RADIO
What a wild and wacky Week 2. We saw a few big upsets, blown leads, and had a slew of injuries. The ups and downs are all part of the roller-coaster ride that is the NFL season.
We had some pretty good results with last week’s boom/bust calls. Malik Nabers exploded for a career day, while James Conner and Brock Bowers both enjoyed top-10 weeks. D'Andre Swift and Kyle Pitts fell short of expectations, so we got those bust calls correct. We struck out listing Calvin Ridley a bust after he found the end zone twice and finished as the WR7. Such is life in the world of fantasy football! Let’s run it back for another week and see who’s primed for a big day and who’s set to flop.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s get into our boom/bust picks for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
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Week 3 Fantasy Football Booms
Zamir White - RB, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers
It’s been a tough start to the season for White. He was a very polarizing pick in drafts and two weeks into the season, White’s doubters have been correct. However, a Week 3 match against the Carolina Panthers' porous run defense is just what the doctor ordered.
Carolina ranks 27th in defensive rush DVOA, per FTN Fantasy, and ranks 26th in PFF’s rushing defense grade. It has also allowed 199.5 rush yards per game, which is the second-worst in the league.
While White has disappointed thus far, head coach Antonio Pierce seems firmly committed to White as his RB1 and wants to keep giving him the rock.
#Raiders HC Antonio Pierce on Zamir White:
“I’m gonna keep pumping him up. Our goal is to get 20+ touches with him. That was the goal this week, didn’t happen. That’s gonna be the goal this week and every week while he’s the starting running back and I’m here.”
Pierce has a 90%… pic.twitter.com/xLEbPRMs4a
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 16, 2024
This game is the ultimate litmus test. If White fails in this matchup, then it’s not happening this year. I don’t expect that to be the case this week. Fire up White as a strong RB2 or flex play. He should have his best game of the season.
Diontae Johnson - WR, Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders
Johnson has a new life now that sophomore quarterback Bryce Young has been sent to the bench. Andy Dalton has his flaws, but he’s a competent passer who has always supported fantasy-relevant wide receivers. In his Week 3 start last year, Dalton helped guide Adam Thielen to a WR3 finish with an 11-145-1 line on 14 targets.
Johnson goes up against a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in defensive pass DVOA and 20th in DVOA against opposing teams’ WR1. Johnson could be set to smash with Dalton at the helm.
It was a rough first two games, but we must give a pass because the quarterback play was so bad. Dalton’s presence provides hope for this offense. We should see this unit operate at a much higher level, and Johnson will be a clear beneficiary. He’s got a good matchup this week and we should see him receive true WR1 usage.
Johnson can be started as a WR3 or flex play with the potential for much more.
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Aiyuk is another player who’s gotten off to a slow start. Through two games, Aiyuk has caught just six passes for 71 yards and is the PPR WR59.
He gets to face a Los Angeles Rams secondary in Week 3 that allows the ninth-most passing yards per game and just allowed rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. to torch it for 4-130-2 last week.
With Deebo Samuel Sr. expected to miss multiple weeks with a calf injury, Aiyuk is locked in as San Francisco’s top receiver. He should see plenty of targets and could explode against a Los Angeles defense that ranks 27th in defensive pass DVOA.
Bottom line -- this is a great get-right spot for Aiyuk. The 49ers should have a field day against the Rams defense and move the ball however they want. Expect Aiyuk to have his best game of the season, eclipse 100 receiving yards, and maybe find the end zone once or twice.
Zack Moss - RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Commanders
Moss has been Cincinnati's clear RB1 as he’s eclipsed a 65% snap share in both games this year and has received 24 out of 36 total running back touches.
The results haven’t quite been there yet, but bigger days are coming. Moss draws a matchup with the Washington Commanders, and it’s a good opportunity for him to get rolling.
Washington has allowed RB16 and RB22 finishes to Rachaad White and Devin Singletary. With Moss’s workload, those feel like a very safe floor for him in this game. Cincinnati should be playing from ahead for much of the contest and that will mean ample opportunities for Moss.
Additionally, the Bengals offensive line should match up well against Washington’s defensive front. Cincinnati draws the sixth-best offensive line advantage this week, per PFF. That is another point in Moss’s favor.
He's a good RB2 or flex play this week. We might even see a ceiling game with the right game script.
Week 3 Fantasy Football Busts
Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Nabers is coming off a fantastic effort in Week 2. He posted a 10-127-1 line playing against the Washington Commanders.
Malik Nabers in the first half: 5 catches, 73 yards and his first career TD. pic.twitter.com/gg4AtykjbK
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 15, 2024
Things will be different in this game, though. Cleveland’s defense is much different compared to Washington's. The Browns rank ninth in PFF passing coverage grade and only allow 179.5 passing yards per game.
Daniel Jones was effective enough last week to guide Nabers to a WR3 finish. However, Jones didn’t even play that well against the Commanders' Swiss cheese secondary. He only threw for 178 yards and was PFF’s 18th-highest-graded passer in Week 2. It’s likely Jones struggles against this Browns defense.
If you’ve got another option at receiver, you should consider pivoting to them and leaving Nabers on your bench for Week 3.
James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions
Conner has gotten off to a fast start with RB7 and RB8 finishes.
James Conner touchdown and he’s up to 16.7 points on the day!! pic.twitter.com/K62I6dmSxH
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) September 15, 2024
However, he goes up against a Detroit Lions defense that is very stout against the run. Per CBS Sports, the Lions have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year, and they rank ninth in defensive rushing DVOA.
Conner’s been very good so far this year, so we can’t recommend a full sit unless you’ve got a strong option behind him. He can still find the end zone or get enough work as a pass-catcher to salvage his fantasy day. But owners will want to temper expectations and know this is a bad matchup for Conner and the Arizona offensive line.
Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
With starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa going on injured reserve, we have to downgrade all the Miami skill players. It’s a big drop-off from Tagovailoa to Skylar Thompson and, not surprisingly, Miami’s receivers have suffered whenever Tagovailoa has missed action.
Hate to do this but ...
Tyreek Hill averages is Skylar Thompson's 3 full games in 2022:
9.0 targets
5.3 catches
46.3 yards
0 TDsAnd WR Jaylen Waddle:
5.3 targets
3.7 catches
37.0 yards
0 TDs— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 13, 2024
With Seattle only allowing only 128.5 passing yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers, this was already going to be a tough matchup for Waddle. Throw a backup quarterback into the mix, and he becomes an easy sit.
Maybe Thompson can surprise us and keep the offense going, but that’s something we are going to have to see to believe.
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