RADIO
The main course is finally here! We have 95 games over Labor Day weekend, but only 37 feature FBS vs. FBS matchups. Some FCS schools have already made their marks by collecting FBS scalps. Will there be more?
That doesn't concern us. I'm only picking FBS vs. FBS games because even if casinos have a line on the FBS vs. FCS matchups, the spreads are wild enough to drive us away. Well ... most of us. I'll pick my 31 games over the rest of the weekend and be happy.
We have a few marquee matchups on tap today, but the money will be made elsewhere. I need to make up for what I lost by a stupid half-point on North Carolina last night. Ironically, I made the pick right in the article because the spread was -1.5 at the time of publishing.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 1 (8/31/24 - 9/2/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(14) Clemson vs. (1) Georgia (-12.5) at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
No part of me thinks Clemson will hang around in this game. Carson Beck was great when called upon to be last year and Florida transfer Trevor Etienne gives Georgia a horse in the backfield. Georgia leaves no doubt who the top team in the country is after this one.
Week 1 CFB Lock:
Fellas, we have made it. I’m back for some more after a 9-4 year last year for +235 dollars. I hope to hit double digit winners for the followers.
GEORGIA -12.5 against Clemson. Clemsons defense isn’t ready for this juggernaut #1 team.
Let’s have a year pic.twitter.com/AN631RJoDU
— Shill (@sean_hill23) August 30, 2024
There's still the little elephant in the room that is Etienne's arrest for DUI in March. The DUI charge was dismissed and he pled guilty to lesser charges. What that means is he no longer faces a mandatory suspension from Georgia since the DUI charge never went through.
Kirby Smart isn't saying anything, but the SEC is supposed to release the active player list 90 minutes before kickoff. However, the little clause in that stipulation is that it is only for games against other SEC opponents. The Big Ten (18) has to disclose for every game. The SEC can screw with us (and of course they will!) for non-conference games.
(8) Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
West Virginia is getting no respect, so I'm betting the hell out of this! If Penn State wins (and I do consider that a big if), it won't be by multiple scores.
Virginia Tech (-13.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I take it Vegas didn't watch Kyron Drones much last year. That's okay. I did ... and I know this Vandy defense has no chance of stopping him. On top of that, the receiver room is finally all healthy at the same time. What the hell! I'm upping this to a maximum bet, too!
Connecticut at Maryland (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I expect UConn to be better than last year, but how much better? Probably not enough. Even though Maryland lost Taulia Tagovailoa, that offense is still loaded. Roman Hemby is a star in the making at running back and Billy Edwards Jr. will have plenty of reliable targets in Kaden Prather, Tai Felton, and Octavian Smith Jr.
Kent State at Pittsburgh (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know Kent is bad, but that's a lot of points for a team that struggled on offense last year. Pitt should be able to cover this by running alone, but I'm not willing to lay a lot on this until I see the offense prove it can consistently move the ball. That was a big problem in 2023.
Akron at (2) Ohio State (-48.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ohio State is notorious for not covering lines like this. I'll say the Zips score a late TD to lose by 45.
Colorado State at (4) Texas (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't think Colorado State is a bad team, I just think Texas is that good. Give me Bevo (... on a plate ... with a baked potato and green beans).
(19) Miami (FL) (-2.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It’s been 4006 days since the last time Miami has beaten Florida. pic.twitter.com/gkgQjU1HwR
— Blah Blah Blah (@Gator2526) August 26, 2024
I understand. What we have seen from portal-heavy teams so far is that they lack cohesion in the early going. That's what happened with Florida State. Cam Ward is coming into a system that he is familiar with and Xavier Restrepo can catch anything in the same zip code. I still think Miami wins this by 7-10 points. I'm comfortable with a decent wager on this.
Florida International at Indiana (21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I love what the Hoosiers did in the portal, but the only skill player who is a holdover is WR Donaven McCulley, who wasn't a big part of the offense anyway. I think it takes a bit for the Hoosiers to get going so they won't cover. That half seals it.
UTEP at Nebraska (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's not even Week 1 and the Nebraska fans are already insufferable. Dylan Raiola parted the Red Sea, walked across the Salt Creek without sinking, and will single-handedly bring the program back to where it was when his dad played there. It's the prophecy that he will make this team great again all by himself.
Matt Rhule made it simple for Dylan Raiola…
“You’re our starting quarterback.”#GBR | #Huskers pic.twitter.com/p0NFtDxdgr
— Hail Varsity (@HailVarsity) August 27, 2024
It won't get any better after this game, either. What little talent UTEP had last year is gone. Nebraska should cover this with the offensive talent that it has.
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
What? UMass is favored? I'm pretty sure that's one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. The others are massive conferences, the death of a major conference, and an expanded playoff. Yes ... college football is screwed.
Both teams are full of transfers, but UMass still has Taisun Phommachanh as its quarterback. That might be enough. Give me UMass, but I'm not touching this one.
Ohio at Syracuse (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line keeps rising, which makes me gradually more uncomfortable with it. Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord isn't as bad as Buckeyes fans said he is. Ohio lost both Kurtis Rourke and Sieh Bangura to the portal. I'll say the Orange cover this.
Kennesaw State at UTSA (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FBS gained another team with an owl as a mascot. Other than that, I don't know much about them. However, I do know a lot about UTSA. Give me the Roadrunners.
Miami (OH) at Northwestern (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I picked the Redhawks outright in Pick'em and I'm sticking to it.
Boise State (-12.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Former USC and 5 star QB transfer Malachi Nelson has been surpassed in the Boise State quarterback competition by redshirt sophomore Maddux Madsen ? pic.twitter.com/KrmMOA5eQ3
— Trojan Football ✌️fan (@TrojanFBx) August 18, 2024
It's a bold move by the Broncos to snatch the most heralded recruit in school history in the portal and then start sophomore Maddux Madsen over him anyway. Will Malachi Nelson stick around? Will he steal the starting job? The only sure thing on this team is Ashton Jeanty.
This almost feels like too many points. JC French was solid in limited action last year and Jalen White ran for 889 yards. I feel like the Eagles might go a little more back to their roots and run the ball more. Having Davis Brin last year altered their approach a bit. I know Boise is better, but I just have this feeling. Give me the Eagles and the points.
Old Dominion at South Carolina (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Spencer Rattler is gone and the Cocks have three brand-new receivers and two new running backs. LaNorris Sellers might be the answer at quarterback. If he's not, Auburn transfer Robby Ashford could (and probably should) take the job.
The Gamecocks have a good group of transfers to try out against a poor Old Dominion team. Give me South Carolina. I just hope they don't screw around too much and blow the cover.
North Texas at South Alabama (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place, but probably shouldn't be. South Alabama lost the big names, but all but one of the starters on offense was on this team last year. North Texas is breaking in a new quarterback in Chandler Morris (who had to move a whole 30 miles) and they have two true freshmen backing him up. USA is the more polished team and it should show.
Western Kentucky at (5) Alabama (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Western Kentucky is a solid offensive team, but that defense is a disaster and has been for years. Roll Tide!
UNLV at Houston (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It's a major win for Houston just by not having Dana Holgorsen on the sidelines anymore. UNLV has some talent (it almost beat Kansas with Jalon Daniels last year), but winning a game in Houston with most of the offense back for the Cougars isn't likely. Give me Houston.
Sam Houston at Rice (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rice lost Luke McCaffrey and doesn't have a suitable replacement. The Bearkats added former Memphis and Northern Illinois RB Jay Ducker to former Central Michigan QB Jase Bauer. They're bringing MACtion to Texas. Rice won't know what hit them! Give me the Bearkats outright!
Nevada at Troy (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line cratered (and rightfully so) after Nevada almost (and should have) beat SMU in Reno last week. Make no mistake about it ... these Nevada backs are legit and they have a good shot at winning this outright. I'm taking the Pack!
(7) Notre Dame at (20) Texas A&M (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Vegas knows what I do. That's why the Aggies are favored. Firing Jimbo Fisher is addition by subtraction and Notre Dame is nowhere near what it was on offense last year. I'm taking the Aggies.
Fresno State at (9) Michigan (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Let's pretend for a minute that Michigan at No. 9 isn't based on name alone. Fresno State returns Mikey Keene, Malik Sherrod, Jalen Moss, and Mac Dalena from last year's high-powered offense that beat two Power Five teams last year. Fresno's not winning this game, but I don't think it will get out of hand, either. Give me Fresno and the points.
UCLA (-14.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UCLA has a lot of talent on offense, but can it put it all together? Can Ethan Garbers finally be that guy? I don't like the half, so I'm lowering the bet. UCLA is the better team on paper. I just don't trust it.
Southern Mississippi at Kentucky (-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Frank Gore Jr. is in the NFL, so back to obscurity with you! Give me Kentucky.
Georgia State at Georgia Tech (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is the game that we never knew we needed. These two teams are separated by about five miles, making them the closest foes in FBS. This feels like an overcorrection to the Wreck wrecking Florida State. Then again, maybe not. Tech dominated the trenches in that game and should be over here as well.
That said, this is a revenge game for Zach Gibson. He played in six games for the Bees last year, starting four of them. Give me Georgia State. It may not be a rivalry for Tech, but it will be for the Panthers!
James Madison (-7.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is dropping and it shouldn't be. Give me the Dukes.
New Mexico at (21) Arizona (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, that's a lot of points. Arizona is good ... really good ... but the Lobos almost beat FCS heavyweight Montana State last week. They might hang around here for a half or so, which would blow the cover. Give me the Lobos. I'll say they lose by 24-28 instead.
Wyoming at Arizona State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If the reports out of Tempe about Jaden Rashada are true, the Fun Devils will be a lot more fun and less devilry this year. That's a good thing. As for the game, I don't like the half, but Wyoming's offense was stagnant last year and likely won't be any better. Give me Sparky.
(23) USC vs. (13) LSU (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down two points and that feels fair. Garrett Nussmeier has a little more experience than Miller Moss, but I can guarantee you that the LSU defense is better. Give me LSU.
Boston College at (10) Florida State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Former Florida State RB Treshaun Ward is now at BC and I know that he knows how to run a counter. This is way too many points. Give me BC.
With the 37 FBS vs. FBS games this weekend, I ended up with five max bets. That's abnormal for Week 1 and I came close to a sixth. I'm either going to start in a big hole or I'm going to have a nice stack built up for the rest of the season.
The final tally is six one-point bets, 13 two-point bets, 10 three-point bets, and three four-point bets to go with those fives. Best of luck out there! We've had a pretty good start so far!
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