RADIO
There are only 10 FBS vs. FCS matchups this week, so that means I have more picks to make! I'm all for that! I'm feeling good after a strong week last week. There are only two more games this week, but we still have a healthy 54-game week.
I'm only picking FBS vs. FBS games because even if casinos have a line on the FBS vs. FCS matchups, the spreads are wild enough to drive us away. Well ... most of us. I'll pick my 50 games today and be happy. I'm off to a good start so far. Let's keep it up!
I'm up 55 betting points on the casinos in three-plus weeks this year. Let's make some more money! There are some good spots this week!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 4 (9/21/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Marshall at (3) Ohio State (-39.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ohio State still isn't really built to cover lines like this, but I'm not sure Marshall is any better than the MAC teams the Buckeyes have been slaughtering. Give me Brutus, but I'm not touching this.
North Carolina State at (21) Clemson (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pack usually play Clemson tough, but this is a road game and the Pack has looked nothing short of terrible this year. Give me Clemson at home.
Florida (-5.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yeah...okay. Toledo just rolled the Bulldogs in a sea of cowbells. I don't care how down Florida is right now, this is too low. CHOMP!
Charlotte at Indiana (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Hoosiers covered UCLA by this in L.A. They shouldn't have a problem doing the same to Charlotte at home.
James Madison at North Carolina (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Tar Heels looked different (in a good way) with veteran Jacolby Criswell under center. The Conner Harrell era is already over in Chapel Hill...at least for now.
North Carolina is expected to shift to Jacolby Criswell as its starting QB when it faces JMU tomorrow, a source tells @247sports/@cbssports.
Criswell, a former four-star recruit who signed with UNC in 2020, returned to the Tar Heels this offseason after a year at Arkansas.… pic.twitter.com/JW1xvaSlo6
— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) September 20, 2024
I don't like that half. The Dukes can't stop Omarion Hampton, but UNC struggled with NC Central for a while last week. I'll take JMU, but I'm not touching this one either.
Houston at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down two points, but I'm unsure why. Houston walloping Rice in the Bayou Bucket game isn't of any significance. I'll take the Bearcats at home for anything under a touchdown.
Kansas at West Virginia (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
These were two of my Big 12 (14) dark horses coming into the season. Now I see they were just covered in mud. I still like Kansas, but I'm not nearly as confident in them as I once was.
Tulane (-2.5) at Louisiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Smacking Kennesaw State in the first FBS home game for the Owls isn't much of an achievement. Tulane rolls!
Rice at Army (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Army under a TD at home? Sure! I'll take that bet!
It might be time to talk to your kids about a ranked Army Football team⚔️ @ArmyWP_Football @ArmyFootballPR / @SSN_Army
(? via @PickettsPool)
pic.twitter.com/PnWDFqJ4db— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) September 20, 2024
Ohio at Kentucky (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this line would come out hot after Kentucky almost beat Georgia, but this offense is not built to cover lines like this. I'll take Ohio and the points.
Ball State at Central Michigan (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I think I would be more comfortable betting the over on Joe Labas interceptions. Well...maybe not. This will be an ugly game, but the Chips should win by a TD or so.
Arkansas State at (20) Iowa State (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm telling you right now, that hook is gonna get me. I'm still on ISU. Give me the Cyclones.
Virginia (-3.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I told you the Pick Em public was high. Vegas knows what's going on. I don't like the half so I'll lower the bet, but I still like the Wahoos.
Utah State (-6.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
At this point, I'm just hoping UMass doesn't play Temple. Give me the Aggies.
Southern Mississippi at Jacksonville State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line feels like a sucker bet either way. Neither team is as good as last year, but I guess the Gamecocks are less bad (and they're at home). Give me JSU.
Kent State at (10) Penn State (-48.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tennessee stomping the Flashes is inflating this line. Penn State isn't built to cover this spread, nor do they care to. I'll take Kent and the points.
(11) USC (-5.5) at (18) Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is tanking after opening at -10.5. USC is not Texas nor do they pretend to be, but I still think that Jo'Quavious Marks is the perfect back to attack Michigan with. The quarterback inefficiency for the Wolverines is going to cost them this game as well. Give me USC.
UCLA at (16) LSU (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is LSU as good as Indiana? They should be. Give me the Tigers.
Miami (OH) at (17) Notre Dame (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many. The Redhawks are what Purdue wants to be when they grow up.
Georgia Tech at (19) Louisville (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping that the line wouldn't get up this high. I still like Louisville, but I'm lowering the bet.
Buffalo at (23) Northern Illinois (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams control the ball and NIU plays strong defense. That's not an avenue for a high-scoring game. I feel like this is a bit too high. Give me Buffalo and the points.
Arkansas at Auburn (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Does Hank Brown make that much of a difference? Maybe. I'll take the Hogs, but I have little confidence in this.
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kyron Drones hasn't been a difference-maker for the Hokies yet and it's not going to start against a defense like this. Kyle Monongai is in for a huge game. Rutgers straight up!
Arizona State at Texas Tech (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Red Raiders won't have three scoring drives of under a minute in a quarter this game because the Sun Devils like to hold the ball for half the quarter. This is a contrast of styles, but I still like the Fun Devils outright in Lubbock. They are similar to the Washington State team that throttled Tech in Pullman.
Memphis (-9.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that feels high. Beating FSU in Tallahassee may not be that much of an achievement this year. Give me Navy.
(12) Utah at (14) Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This opened with Utah favored, but many don't have confidence in Cam Rising anymore. I do. Give me the Utes!
Duke (-14.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't trust that half at all. I really don't like this line. Give me Duke, but I wouldn't bet this with your money.
Vanderbilt at (7) Missouri (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I believe it. M!I!Z! (Z!O!U!).
TCU (-2.5) at SMU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Battle for the Iron Skillet on CW. What is this world coming to? I don't care...at least I get to watch this. Give me TCU.
From the death penalty to a new era. This team is leveraging NIL to make waves in college football.
I’m calling SMU vs. TCU this weekend on @TheCW. THE BATTLE FOR THE IRON SKILLET 🍳 @TheCW_Sports pic.twitter.com/TF5I0ynBME
— Max Browne (@MaxBrowne4) September 19, 2024
UTEP at Colorado State (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wow...too low. Even if the Rams are without Tory Horton, UTEP is a disaster. Give me CSU.
East Carolina at Liberty (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
They say home-field advantage is worth a touchdown, so that's saying these two teams are even on a neutral field. I don't think so. Flame on!
(8) Miami (FL) (-16.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oooh...this game is in Tampa! It's going to be fun, but USF will run out of gas like they did against Bama. Give me Miami.
Northwestern at Washington (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Cougars broke Vegas. This line is all over the place even at casinos just blocks apart. It's still as low as 10 in places after opening at 9.5, but I've seen it as high as 12.5.
Whenever there is this much play in a line, my first instinct is to leave it alone. I'll take Northwestern because of their solid defense, but I'm not betting on this one.
Florida Atlantic at Connecticut (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wait...UConn is favored? Two weeks after UMass was favored? Is Hell frozen? Give me FAU.
California at Florida State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vegas may still believe but I don't. The curse is real. Give me Cal!
Tulsa at Louisiana Tech (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tech looked good last week. I'll take the Bulldogs.
New Mexico State at Sam Houston (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow...this line has jumped four points and I had no idea what to do with it before it jumped. My instincts say this is too many. Give me the Aggies, I guess...
Toledo (-2.5) at Western Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I wasn't sure about the Rockets in the early going, but I'm coming around. They looked great in StarkVegas last week. Give me Toledo again.
Wyoming at North Texas (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is still too low. Wyoming would be a better team if they just ran the ball 70 times a game and went home. They have the worst QB situation in the country.
(6) Tennessee (-6.5) at (15) Oklahoma
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to believe this is a winnable game for us, but I don't. We can't run the ball and Jackson Arnold is way too inconsistent to rely on at this point.
From the death penalty to a new era. This team is leveraging NIL to make waves in college football.
I’m calling SMU vs. TCU this weekend on @TheCW. THE BATTLE FOR THE IRON SKILLET 🍳 @TheCW_Sports pic.twitter.com/TF5I0ynBME
— Max Browne (@MaxBrowne4) September 19, 2024
It's going to hurt to have Josh Heupel come back to Norman and win for a team other than Oklahoma, but I'm afraid it happens. I'll be hoping it doesn't, but since my goal is to help you win money, I'm taking the Vols. This feels low.
Bowling Green at (25) Texas A&M (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nah, this is too many. The Falcons hung with Penn State. They can hang with the Aggies too.
Akron at South Carolina (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is warranted, but I do wonder just how much the Gamecocks will push LaNorris Sellers in this one. I'm leaving it alone. Give me SC, I guess.
Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Minnesota is just good enough to win this game if everything breaks right. That's a big if. Give me Iowa.
Georgia Southern at (5) Mississippi (-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
To quote Robert Stack in Beavis And Butt-Head Do America; "Don't stop until you reach the back of his teeth." This gets ugly. Ole Miss rolls.
Louisiana-Monroe at (1) Texas (-44.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It doesn't matter if Quinn Ewers plays or not. This is going to be total domination for Texas.
Michigan State at Boston College (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is the Red Bandanna game. Michigan State has no chance!
Richt on the Red Bandanna tradition:
"When I was here as the Miami coach, and we played in the Red Bandanna, it is so meaningful to the fans. When you're an opposing team hearing the story for the first time, it kinda softens you up. I think the fans are going to be jacked up."
— Graham Dietz (@graham_dietz) September 20, 2024
Baylor at Colorado (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Baylor only hung with Utah because Cam Rising got hurt. I still like the Ralphies here.
Fresno State (-13.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not sure why this line is dropping. Fresno rolls!
Purdue at Oregon State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Reser Stadium at night is a totally different vibe.
(13) Kansas State (-6.5) at BYU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Considering K-State just blasted Arizona, this feels low. Here Kitty Kitty!
There are 54 total games this week. I chickened out with 10 minimum bets this week. I have flatlined at 20 two-point bets. I still ended up with 14 three-pointers. I have seven four-point bets this week and maxed out three. I went a little lighter this week, but there aren't as many that I'm confident in.
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