RADIO
Take a deep breath. This is a mantra most fantasy managers have to repeat to themselves at some point or another. Perhaps there is no better time to use it than after Week 1. This is especially true for players whose film and metrics are great, yet their usage or statistics are disappointing.
One such player is my IDP darling, Ivan Pace Jr., who tallied a disappointing 4.5 total tackles against the Giants. Worse, he played just 55% of Minnesota's defensive snaps, matching a trend of inconsistent usage dating back to last year. It is concerning when the Vikings play Pace for full games and laud his performance yet intermittently sit him for large chunks of other contests.
It is advisable to take a breath on Pace and hope his time off was due to the game script. His film remains stellar, with the undersized linebacker chronically in position to make a play even when he isn’t the closer. The metrics back this up, with Pace, stopping 18.5% of the Giants' run plays and finishing as the second-best run-defending LB in PFF's Week 1 grades.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Boye Mafe, DL, Seattle Seahawks
Mafe was the 63rd most rostered DL in IDP leagues going into Week 1. Then he logged the third most quarterback pressures of any defensive lineman on opening weekend.
Now Mafe has a quality matchup against a Patriots offensive line that surrendered 13 quarterback pressures last week. While the Bengals didn’t get home against New England, they pressured Jacoby Brissett regularly. This is a solid matchup for an ascending Mafe.
Stream: Quay Walker, LB, Green Bay Packers
Quay Walker is the 18th most-started LB in fantasy. He is currently started in fewer leagues than Bobby Wagner, Ernest Jones, and Lavonte David. In fact, Walker is on waivers or on the bench in 66% of ESPN leagues. That’s too low, given the matchup and the talent.
With the Colts on tap, Walker should be a top-ten play this week. The Colts are one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL, especially with Anthony Richardson under center. Worse, the Packers are starting a quarterback (Malik Willis) who has never thrown for over 100 yards.
This should be a very run-heavy script on both sides of the ball, which is good for opposing linebackers. The only risk here is that the slow pace of the game results in a record-low number of plays.
Huge hit by Quay Walker on DeVonta Smith #NFL pic.twitter.com/YMCWSDD716
— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhifer) September 7, 2024
Fade: Ernest Jones, LB, Tennessee Titans
Jones was my LB Faller of the Week in our Week 1 IDP Rankings column, largely because of concerns he would not see a full workload so early after being traded. These fears proved valid, as Jones saw just 46% of the Titans' snaps and managed four Standard fantasy points in a matchup where his defense actually looked very good.
While this former Ram's numbers and playing time will inevitably go up, it's hard to know how much and when that happens. The odds are that you will have to play him in deeper IDP leagues, and he will be back to LB1 status by Week 5 or so. However, for now, it's tough to trust him as a top-15 option until we see him play a full snap share.
Fade: Trevon Diggs, DB, Dallas Cowboys
Diggs is currently the 22nd most rostered DB in fantasy, largely because he has a propensity to snag interceptions. In fact, Diggs has derived 34% of his fantasy points from interceptions in his career. Worse, 55% of his fantasy points have come from INTs or PDs.
Long story short, Diggs derives most of his fantasy value from getting his hands on the football. That's bad news since Derek Carr tied for the third-fewest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL last season, and he had just one such play in Week 1. Carr simply doesn't force the ball to any target and will often ignore his lead receiver if covered.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Zaven Collins, DL/LB, Arizona Cardinals
The Los Angeles Rams are shaping up to be one of the most attractive pass rush matchups in the NFL. In Week 1, they surrendered the week’s top-graded pass rush performance to Aidan Hutchinson, who won 47% of his pass rush matchups thanks to the Rams being down three offensive tackles and Steve Avila leaving early.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals are the beneficiaries of this juicy matchup this week. While you would love to see a stud like Micah Parsons tee off on this Rams squad, Arizona has no compelling edge rushers. Collins is the best we can hope for, as he is often a solid source of tackles. Do not expect him to put up elite pass rush numbers, though.
Stream: Daron Payne, DL, Washington Commanders
After logging an unsustainable 11.5 sacks two seasons ago, Payne has registered just four quarterback takedowns in his past 18 games. That said, he registered five quarterback pressures in Week 1 and has a premium matchup in Week 2.
While PFF positively grades the Giants' pass blocking from Week 1, anyone who watched the game knows Daniel Jones was constantly under pressure. The worst pressure came from the interior, where John Michael Schmitz and Greg Van Roten were abysmal. For the 8% of managers who roster Payne, this matchup is why you're holding onto him.
Fade: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, DB, New York Jets
Sauce Gardner is currently the 30th most-started DB in fantasy. He is currently in more fantasy lineups than Julian Blackmon, Jevon Holland, Jordan Whitehead, and Dax Hill. He's also on more rosters than Talanoa Hufanga, who has much more value as a bench stash.
Gardner is an elite cover corner, which is great for real football. For fantasy purposes, opponents usually avoid him. Worse, the Jets rarely use Sauce in shadow coverage. However, even if Gang Green did shadow their top defender, he’d still be a fade this week.
While the Titans ranked tenth in pass attempts in Week 1, and Will Levis is always a threat to throw multiple picks, this matchup is less than ideal. The Titans were in the middle of the pack in offensive plays last week, and Levis has no history of targeting one side of the field over the other. It's hard to imagine Tennessee won't just avoid Sauce, like most do.
Fade: Rashan Gary, DL, Green Bay Packers
Gary is usually an automatic start in deeper leagues and a rotational option in shallow ones. He has a risky matchup against the Colts, though.
As we have already mentioned, the Colts ran the fewest offensive plays in Week 1. Worse, the Packers project to run the fewest in Week 2 with Malik Willis as their starting quarterback. That spells poor volume.
The truly bad news for Gary is that the Colts' offensive line actually played very well last week, grading as PFF's fourth-best pass-blocking unit while surrendering just five pressures. On top of that, Richardson’s career sack rate is just 1.8, which would have been good for eighth lowest in the NFL in 2023.
I’m convinced these networks be lying about stats for clicks, Rashan Gary blew right past him for a sack😂#GoPackGo https://t.co/spImEIm3XZ pic.twitter.com/FaaO8joWa3
— Good Fella Pack🧀 (@LockEmUpHerb) September 11, 2024
Defenders Worth Stashing
Keion White, DL/LB, New England Patriots
White was an older prospect coming out of Georgia Tech, but he has a massive frame and is incredibly athletic for his size. On Sunday, he had the first big game of his NFL career, notching three sacks against a Bengals offensive line missing a starting tackle.
While you don't want to overreact to White's lone stellar performance, Jerod Mayo's defense looked like it didn't miss Bill Belichick very much, and their scheme is often pass-rusher friendly. Given his upside and scheme, White is available in 99.7% of IDP leagues and is worth a stash in deeper formats.
DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Dallas Cowboys
A week ago, Overshown was just the 70th most rostered LB in fantasy. After a strong Week 1 performance, his roster rate went up and made him the 41st most rostered LB. The potential for the former Longhorn to become a consistent fantasy contributor means he should still be rostered in more leagues, though.
Coming out of the University of Texas, Overshown was an undersized but athletic and instinctive prospect. He’s gotten stronger as a pro, curing one of the major concerns some had about him. Overshown is now a quality starter on a good defense. He also finished as the 12th highest-scoring LB in Week 1 despite playing just 58% of the snaps.
If you add Overshown, he will be a solid IDPFLEX player this week. The Saints ran the 12th most offensive plays in Week 1 despite dominating Carolina all game. They are also a team that runs much of their offense through their tight ends and running backs, meaning volume should not be a problem for Dallas linebackers.
#Cowboys’ LB DeMarvion Overshown covered over 14 yards in only 2.8 seconds. That’s a closing speed of 5 yards/sec 🤯
🔗 https://t.co/UFKB2eX8pa pic.twitter.com/SMbc7cMW0R
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 8, 2024
Payton Wilson, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
At the risk of nauseating readers with constant praise for Wilson, it must be noted that he was dropped in nearly half the leagues he was rostered in this week. His current roster rate is just 1.6%, and he is currently being dropped from the analyst IDP dynasties that I am a part of. He is a must-stash in dynasty and has a stronghold in redraft.
While the initial snap share for Wilson wasn't ideal, his film continues to be terrific. He will eventually outplay Elandon Roberts and earn a full-time role. With his athleticism and instincts, Wilson will be a high-caliber IDP option in time.
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