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Welcome to The Lookahead, a weekly Fantasy Baseball column. This week we rank the 2025 first-rounders.
As American icon and fount of homespun wisdom Dolly Parton once said, “If you don’t like the road you’re walking, start paving another one.”
As we move into mid-September, the writing is on the wall that most fantasy managers won't be winning season-long roto leagues or dominating playoffs this year. We will conduct post-mortems in due time, but it’s never too early to look forward.
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“Meatball” Draft Board
Perhaps Dolly inspired the recent “too early Meatball draft” organized by Rob DiPietro of the Pull Hitter podcast and Patreon (@deadpullhitter on X). Featuring industry analysts and NFBC sharps, 15 owners drafted the opening 11 rounds of the first NFBC Draft Champions League of 2025. Here’s the board:
Taking a cue from Dolly and the Meatballs, let’s start sketching the outlines of our own new roads by “drafting” the first round of 2025.
Another year, another MVP on deck for Ohtani. He is more than compensating for not pitching by going 40/40 in record time and pacing for MLB’s first 50/50 season while flying past 200 runs plus RBI with a .292 average. He’s a god.
This past draft season, fears regarding his elbow surgery recovery and the Ippei Mizuhara gambling scandal pushed Ohtani down boards to the late first or early second round in most drafts. That looks quite silly now as he’s been the second-most valuable roto player this season by earned auction value.
Ohtani will again pitch every six days in 2025. Could this affect his hitting and make him less valuable? Maybe, but remember: when last pitching full time in 2023, Ohtani had a higher OPS (1.066) than he does this year as a hitter only (.993). In addition, if one of our top pitchers goes down Ohtani offers contingent value to fill that void.
Downside: Pitching does add another layer of risk; there’s a chance we see a redux of 2023 when a brilliant season was cut short by a major elbow injury. May Ohtani run less to protect that arm?
Fantasy Bottom Line: Don’t overcomplicate this; the best player in baseball is also the top option for fantasy.
Witt has become, quite simply, the best all-around player in baseball (non-Ohtani division). For some perspective, as a hitter he has a higher barrel rate than Vlad Guerrero (14.8%), better zone contact (84.4%), and a lower strikeout rate than Juan Soto (15.1%), and oh, by the way, the highest sprint speed in MLB (30.4 fps).
The results are even more studly than the metrics. After just missing a 30/50 season last year, Witt is hitting .335/.388/.601 with 30 home runs and 28 stolen bases. He’s running less but slugging more this year and has already surpassed 215 combined runs plus RBI. He actually lowered the strikeout rate despite hitting the ball harder than ever. That’s Acuñaesque.
Witt should eclipse 30/30 while leading the majors in batting average at the top of a frisky lineup. At age 24, he hasn’t even hit his prime yet! We wouldn’t blame anyone for taking him first overall (and we may even do it).
Downside: Basically none. The Royals lineup could regress a bit, giving Witt a lower run-production ceiling than other top picks.
Fantasy Bottom Line: A perfect combination of floor and upside makes Witt a worthy top 3 choice in any format.
3. Aaron Judge
This slot is meant as no slight to Judge, who will likely hit 55 home runs and has finished No. 1 on player raters in two of the last three seasons. His barrel rate supremacy—26%, with no one else above 21%—is truly Ruthian.
Judge also proved he’s no one-trick Clydesdale by raising his line drives (up 3%) to support the .322 average he’s sporting (.310 xBA). Judge performs “worst” against breaking balls with a mere .568 slugging—that’s almost equal to Soto’s overall number. The Yankees lineup has been decently competent beyond its Big 2 and Judge has cashed in to the tune of a 140 RBI pace.
A realistic ceiling of 10 steals is the reason we place him third; Ohtani and Witt provide a more well-rounded category balance and are no slouches in the run-producing stats.
Downside: Players of Judge’s size are viewed as more likely to suffer injuries, which may move him down for some—although he’s pacing to exceed 630 plate appearances for the third time in the last four seasons.
Fantasy Bottom Line: Power is the most precious commodity in Fantasy and Judge is unparalleled at providing it; No. 1 in points leagues.
The top three seem fairly obvious, but one could argue any order for picks 4-7 and beyond. Those decisions will come down to one’s own calculus regarding upside/safety.
Through the All-Star break, Gunnar reigned supreme among shortstops with 28 home runs and 14 steals—good for a 168 wRC+ to Witt’s 151. Henderson slowed in July but picked it up again and overall has a .282/.367/.540 slash line and 11% walk rate. He’s entrenched atop the potent Orioles offense and is pacing for nearly 40 homers and 20 steals with almost 220 runs plus RBI. He’s been durable since being called to the majors. Moreover, like Witt, at just 23 years old we almost certainly have not yet seen Henderson’s best. Could he go 45/25 next year?
Downside: Gunnar is more slugger than Witt, and as players with Henderson’s frame age, they often don’t continue stealing bases at rates fantasy managers covet. The floor here is rock solid, but no one should be surprised if drafters go for higher upside profiles.
Fantasy Bottom Line: Gunnar provides a well-balanced Fantasy profile with room to grow; he’s an easy top-10 pick next year.
Speaking of sky-high profiles, it’s tempting to draft De La Cruz as high as second or third. Elly has maintained roughly a .260 batting average with 23 homers and 62 steals, resoundingly answering critics who questioned whether he could survive the swing and miss in his profile (“but he could get sent back to the minors” looks sillier than the Ohtani fears in retrospect).
Yes, Elly began the season with a 34% strikeout rate through the first three weeks. Since April 23 it’s been 29.7%, a high rate but manageable with a 92 mph average EV and top-of-the-scale speed; he’s held a strong 10% walk rate all season too. Elly’s batting second every day and pacing for 105 runs; the Reds lineup should be improved next year with the expected returns of Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
Also: He’s just 22! Elly made major leaps forward this year. It would be odd if he doesn’t continue to improve, e.g. by converting more of his raw power to homers. A reasonable ceiling is 30/80. A conservative projection would have 20/40 as an absolute floor; even if he hits .250 you’re not kicking yourself with this pick.
Downside: It IS difficult to succeed at baseball striking out almost a third of the time. There’s a chance Elly hits .220 over 700 plate appearances, sinking a category.
Bottom Line: Can we interest you in a top-10 player who’s still a growth stock? Elly’s upside is especially enticing in overall contests.
6. Jose Ramirez
This past draft season we underrated Ramirez (NFBC ADP: 15) due to an unusually low 87 runs and 80 RBI in 2023. He’d produced at least 214 runs + RBI each of the prior two seasons.
This year? Ramirez is already over 200 runs and RBI while pacing for career highs in home runs (34) and stolen bases (37); he’s a hot streak away from 40/40. J Ram still maintains a pristine 12% strikeout rate. He’ll reach 600+ plate appearances for the seventh time in the last eight full seasons.
Downside: Almost none. Ramirez is about to turn 32. Could he run less? Will injuries start to creep in?
Fantasy Bottom Line: Ramirez’s profile is as durable as it gets; pencil in top 10 production and let others take risks in the first round.
7. Kyle Tucker
Prior to a severe shin injury in early June—finally revealed to be a fracture in September—Tucker looked to be improving on what was already a top 10 hitter profile, with 19 home runs and 10 steals over the first 10 weeks (nearly a 50/30 pace).
Tucker posted consecutive 25+/25+ seasons with good batting averages in 2022 and 2023. He walks a ton (17%) and hits like a slugger but doesn’t strike out like one (16%). The Statcast and expected metrics are excellent (13% barrel rate, 91 avg EV, .407 xwOBA). Before this season he’d never missed significant time. He’ll be 28 next season, squarely in his prime, and bats in the top four of a strong lineup.
Downside: Tucker’s shin injury took a lengthy, mysterious turn. He finally made it back to the lineup in September, but we don’t yet know if this issue will nag him in the future; drafters looking to mitigate risk may move him down their boards.
Fantasy Bottom Line: Tucker is a standout in both categories and points leagues; if healthy he could go as high as No. 5.
8. Juan Soto
Those same risk-averse drafters may move this guy up. In both real and fantasy terms, Soto is having the best full season of his career: .292/.423/.582 and a career-high 38 home runs with three weeks remaining. That is good for a 185 wRC+, second in MLB. I never liked the Ted Williams comps, but Soto is simply a hitting savant.
Soto has already pulled six more barrels year over year to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch. His barrel rate (20%) is way up while hitting the ball harder than ever (94 EV). Although a fantasy fixture for years, Soto’s only 25; it’s frightening to think he may have not yet reached his ceiling.
Downside: Almost none. Soto’s a pending free agent, and his landing spot could hamper the power production ever so slightly.
Fantasy Bottom Line: Soto is a true four-category monster and easily top 3 in points. We put a healthy Tucker ahead for categories leagues due to the steals, but Soto may have another level justifying top-5 in any format.
9. Mookie Betts
We are definitely in safe, solid territory now. In just over half a season, Betts has posted a .307 average (.920 OPS), 17 HR, 14 SB, and more walks than strikeouts. Betts does not chase (22%) and is a contact machine (87%) in a prime spot for a fantastic lineup. He never fails to produce when healthy.
But Betts isn’t just safe: last year he crushed a huge 39 homers, along with a typically strong .307 average and 230 runs plus RBI. That power explosion did come via an outlier 12% barrel rate—it’s been closer to 8% for his career—which is partly why we have him in the back half of the round now.
Downside: Mookie can do almost anything but we don’t know if he’ll hit for power quite like 2023 or how much he’ll run (averaged 12 SB from 2021-23).
Fantasy Bottom Line: Betts finished 2023 as the No. 4 player so getting him in the back half of the round feels like stealing.
10. Francisco Lindor
Despite playing in New York, Lindor gets overlooked by baseball fans and fantasy players alike; he’s just consistently solid with more upside than credited. Last season Lindor posted his first 30/30 and finished 11th in value per the Fangraphs Player Rater. Yet in March drafts at the NFBC, his ADP was 23.
Lindor has been even better this season, with a .269 average, 30 home runs, 27 steals, and 185 runs plus RBI. Guess where he’s ranked. Yep, 11.
Lindor is posting career-best 13% barrel and 47% hard-hit rates this year. In particular, he’s hitting breaking balls better than ever, with career-best expected batting averages against sliders (.298) and curveballs (.265). So even at 30 years old, he’s improving
Just as important: he plays. Every. Single. Game. Lindor has exceeded 600 plate appearances in seven of the past eight full seasons, and the one time he missed that threshold he exceeded 20/10 in 524 plate appearances. He bats first or second in a good lineup.
Downside: Lindor will not project as a true plus in batting average; since 2021 it’s fluctuated from .230 to .270 to .254 to .270 this season. He will be 31 next year. Could he slow down and run less? Possibly, but his sprint speed is normal and we know stealing bases is as much about willingness and aptitude as it is raw speed.
Fantasy Bottom Line: As with Betts and Soto, Lindor provides rare certainty that may be undervalued even at this draft slot.
Now we steer a bit away from safety with Tatis, one of the few players who could moonwalk to 30/30 and threaten a top-five finish. If drafting from this slot, our second pick would be just two spots away in a 12-teamer, so we could pair Tatis’ upside with an elite power bat (Vlad Guerrero, Yordan Alvarez) or a top-three starting pitcher.
Tatis showed elite skills in his first three seasons, peaking at 40/25 with a .975 OPS in 2021. He returned from injury and PED suspension to post an underwhelming .770 OPS last year.
This season Tatis has performed between those poles, pacing for 28/16 with an .821 OPS before a leg injury sidelined him for over two months. However, under the surface his exit velocities (93) and hard-hit rate (53%) are closer to that huge 2021, and some skills look better: career-best strikeouts (21%), contact rate (76%), and .304 xBA. Maybe he’s not the 40/40 lock many expected a couple of years ago, but Tatis will project like a top-10 hitter and has the upside to finish in the top three.
Downside: Injuries. After missing all of ‘22 due to major shoulder surgery, Tatis was sidelined this year after 80 games with a stress reaction in his thigh. He recently returned to game action so we should have clarity on his health for 2025; some drafters will nevertheless avoid the injury history.
Fantasy Bottom Line: Tatis has No. 1 overall upside; we’ll gladly pounce if injury fears depress the price in 2025.
12. Paul Skenes
Skenes’ meteoric rise and utter dominance as a rookie make him an enticing choice as the first pitcher off the board. Tarik Skubal and Zach Wheeler are legitimately in this discussion too, as would be a healthy Jacob deGrom. Those three have done it longer, but the Pirates phenom has been as good as anyone and has the most room to grow.
Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Skenes ranks second in ERA (2.10), third in xFIP (2.70), fourth in K-BB% (26%), and seventh in WHIP (.99). As a rookie! In addition, he’s already thrown 147.1 professional innings this year and should finish with around 160, so workload won’t be a concern next season.
Skenes has four pitches with a 27% or greater whiff rate. His 99 mph four-seamer is the laggard at “only” 25%. He debuted throwing three pitches—four-seam, slider, “Splinker”—then in June mixed in a changeup (38% whiff) and curveball (33%) to better neutralize lefties.
Downside: Skenes is a pitcher, after all, and the elite velocity that drives his upside is also a major risk factor. Nine of last year’s top 10 starters in fastball velo hit the IL before or during this season; Skenes’ 98.8 mph fastball average is second among starters this year. Others may point to team context and ding Skenes’ wins potential, but as Tarik Skubal showed this year, great pitchers who pitch efficiently into starts can get to 15+ wins even on teams projected closer to a .500 record. Skenes himself has 10 wins in just 20 starts.
Fantasy Bottom Line: Skenes’ blend of elite, demonstrated skills, large frame, and big-time growth potential puts him over the top among pitchers.
Others receiving votes: Tarik Skubal, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Zack Wheeler.
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