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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another great MLB DFS slate. Most people will have their eyes on the NFL today, so let's strike while everyone else is asleep at the wheel with baseball. I'm locking in on this 10-game slate!
We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix features some nice top-end and midrange options, which will certainly lead to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/22/2024 and the slate locking at 1:10 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Skenes vs. Cincinnati Reds ($10.3K DK, $11K FD)
Paul Skenes is my preferred play at pitcher today. Through 21 starts, he boasts an outstanding 2.53 xERA and a 2.64 xFIP. That dominance includes a .199 xBA, .255 xwOBA, and, most impressively, a 32.2% strikeout rate. There were concerns about Skenes' having workload restrictions, but he has averaged 100 pitches across his three September outings.
Despite a few imposing names, the Cincinnati Reds bring a relatively mediocre offense into play today. They are plating a middling 4.4 runs per game on the season. Further, Cincinnati has had a more challenging time against right-handed pitching this season, posting a 92 wRC+ alongside a generous 24.9% strikeout rate.
Spencer Arrighetti vs. Los Angeles Angels ($8.1K DK, $9.4K FD)
Though he is considerably more volatile than Paul Skenes, Spencer Arrighetti is a much more affordable alternative with a comparable ceiling. Through 27 starts, Arrighetti carries a respectable 4.00 xERA and a 4.05 xFIP. While he does get touched up from time to time, Arrighetti's 26.9% strikeout rate illustrates his worthwhile upside.
The reason Arrighetti looks particularly good today is his matchup with the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels rank among baseball's worst offenses, scoring only 3.9 runs per game on the season. Their struggles include a horrible 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the end of July, alongside a bloated 26.5% strikeout rate.
Also Consider: Blake Snell, Bryan Woo
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson - 1B, ATL vs. Darren McCaughan ($5.3K DK, $3.7K FD)
2024 has been underwhelming by Matt Olson's standard, but his bat has come alive of late. The 30-year-old homered four times in his last five games, bringing him to 29 total on the year. While it's a far cry from the 52-home run mark Olson set in 2023, his 12.8% barrel rate, .461 xSLG, and 46.9% hard-hit rate all suggest he remains a well-above-average slugger.
Have yourself a day, Matt Olson 👏
The @Braves are back in front. pic.twitter.com/ND01tsiEAn
— MLB (@MLB) September 21, 2024
It's reasonable to deduce that Darren McCaughan is the worst pitcher on this slate. Through 33 innings pitched this season, he sports a 6.13 xERA and a 6.36 xFIP, part of a career 7.47 ERA. Though the sample size is somewhat brief, McCaughan has been lit up by opposing hitters to the tune of a .513 xSLG and a .288 xBA.
Willy Adames - SS, MIL vs. Jordan Montgomery ($4.5K DK, $3.7K FD)
Willy Adames has been hot at the plate this summer, slugging .529 with a 134 wRC+ and 17 home runs since the All-Star break. Overall, he's up to a .791 OPS with a career-high 32 home runs this season. Adames' success consists of a .478 xSLG, 12.3% barrel rate, and a .345 xwOBA.
Jordan Montgomery will be a preferred pitcher to stack against on this slate. He's floundered his way to a 5.21 xERA over 24 appearances this season. Montgomery has surrendered a generous .456 xSLG, .291 xBA, and a 41.4% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters.
Jonathan Aranda - 1B/2B, TB vs. Chris Bassitt ($2.9K DK, $2.5K FD)
For value, Jonathan Aranda is the best punt play. He has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 starts, smashing four home runs during that span. While Aranda has largely struggled in the majors before recently, he showcased a prolific hitting prowess in the minor leagues. Across 92 games in Triple-A last season, Aranda posted a 1.062 OPS with 25 home runs.
Jonathan Aranda SAY HIS NAME 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/V1tVi5dgEW
— Bally Sports Sun: Rays (@BallyRays) September 21, 2024
Chris Bassitt's name-brand value doesn't quite match up to his actual talent level anymore these days. Over 30 starts, he carries a career-worst 4.41 xERA and a 4.17 xFIP. Left-handed hitters have been particularly brutal against Bassitt, generating a .474 slugging percentage.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Michael Harris II - OF, ATL vs. Darren McCaughan ($4.4K DK, $3.3K FD)
Michael Harris II is another great Atlanta Braves bat with which to attack Darren McGaughan. Though Harris' season has been interrupted by injuries, he is as hot as ever right now, posting a .907 OPS with seven home runs and a 143 wRC+ for the month of September. His success includes a .453 xSLG, .280 xBA, 10% barrel rate, and a 45.8% hard-hit rate.
Jackson Chourio - OF, MIL vs. Jordan Montgomery ($4.2K DK, $3.6K FD)
Jackson Chourio is another Milwaukee Brewers bat who has really hit his stride. Since the All-Star break, the 20-year-old boasts an outstanding .941 OPS with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 156 wRC+. Chourio should be a core piece of any Brewers stack.
Pavin Smith - OF, ARI vs. Frankie Montas ($3.5K DK, $2.9K FD)
Pavin's Smith's season has been largely lost to injury, but he has quietly been one of baseball's hottest since returning to the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup. Smith sports an outstanding 1.058 OPS for the month of September with five home runs and a 183 wRC+. That success consists of a .543 xSLG, a 14% barrel rate, and a 45% hard-hit rate.
Frankie Montas is certainly not the worst pitcher on this slate, but he's no stranger to getting touched up. Through 28 starts, he owns a mediocre 4.47 xERA and a 4.25 xFIP. Montas has surrendered a .422 xSLG, 8.4% barrel rate, and a 42.2% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Atlanta Braves vs. Darren McCaughan
- Favorite Plays: Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies
2. Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jordan Montgomery
- Favorite Plays: Willy Adames, William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Rhys Hoskins
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