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NFL Football is back and we are ready to get it locked and loaded for Week 1! We all have been waiting patiently for this week to come so let us get into all of the stats, data, and slates that we can get our hands on.
I'll be picking up where we left off last year and continuing the "first look" article. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 8. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Week 1 can get crazy as we think we know what to expect but usually the unexpected does happen. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 1 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points (which usually means fantasy points, too) this week. With it being Week 1, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams who are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
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There’s still work left to be done but Buffalo is so proud of you, @JoeAndreessen. 🥹 #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/NjKM1Yfd52
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) August 30, 2024
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 1: Main Slate Only
- Bills - 26.75
- Dolphins - 26.5
- Texans - 25.75
- Bengals - 25
- Bears - 24.75
2023 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Cowboys - 30.1
- 49ers - 28.6
- Dolphins - 27.9
- Ravens - 27.7
- Lions - 27.4
2023 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Ravens - 16.2
- Chiefs - 17.0
- Bills - 18.7
- 49ers - 18.8
- Buccaneers - 19.2
The Buffalo Bills lead the way for the Week 1 main slate with an implied total of 26.75. While they do have the highest total on the slate, the stacking of the Bills will come in many different ways due to the newly formed receiving core. There will be the question mark of who to pair with Josh Allen. Will you go with Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, or rookie Keon Coleman? James Cook and Dalton Kincaid will be the higher-owned Bills players that many will run to.
Coming in at a close second is the Miami Dolphins with their implied total of 26.5. Tyreek Hill will run the salary tab up, pairing him with Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, or even with Jaylen Waddle. Miami was the third-highest-scoring offense in 2023, scoring 27.9 points per game. We should expect that again and against this Jacksonville Jaguars defense that will have their hands full all day Sunday.
Lastly, the Cincinnati Bengals could be a sneaky stack. Ja'Marr Chase has yet to practice and is still waiting on a new contract. Tee Higgins will be a favorable option for the Bengals but don't overlook Jermaine Burton and his value price tag. Joe Burrows and Burton should give you some ownership swing and being the fourth-highest implied total (25.0), why not sprinkle the stack in? The New England Patriots defense allowed 21.5 points per game last season and with Burrows back (and healthy), we should be okay.
Week 1 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- Tampa Bay (12) vs. Washington (32)
- Cincinnati (16) vs. Jacksonville (26)
- Las Vegas (23) vs. L.A Chargers (29)
- Seattle (15) vs. Denver (23)
- Indianapolis (20) vs. Houston (20)
The rookie put on a show. @Jamie_S52 pic.twitter.com/lWNxgmszyF
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) August 25, 2024
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves in a solid Week 1 matchup facing the Washington Commanders. The Commanders will most likely struggle once again this season while trying to rebuild around their new rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. Cincinnati has a healthy Joe Burrows but they may be without Ja'Marr Chase (if he holds out due to no new contract).
Seattle will also be coming in with the same offense but a new coaching staff which many are excited for. They get the Denver Broncos who face similar issues as last season which may present a golden opportunity for Geno Smith and the offense. The Las Vegas Raiders do have a solid matchup in the passing game on their hands but will Minshew Mania rise and succeed in the black-and-white jersey?
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Buffalo (5) vs. Arizona (32)
- Denver (19) vs. Seattle (31)
- New Orleans (21) vs. Carolina (23)
- Minnesota (29) vs. New York Giants (29)
- Seattle (27) vs. Denver (30)
There are a few "surprising" teams on here and that's due to the changes made to the running back group or coach changes. For one, Seattle was ranked 27th last year in rushing yards per game. Their offense though may look different due to a coaching change and also be a lot better. On top of that, Denver also ranks well versus Seattle's defense and they have a couple of different running backs they can use to attack defenses with.
Minnesota also ranked low last year, coming in at 29th. They have since added Aaron Jones to their backfield and get a New York Giants defense that may be on the field more than they like. This will give Jones some much-needed opportunities to keep on eating. Buffalo has the running back position locked in with James Cook and he'll see an Arizona defense that struggled last year to stop the run, making him a popular choice.
2023 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Washington (Mayfield), Jacksonville (Tagovailoa), Arizona (Allen), L.A. Chargers (Minshew), Atlanta (Wilson)
RB - Arizona (Cooks), Denver (Walker III), Seattle (Williams), Indianapolis (Mixon), Washington (White)
WR - Washington (Evans/Godwin), Minnesota (Nabers), N.Y. Giants (Jefferson), L.A. Chargers (Adams), Tennessee (Moore/Odunze/Allen)
TE - Denver (Fant), Cincinnati (Henry/Hooper), Tampa Bay (Ertz/Sinnott), Houston (Granson), Miami (Engram)
DEF - Carolina (NO), NE (CIN), N.Y. Giants (MIN), WAS (TB), MIN (NYG)
These are often referred to as the "flow chart" plays each week. While DvP (like any statistic without context) can be deceiving at times, it's been a staple for DFS players for a long time. There's no promise that these defenses continue to be this vulnerable to these positions. Last year's data is the only concrete data we have to use with no more than training camp reports and a handful of snaps (if that) for most star players.
Tampa Bay could come in low-owned for Week 1 and have solid matchups across the board for their offense. The Las Vegas Raiders stack is going to be an interesting one with Minshew Mania kicking off and if Davante Adams can return to his true form of dominating every defense.
Week 1 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash game build. Remember that projections are going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, too, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a 50k salary cap, while FanDuel uses 60k). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD, DK)
- Malik Nabers (6.3k vs. 5.9k) - Daniel Jones doesn't have any weapons besides the young rookie.
- Khalil Shakir (5.4k vs. 5.1k) - The receiving options in Buffalo will be one to watch as Week 1 could be a telling sign.
- Aaron Jones (6.8k vs. 6.5k) - Great matchup for Aaron Jones versus what was a bad run defense last year.
- Brian Robinson Jr. (5.9k vs. 5.2k) - Many will run toward Austin Ekeler but Robinson Jr. is the true RB1 in Washington.
- Tee Higgins (6.8k vs. 6.1k) - If no Ja'Marr Chase, then - Yes, please!
DraftKings Values (DK, FD)
- Kyle Pitts (4.6k vs. 6.3k) -Pitts will most likely bring some ownership as he now has a legit quarterback under center.
- Rome Odunze (4k vs. 5.8k) - A Chicago Bears stack could be easily affordable.
- Treylon Burks (3.4k vs. 4.5k) - No DeAndre Hopkins to start the season. Let us fall for the Burks trap.
- Jonnu Smith (3.5k vs. 4.6k) - The Miami Dolphins have a new tight end who is very familiar with the red zone and he's affordable.
- Jermaine Burton (3.7k vs. 4.8k) - Same as Higgins for FanDuel. If no Chase, I'll go after Burton.
Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Williams - Odunze (9.9k, 12.9k)
- Cousins - Pitts (10.7k, 13.8k)
- Mayfield - Godwin (11.4k, 12.8k)
- Burrows - Higgins (12.6k, 15.2k)
- Smith - Metcalf (11.7k, 13.9k)
- Lawrence - Engram (11.7k, 13.6k)
- Tagovailoa - Smith (10.5k, 12.3k)
If Romeo Doubs can't go this week, then Jayden Reed should slide into the WR2 slot for only 3k, making an even cheaper Green Bay stack. I don't love the matchup for Mac Jones and the Patriots' passing game, but a negative game script could be there for them if they are trailing the Eagles in that one. Carr and Olave almost didn't make the cut, but their matchup is so noteworthy that I wanted to include them. If you wanted to go with someone like Juwan Johnson as a stacking partner for Carr, I kind of like that and it's quite a bit cheaper.
Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)
- Caleb Williams (5.9k, 7.1k)
- Jayden Daniels (5.7k, 7k)
- Bo Nix (5k, 6.6k)
- Trey Benson (5.1k, 5k) - RB2
- Bucky Irving (4.8k, 5k) - RB2
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (7.2k, 6.6k)
- Malik Nabers (5.9k, 6.3k)
- Keon Coleman (5k, 6k)
- Ladd McConkey (4.7k, 5.3k)
- Xavier Legette (4.6k, 4.9k)
- Rome Odunze (4k, 5.8k)
- Luke McCaffrey (3.3k, 4.2k)
- Brock Bowers (4.5k, 5.4k)
- Ben Sinnott (2.7k, 4.4k)
Alright, that's it for Week 1 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful -- so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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