RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Start in All Leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: Midrange TE1
ANALYSIS: Cleveland's defense is stout, and they were particularly effective in guarding opposing tight ends a year ago. Per FTN Fantasy, Cleveland ranked second in defensive DVOA against tight ends and only allowed 31.7 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
This might make Ferguson look like an easy fade, but when we take a closer look, there’s reason for optimism.
The Browns ran the 3rd-highest rate of Cover 2 last year.
Fantasy points per route run against Cover 2, among Cowboys (their Week 1 opponent):
Jake Ferguson: 0.41 FP/RR
CeeDee Lamb: 0.24 FP/RR
Brandin Cooks: 0.22 FP/RRFerg also led with a 36.7% first-read target share.
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) September 2, 2024
The Browns were also quite formidable against the run in 2023. Dallas has major questions at running back and also experienced some turnover on the offensive line. They could find it difficult to move the ball on the ground against this defense. That could mean they become one-dimensional and are forced to rely on Dak Prescott and the passing game.
Dallas lacks a true WR2 to alpha Ceedee Lamb. We can expect the Browns to try and do their best to take Lamb out of the game with double teams and bracket coverage. That leaves Ferguson as the next man up.
It initially looked like this was a brutal matchup for Ferguson, but after analyzing the data, there’s a path for a solid game. If you drafted Ferguson, you likely have him as your TE1. Fire him up as he could find success even against Cleveland’s tough defense.
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