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In the middle of the first round, you'll have your choice of elite wide receivers if you decide to go that route. With the wide receiver position as a whole being pushed up in drafts and the NFL becoming more and more pass-catcher-centric with offenses passing the ball more than ever, it's no secret that receivers are huge targets for astute fantasy drafters looking to cash in.
Justin Jefferson is arguably the best real-life wide receiver in the NFL. Still, drafters may be scared off because of the quarterback situation that potentially has gotten even muddier with J.J. McCarthy now out for the season. That has made his ADP very volatile in the first round. On the other side is A.J. Brown, whose ADP has remained steady in the 1.07-1.11 range throughout the fantasy draft season as one of the most consistent and lucrative fantasy assets.
When faced with a decision in the center of the first round, which receiver should you draft in 2024? Let's take a look.
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Justin Jefferson 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
With J.J. McCarthy out for the season, Sam Darnold assumes the reins at quarterback and 2022's overall WR1 Justin Jefferson can be drafted from WR4 to sometimes WR8 because of that. People are scared of the quarterback situation and frankly, that's a valid concern. I tend to push back on that, as a supposed NFL quarterback named Nick Mullens supported Jefferson's massive fantasy playoff stretch where he was overall WR4 and averaged 22.1 PPR fantasy points per game from Weeks 15 to 18.
Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the free world.
In games without Kirk Cousins, JJ has a pace of:
🔸 164 targets, 108 rec., 1590 yds., 6 TD
That would have been WR4 last season in PPR. The FUD on Jefferson is frankly irresponsible. https://t.co/VJn5LmjkGj pic.twitter.com/gVRYmEtRv1
— Kevin Tompkins (@ktompkinsii) August 15, 2024
Surely, Darnold -- he of first-round draft capital who hasn't had anywhere near the offensive weaponry, offensive scheme, and stable head coach Kevin O'Connell -- can at the very worst be adjacent to Mullens in terms of supporting offensive talent. If anything, McCarthy being out of the season should make things a bit more bullish for Jefferson because we won't have to go through a rookie dip if McCarthy had been inserted as the starting quarterback.
Jefferson's efficiency could take a slight dip, but he's never had a season with less than 2.59 yards per route run and has three straight seasons of 26%+ targets per route run. Considering the Vikings were middle of the pack in EPA per play and EPA per pass last season with notable quarterbacks like half of a season of Kirk Cousins, Jaren Hall, Joshua Dobbs, and Darnold, the Vikings should be level with those team efficiency metrics or better.
A.J. Brown 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
As the top receiver in a Jalen Hurts-led offense, Brown could still be a huge value if the Eagles find the efficiency they had in 2022 with new offensive coordinator Kellan Moore. Like Jefferson, Brown has been an efficiency darling over the last couple of seasons with Philadelphia, sporting a combined 25% targets per route run and 2.56 yards per route run in two seasons.
While Brown was WR5 in fantasy points per game last season, he was WR37 from Week 11 until the end of the season with 10.8 fantasy points per game. Gone is Brian Johnson, last season's offensive coordinator, and in steps former Cowboys and Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore who should provide much more stability than the Eagles showed last season when they cratered as a whole.
NFL leaders in yards per route run when only including routes where the initial cut came six or fewer yards from the line of scrimmage:
(2022-23 - min 250 short routes)BOTH Eagles wide receivers rank top-eight!
No player has been more efficient on short routes than AJB 👀 pic.twitter.com/WNCOIaV4pg
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 23, 2024
Brown has overall WR1 upside in his range of outcomes, even with DeVonta Smith playing alongside him in this offense, as evidenced by a nuclear six-game stretch where Brown put up no less than six receptions and 125 receiving yards with five top-12 weeks. In the middle to the end of the first round, you can do much worse than selecting Brown as your WR1.
Who Should I Draft?
If I have the choice between Jefferson and Brown as my wide receiver to start a draft with, it's always Jefferson. We haven't seen a truly "QB-proof" wide receiver of this magnitude since DeAndre Hopkins.
What Jefferson did with a subpar cast of quarterbacks -- albeit in a smaller sample size -- leads me to believe that betting on the massive talent despite quarterback questions is the way to play the first-round receivers once CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are off the board.
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