RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Start in 12+ Team Leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: Low-End TE1 or FLEX Option
ANALYSIS: Dalton Kincaid has underperformed so far to start the 2024 NFL Season. In his first game, he was virtually invisible, catching one ball for 11 yards. In his second game, he was better but still not great, catching four balls for 33 yards. Although this is surprising, given his high ranks and ADP entering the season, it is far too early for fantasy managers to start thinking about benching Kincaid.
Kincaid has not been playing poorly per se but has rather been a victim of his team’s scheme to start the season. Kincaid ranks second on his team in targets (six) and receptions (five) behind Khalil Shakir.
The Buffalo Bills have stuck with a run-first approach in their first two games. This makes sense, as the two teams they faced, the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, have strong passing defenses rather than weak rushing defenses.
Week 3 will bring a whole new script as the Bills face the Jacksonville Jaguars. Through their first two games, the Jaguars rank 30th in passing defense (145.5) but 11th in rushing defense (103).
This should result in the Bills needing to rely more on their passing game. Since Kincaid is amongst the Bills’ most targeted receivers, he is in a position to have his best game of the season. Although he has (temporarily) lost his value as an elite tight end, fantasy managers who drafted him high should continue to start him in Week 3 as the signs point to a potential breakout.
Alright... Dalton Kincaid might be really good.
Bills asked him to run intermediate and downfield routes against man coverage as a rookie. Don't see that often. pic.twitter.com/9HXWMqXwPh
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 14, 2024
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