College Football Betting Picks: Against The Spread (9/7/24)

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We have 75 games going on this Saturday, but as is customary in the early season, only 47 of them feature FBS vs. FBS teams. Hey, it's still better than the 37 we had last week.

That doesn't concern us. I'm only picking FBS vs. FBS games because even if casinos have a line on the FBS vs. FCS matchups, the spreads are wild enough to drive us away. Well ... most of us. I'll pick my 47 games today and be happy. I came out ahead last week. That's good enough for me!

There are again some marquee matchups today into tonight, but there are other places to make money as well.

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CFB Betting Picks for Week 2 (9/7/24)

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

(3) Texas (-7.5) at (10) Michigan

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I going to have a hard time not betting the farm on this. The line is up four points since it opened, but obviously, the big money is on Texas.

Michigan vs Texas odds FACTS:
- 91% of money line bets are on Texas to win
- 41% of money line money is on Texas to win
- 75% of spread bets are on Texas to cover
- 66% of spread money is on Texas to cover

Saturday is going to be a fun day!

— College Football with Sam (@CFBwSam) September 6, 2024

I'm not going to say that Michigan looked bad on purpose, but it did look vanilla on purpose. The only thing holding me back is the strength of the Michigan defense. If the weather is rainy and windy, that also works against Texas.

Michigan will slow down the game as much as it can, but I'm not sure its offense can do a whole lot against Texas, either. I don't expect Texas to win big, but I do expect it to win by double digits.

Bowling Green at (8) Penn State (-34.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This checks out. I like Terion Stewart, but there is no way the Bowling Green line can handle that Penn State defense. I smell blowout.

Arkansas at (16) Oklahoma State (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I'll take this all day! Arkansas rolling UAPB doesn't impress me. Okie State rolling the top team in FCS does. Pokes by 20!

(17) Kansas State (-9.5) vs. Tulane

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line has dropped a point, which makes me like it a little more. I know this is a road game, but this is a largely unproven Tulane team. Avery Johnson is young, but the rest of the offense is mostly veterans. I'll take K-State.

(23) Georgia Tech (-2.5) at Syracuse

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I expect a close game, but the continuity of Georgia Tech should help a lot here. If this game were later in the season, I might take the Orange. This is a tough ask in Game 2, especially with the Bees having an extra game under their belts. Give me GT.

Akron at Rutgers (-22.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line is off the books in many places, presumably because it still feels too low. Give me Rutgers.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Not so fast. This Pittsburgh offense is balanced now. I'll take Pitt straight up.

Troy at Memphis (-18.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Vegas isn't impressed by Troy losing at home to Nevada. Nevada is a lot better than last year, but I get it. Troy is going through some transition right now. I'll take Memphis, but I don't trust it that much.

Army at Florida Atlantic (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I don't know about this one. Army's offense isn't much (if any) worse than Michigan State's right now. Give me Army.

Northern Illinois at (5) Notre Dame (-28.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow ... I don't like that half. This is probably Notre Dame's toughest remaining game aside from USC. I like the Huskies to bring a fight in this one. They're not going to win, but this should be close until the fourth quarter. By then, the Irish won't pull far enough away to cover.

Baylor at (11) Utah (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line is down three points and maybe it should be. Baylor looked good against Tarleton State. We did see Cameron Rising and Brant Kuithe pick up where they left off. I'm lowering the bet because of that half, but I still like Utah here.

Iowa State at (21) Iowa (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Happy Hate Week! #CyHawk #Hateweek pic.twitter.com/UQLmzjmGQA

— CycloneMomma ❤️??️ (@Cyclone_Momma) September 2, 2024

No juice on the Iowa spread tells me a lot about this. They're practically begging us to bet on Iowa. I like the under 35.5 and the game to stay within a field goal. Give me the Cyclones.

Jacksonville State at Louisville (-28.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Tyler Shough looked good running this Louisville offense, but Jacksonville State's defense has been solid since it moved up. That said, the QB situation is a major issue. Give me Louisville, but I don't trust the half.

California at Auburn (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Cal RB Ott probable against Auburn, Wilcox says

Cal coach Justin Wilcox says running back Jaydn Ott is probable for the Golden Bears' game against Auburn on Saturday.

— Jean Olivier (@jeanolivv) September 4, 2024

This is the best-case scenario for Cal, but what if it can't run the ball? Jaydn Ott's longest run against UC Davis was seven yards. I do like Cal, but not enough to bet this. I'm likely leaving it alone.

South Carolina at Kentucky (-8.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This feels low. LaNorris Sellers is going to be good at some point, but he's not going to look it against this defense on the road in the second game of his career. Give me the Wildcats.

Michigan State at Maryland (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Maryland offense looked outstanding in the opener, but so did the Michigan State defense. I still think Sparty's offense holds them back. Give me the Terps.

Eastern Michigan at Washington (-24.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Ouch! Yuck! No thanks. Give me Washington, but I wouldn't touch this one.

Massachusetts at Toledo (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Can we just trust that Toledo has a good back? Probably. Give me the Rockets.

Charlotte at North Carolina (-22.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Charlotte football is going to have their hands full with Omarion Hampton on Saturday afternoon.

The UNC offense is fairly one-dynamic, but that one dynamic is pretty good. Hampton toted the rock 30 times in their week one victory. His two most impressive plays are below: pic.twitter.com/FL0nyZup2q

— Matt Alquiza (@malquiza8) September 4, 2024

Omarion Hampton should be able to cover the deficiencies in the passing game and cover this by himself. I'll take Carolina.

Temple at Navy (-12.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Navy isn't built to cover spreads like this, but Temple is terrible. Give me Navy, I guess...

UTSA at Texas State (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

There are other rivalries this week that will overshadow this one, but these teams don't like each other. UTSA's inability to run the ball is going to be a problem, especially when Ismail Mahdi is running for a buck fifty on them. Give me Texas State.

Middle Tennessee State at (6) Mississippi (-42.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Ole Miss didn't let up in the opener. I'm hoping it doesn't here, either. Give me the Rebels.

Marshall at Virginia Tech (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I don't like this at all. Give me Marshall, but I'm not touching this.

Central Michigan (-5.5) at Florida International

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I trust Keyone Jenkins and Shomari Lawrence more than anything CMU can throw at the Panthers. Give me FIU at home.

East Carolina at Old Dominion (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

ODU looked good in Columbia last week. I feel pretty good about taking them here.

South Alabama (-2.5) at Ohio

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Really? The Jags got exposed by North Texas and Ohio hung with Syracuse at the Loud House. Ohio straight up at home.

Sam Houston at Central Florida (-21.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Bearkats are going to have their hands full here. I'll take UCF.

South Florida at (4) Alabama (-30.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I don't know ... this feels high. I'll take USF, but I don't feel as good about it as I did before the season.

Buffalo at (9) Missouri (-34.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This Missouri offense is legit and the defense isn't bad, either. M! I! Z! (Z! O! U!)

(19) Kansas (-4.5) at Illinois

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This line is slowly trickling downward. As long as Jalon Daniels is healthy, Kansas is a force to be reckoned with. Give me Kansas.

Virginia at Wake Forest (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Virginia isn't messing around this year. Anthony Colandrea is starting from the beginning of the season and Malachi Fields is beastly. Give me the Wahoos. Virginia is going to be fun to watch this year.

? Malachi Fields just doing Malachi Fields things.#SCTop10 pic.twitter.com/nm1qxZT9Fw

— Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) September 1, 2024

Louisiana (-13.5) at Kennesaw State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line is all over the place. Fifth Third Stadium is going to be rocking come Saturday night for KSU's first FBS game. That has to count for something. I don't think the Owls win, but I'll say they stay within 10 or so.

San Jose State at Air Force (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

We learned absolutely nothing about either team in the opener. San Jose State (predictably) had issues moving the ball. I'll take Air Force. It'll grind down the Spartans.

Georgia Southern at Nevada (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I'm looking forward to this one! This is going to be a surprisingly good game. It opened with the Eagles favored, but considering Nevada took out Fun Belt power Troy in Alabama last week, I feel good about the Pack here.

Tulsa at Arkansas State (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Red Wolves almost lost to Central Arkansas last week. Corey Rucker is impressive, but the rest of the team is not. Give me Tulsa because of that half.

UAB (-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I believe it. UAB is a significantly better team right now. I'll take the Blazers.

Western Michigan at (2) Ohio State (-37.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

*YAWN!* Is it October yet? Come on Ohio State. This is embarrassing. Give me the Buckeyes, but I have no interest in this game, betting or otherwise.

(14) Tennessee (-9.5) at (24) North Carolina State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This line has nearly doubled already and I would suggest pouncing before it goes over 10. This is way out of whack. Vols roll!

Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

If Nebraska loses to Colorado on Saturday, I will eat a pound of buffalo wings and drink copious amounts of alcohol.

Book it!

— Johnny GBR (@gbrhomer) September 4, 2024

This is a bet that everyone can get behind, as opposed to the Florida State fan who made a (now viral) proclamation about what he would do if Boston College won. Needless to say, he deleted all of his social media accounts. Don't make bets you have no intention of making good on. It's a bad look.

And hey ... this guy got a response from Buffalo Wild Wings. It must be a good bet!

This is what I like to call the Dylan Raiola effect. Colorado smoked this secondary last year in Boulder despite abysmal offensive line play. The OL isn't a lot better, but should Raiola cause that much of a swing? I expect a close game, meaning one score. This is about a half-point too high. Give me the Buffs.

Houston at (15) Oklahoma (-27.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Houston is in trouble. BOOMER!

Appalachian State at (25) Clemson (-16.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Not a chance! App State has at least a puncher's chance of winning this outright. Give me the Mountaineers. This is WAY too many.

Boise State at (7) Oregon (-21.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Patience is the key to this line. It's all over the place. I've seen it down to 18 and as high as 22, so take what's best for you. I tend to think this is too many since Duck U struggled with Idaho.

However, Boise State's defense got gashed by Georgia Southern last week. I'm not sure what to do with this one, either. My gut says too high, but I'm uncomfortable with much of a wager on it. Give me Boise, but I don't trust that defense at all.

Texas Tech at Washington State (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Tech defense got punished in the second half by Abilene Christian. I like Wazzu at home, probably more than I should.

Liberty (-22.5) at New Mexico State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I hate lines like this. Give me Liberty, but I'm not touching it.

Mississippi State at Arizona State (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Sure, I'm game. I was impressed with Arizona State in the opener. Give me Sparky.

Oregon State (-5.5) at San Diego State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Marquez Cooper is the next in a very long line of good Aztec running backs. I like SDSU outright.

Utah State at (13) USC (-28.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I know the defense is much better than last year, but this feels a bit too much. Give me Utah State, but I'm not touching this.

I ended up with four max bets out of the 49 picks this weekend. I lived in the middle with 20 two-pointers and 16 three-pointers. Six single-point bets are a little low for this point of the season, so we'll see how that goes. I have three four-point bets again.

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