RADIO
Diving into preseason predictions is like playing fantasy stockbroker, scouting the next big breakout before it happens. Just like navigating Wall Street, the fantasy gridiron is all about high returns, and Chiefs WR Rashee Rice is a prime example. He plummeted down the ADP charts after a traffic incident, but now that he won't face any potential discipline from the league until 2025, his ADP has taken off like a rocket ship.
The trick to nailing your predictions isn’t just riding the hype train on your personal favorite picks, it’s about keeping emotions on the bench and letting the data and film analysis lead the play calls. Sure, declaring Justin Jefferson as the WR1 or slating Christian McCaffrey as the top draft pick isn’t going to make headlines anymore. So, let's dig deeper, sift through the data, and make some less obvious calls that aren't on every analyst’s radar yet.
Here come my five bold takes for the 2024 fantasy football season, and trust me, they're aimed at giving you the inside track on draft day.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
1. Dave Canales Fixes Bryce Young and Makes the Panthers' Offense a Capable Unit for Fantasy
Rookie years don't come much tougher than what Bryce Young faced in 2023. The Panthers paid a king's ransom to draft him first overall, only to see the coach get the boot early, the offensive line fall apart, and veteran Adam Thielen become Young's sole reliable target. Young's year ended with just 2,877 yards and 11 TDs against 10 interceptions, dragging Carolina to a dismal 2-15 record, which ironically handed the Bears the next No. 1 pick. Ouch.
But hey, Panthers fans, it’s time to shake off that nightmare and charge into 2024. The team's brass is betting big on Bryce, flipping the page aggressively this offseason. They've swapped out veteran pieces like Donte Jackson and Brian Burns for fresh firepower, bringing in Diontae Johnson and drafting Xavier Legette, alongside snagging guard Robert Hunt to bolster the interior protection. There's no going back now.
On the coaching front, Carolina roped in Dave Canales as the head coach, fresh off a stint revolutionizing Baker Mayfield with the Bucs. Canales, who polished his QB-whispering skills with Geno Smith back in Seattle, is implementing a quick-draw offense, aiming to get Young firing off passes within 2.7 seconds. Stats from PFF show this could be a game-changer as Young's performance rockets with quicker release times. Though there’s skepticism, the front office’s maneuvers have poised Young for a turnaround, possibly leading to some high-scoring dramas, especially with the defense losing a star like Burns.
expect #Panthers HC Dave Canales’ offense to be aggressive on 4th downs
(the referenced 4th down that Carolina went for in the preseason finale was a 4th & 3 on the opponent’s 46-yard line, on the very first drive of the game) pic.twitter.com/Zu4hOHnWCQ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 29, 2024
Diontae Johnson is flying under the radar as a player who could easily outscore his ADP. Johnson is elite at getting open and will be a big asset to his quarterback if Canales' plan is to get the ball out quickly. While we shouldn't expect this offense to be in the top ten, it should be a lot better. Once rookie RB Jonathan Brooks starts ramping up his workload after he comes off the PUP list, watch out.
2. Tank Dell Outscores Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs
All summer, the fantasy football world's been like detectives on the prowl, hunting down the next wide receiver who’s going to explode onto the scene. This quest has turned into the holy grail of fantasy strategy, especially after Stefon Diggs snagged championships for managers in 2020, Cooper Kupp ruled the roost with his triple crown in 2021, Amon-Ra St. Brown proved all the skeptics wrong in 2022, and Puka Nacua lit up the scoreboards in 2023.
This throw from CJ Stroud to Tank Dell didn’t count but this throw is one of the hardest ones in the NFL.
Stroud made it look effortless. pic.twitter.com/keZm7ZuTZk
— DJ Bien-Aime (@Djbienaime) August 19, 2024
Dell, currently sitting as the WR29 with an overall ADP of 63.0 in half-PPR leagues (per FantasyPros), is shaping up to be a sneaky pick in the sixth round for those fantasy managers who went big on an elite running back early. Despite some fantasy heads advising a fade due to a crowded Texans' target share alongside Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon, bet on Dell.
As a rookie, Dell was on a tear before a broken leg sidelined him for the Texans' final six regular games. Still, he managed to haul in 47 catches for 709 yards and 7 touchdowns, averaging 15.1 yards per catch! What’s wild about Dell is that, despite standing just 5-foot-8 and tipping the scales at 165 pounds, he mostly lined up outside, 70.1% of his snaps, per PFF, against just 28.7% in the slot.
That’s a testament to his effectiveness outside, bucking the trend of shifting smaller receivers inside.
C.J. Stroud, the Texans’ QB, was so high on Dell that he pushed the front office to draft him, and it’s pretty clear why. Despite concerns about his size, Dell's rookie season proved that modern NFL offenses with their spread looks, emphasis on less physical defensive play due to stricter penalties, and clever use of pre-snap motion, are perfectly suited to let smaller, shiftier receivers thrive on the outside.
Remember DeVonta Smith? When he came into the league, there were similar whispers about his frame, yet he smashed those doubts. It’s crucial to note that wide receivers often make their most significant leaps in performance in their second year.
So, while some might still cling to the traditional 'Year Three Breakout' model, savvy fantasy managers will see the value in betting on a Year Two surge, especially for someone as dynamic as Dell. If you're drafting soon, don't sleep on this potential gem lurking in the middle rounds!
3. Ladd McConkey Leads All Rookies in Receptions
McConkey is shaping up to be a fantasy gem this year, and when Matt Waldman from FootballGuys lays down his take, you know it's time to tune in. To paraphrase Waldman's analysis below, the Chargers' playbook is all about slicing through the middle, perfect for a receiver who's got the chops to navigate complex zone and man coverages from the slot, which is McConkey to a tee.
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh's system loves guys who can turn quick screens, RPOs, and crossing routes into big gains, and that's right in Ladd's wheelhouse.
Ladd has plenty of speed to play on the outside, but his real magic happens in the slot. He's the type of receiver who can patiently work close to his blockers in traffic, making him a prime target for screen and RPO plays. Plus, his slick double moves and refined footwork give him an edge against off-man coverage. While he's still polishing his skills against press coverage, the potential is there for him to excel with some more handiwork.
Ladd McConkey with his first NFL catch and he gets the first down 🥹 pic.twitter.com/eRYHy8f1vE
— JByrd | 🖤❤️ | 🏆🏆 | (@CuteJByrd) August 17, 2024
McConkey was injured for a good chunk of his final collegiate season at Georgia in 2023, but he averaged an impressive 3.62 yards per route run! He's a versatile receiver who based on film evaluation and analytics just feels like an immediate plug-and-play for the Chargers, even as a rookie.
Most in the fantasy space are buying the notion that the Chargers under Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman plan to be more run-heavy this year, but the likes of J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Kimani Vidal aren't exactly keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night.
The Chargers can say they want to be run-heavy all they want, but will the game scripts allow for that to happen? Herbert is easily the best passing quarterback that Harbaugh has ever had and in a loaded AFC Conference, LA might just find themselves in plenty of shootouts this season.
With his knack for creating plays and Herbert slinging the ball, if McConkey keeps clear of injuries, he's set to light up the scoreboard. Keep your eyes peeled because this Charger might just electrify your fantasy lineup!
4. Zamir White is This Year's Alexander Mattison
Not here to personally root against anyone, but there's a lot more bark to White than his bite. After playing well in the four games that former starting RB Josh Jacobs missed at the end of 2023, many are hyping up White for 2024. The problem? His analytical profile combined with the sportsbooks' implied win totals for the Raiders gives White a very narrow runway in 2024.
White had 59 rushes for 285 yards and one TD to go along with eight receptions for 51 yards in the four games he started in 2023. Head coach Antonio Pierce has come out and said he wants the Raiders to be a tough, physical type of football team. However, that may not necessarily be a good thing for White. If the Raiders have a slow pace of play and run the ball a lot, it severely limits how many touches White will get.
White had a solid college career at Georgia mostly sharing the backfield with James Cook. However, White had just 17 total receptions in the three seasons he played in Athens and there are significant questions about his receiving profile. Ironically enough, the team also features Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube, who is an exceptional pass catcher out of the backfield and drew some comps to Danny Woodhead.
White is a feel-good story and an easy guy to root for. However, there have been muddied reports from the Raiders about their overall backfield usage and there's a good chance this backfield becomes more of a committee than many are expecting. While Mattison was disappointing in 2023 as the lead guy, he is still a capable back who can be effective with limited touches.
In order for White to be great for fantasy, the Raiders need to win 10-plus games in 2024 and for White to score 12+ touchdowns. Do we really see that happening with Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell under center? Las Vegas has a couple of nice pieces to build around, but they are still lacking at the game's most important position. Don't get sucked in.
5. Patrick Mahomes Finishes as the Overall QB1
It's pretty wild to think that the Chiefs are fresh off of two straight Super Bowl titles while mostly masquerading as a defensive team. Mahomes' wide receiving corps was easily the worst of his career last season. While Rashee Rice played well as a rookie and Travis Kelce remains reliable, players such as Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore all played poorly.
As a result, the Chiefs turned into one of the league's best defenses led by none other than Chris Jones. But this offseason, the team signed veteran wideout Marquise Brown and traded up with the Bills to select Xavier Worthy, who recorded the fastest-ever forty-yard dash time in NFL Combine history. The last time the Bills allowed the Chiefs to trade up into their spot on draft night, it was for Mahomes in 2017. Oye.
Mahomes had one of the worst touchdown totals of his career last season with 27 while throwing a career-high 14 interceptions. Add in the upgrades to the receiving corps alongside a backfield led by Isiah Pacheco, and it's hard not to feel bullish about this offense in 2024.
Mahomes' days of using his legs in the red zone to rush for touchdowns have been on the decline as the Chiefs look to keep him healthy, but he rushed for a career-high 389 yards last season. It's pretty clear that quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have been elite assets for fantasy due to their rushing upside, but let's not bet against one of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen.
Mahomes isn't a running quarterback, but he isn't a pure statue either. With all the weapons at his disposal, would any of us be surprised if he completely crushes it for fantasy? This is a guy who has thrown for over 5,000 yards and 50-plus touchdowns in a season.
Thanks for reading! Don't forget to follow me on X and best of luck in your drafts this season!
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