Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups - After The Draft Free Agent Adds for RB, WR, TE, QB (2024)

Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen! It’s officially NFL season. Sure, no games have been officially played yet, but fantasy football drafts are (almost) all in the rear-view window, and now, we are all patiently waiting for the season to get officially underway.

All the preseason games are done. The rosters are at 53 men. This is merely a waiting game now. While we may research and prepare for hours and hours for our fantasy football drafts, we are just mere mortals. Despite our exhaustive efforts, mistakes are made. We often leave our drafts with a pick or two we wish to do differently.

And so begins our love/hate relationship with the waiver wire. Constant scrolling of players. The agonizing decision of which players to let go of, which ones to add. The struggle is real, but to claim fantasy football glory, it is one we must endure. Remember, failing to admit your mistakes is the only thing worse than making one in the first place. This is where the waiver wire comes in. This is the first waiver wire article for the season. If you want to take advantage of our great premium tools, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

 

Waiver Wire Parameters

A few rules before we get started. Every league is different. Different roster formats. Different roster sizes. That makes this one of the more challenging articles because every league’s waiver wire can look dramatically different.

Even what host site you use matters. ESPN has rankings that are different from those of Yahoo!, which have rankings that are different from those of CBS or NFL, and all of that impacts which players are drafted or not drafted. This year, we’ll be using ESPN’s roster percentages.

The vast majority of players use ESPN. It’s a simple numbers game. We’ll only identify quarterbacks and tight ends with a roster percentage of less than 60%. For running backs and receivers, that number will drop to 50%. We won’t be diving into defenses and kickers too much, but I’ll identify a few streamers to target at those positions each week. Each position will be arranged based on who you should prioritize first at that position.

 

Quarterbacks - Waiver Wire for Week 1

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars – 49.2% Rostered

In 2022, Lawrence finished as the QB12 with an 18.3 PPG average. He did that despite finishing 18th in touchdown rate. He was seventh in pass attempts, eighth in red zone pass attempts, and eighth in expected passing touchdowns, but he finished just 18th in touchdown rate. His expected passing touchdowns were 30.5, but he finished with just 25. Lawrence left some meat on the bone and still finished as a top-12 quarterback.

This past season, you can, and many people have put together a mix tape of all the near-miss touchdowns between Lawrence and his pass-catchers. In the particular one below, there are 15. Some are Lawrence’s fault for waiting a bit too long. Some are clear drops. Some of the receivers failed to get two feet down.

But if just half of them go Lawrence’s way, he has seven more touchdowns and would finish with 28. If just 26% went his way, he’d have four more touchdowns and finish with 25. Take a look for yourself…

Trevor Lawrence near miss touchdowns pic.twitter.com/3tl8vK3VT5

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 9, 2024

We’re going to stay in 2023 for a little bit longer. Lawrence was banged up last season. He played through multiple ailments. On October 15th, he suffered a knee bruise. On December 4th, he sustained a high ankle sprain. On December 17th, he was placed in concussion protocol. On December 24th, he sprained his A/C joint in his throwing shoulder. On top of his injuries, Christian Kirk missed five games, and Zay Jones missed eight.

Looking forward to 2024, Lawrence may have the best collection of pass-catchers he’s ever had. Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, and Gabriel Davis are a fantastic foursome, and their skills complement each other well.

Davis and Thomas will work the intermediate to deep part of the field, while Kirk and Engram work in the short to intermediate part. Lawrence will have plenty of options. They’ve also upgraded their offensive line with the free-agent signing of center Mitch Morse.

Lawrence also has sneaky rushing upside. Since 2022, he ranks eighth among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 630 and fourth in rushing touchdowns with nine. Along with the bonus of rushing value, Lawrence has also thrown the fourth-most passes since 2022. He’s an above-average rushing quarterback with elite passing volume. He’s healthy. He’s received upgrades in his offensive line and his pass-catchers.

The best part is that he's already shown us his capabilities. From Weeks 10-17 in 2022, he averaged 21.0 PPG and was QB5 during this stretch. From Weeks 11-17 this past season, he averaged 21.5 PPG and was QB6.

Due to injuries and bad luck, it hasn't all been put together for one season, but the upside is there. He's shown it to us. It was just in 2022 that he finished as the QB12. Fantasy managers have a significant buying opportunity.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – 54.1% Rostered

Last year, Goff finished as the QB15 with a 17.6 PPG average. He threw for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns. In 2022, Goff finished as the QB14 with a 17.6 PPG average, throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just seven touchdowns.

Last year, Goff finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback six times—37.5%. From 2022-2023, Goff has finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback 13 times. 39.5%. He’s finished between QB13 and QB24 15 times, or roughly 47%.

In six outdoor games, including the playoffs, Goff averaged 13.6 PPG. He averaged 256 yards, 1.0 touchdowns, and 0.66 interceptions per game. In 14 dome games last year, Goff averaged 19.5 PPG. He averaged 277 yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and 0.57 interceptions per game. We see a similar split from the 2022 season.

In 11 dome games back in 2022, Goff averaged 19.6 PPG. He averaged 271 yards, 2.2 touchdowns, and 0.54 interceptions per game. In six outdoor games, Goff averaged just 13.2 PPG. His per-game averages decreased to 244 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, and 0.16 interceptions.

Goff and the Lions play three outdoor games for their 2024 schedule. However, it should be noted that two of them are in Week 16 and Week 17, smack dab in the fantasy playoffs.

19.5 PPG, his two-year dome average, would have ranked QB7 in 2022 and QB6 in 2023. I am generally hesitant to buy away, and home splits just because they’re often small sample sizes and can be a bit fluky. However, this is two years’ worth of data, and the splits are significant. Also, the splits for 2022 and 2023 are incredibly similar. They’re almost identical! It’s hard to ignore that.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – 30.7% Rostered

Stafford will, by far, have the best and deepest group of pass-catchers he's ever had in Los Angeles. The Kupp and Puka Nacua duo is far better than he's ever had here. Despite lacking quality No. 2 targets, Stafford tied as the QB9 in 2021 with a 20.5 PPG average.

However, he was dreadful in the nine full games he played in 2022, finishing as the QB25 with a 12.7 PPG average, tied with Zach Wilson. He rebounded this past year and finished as the QB18 with a 16.9 PPG average. His PPG average increased to 17.5 from Weeks 5-17 when Kupp and Nacua were both on the field. (Kupp missed the first four weeks of the season.)

From Weeks 5-17, Stafford averaged 32 pass attempts, 249 yards, and 1.9 touchdowns per game. This 11-game stretch put him on pace for 4,228 yards and 32 touchdowns with just nine interceptions over 17 games. Although Nacua had the greatest rookie season ever, we can reasonably expect some growth from him as a player, even if the numbers don't explicitly indicate that.

Kupp should be 100% healthy. All of these things could factor into an even better season for Stafford. We saw Stafford get better towards the end of the season. He was the QB7 from Weeks 12-17 with a 20.8 PPG.

The Rams defense struggled a bit last season, finishing 19th in points allowed and 20th in yards gained. That was with Aaron Donald. They have some young guys who should continue to improve, but Donald's loss is significant. Stafford could throw the ball more if the defense takes a minor step backward.

From 2021-2022, he averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game compared to the 32.2 he averaged last year in Weeks 5-17. That may not seem like a lot, but it equals out to 42 passes over 17 games, which is another game's worth of passing volume and then some.

Overall, this looks like one of the better offenses in the NFL. Their offensive line is widely regarded as a top-10 unit, and with the trio of Kyren Williams, Kupp, and Nacua, Stafford should have no problem moving the ball and putting up big numbers. Since Stafford is and has never been a runner, that limits his ceiling, but it's not hard to imagine Stafford outplaying his current positional rank.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns – 39.5% Rostered

Last year, Watson played five games where he played over 20% of the snaps. In those five games, he averaged 18.3 PPG. He had finishes of QB5, QB10, QB8, and QB14. He finished as a top-10 quarterback in 60% of his starts, where he played most of the snaps. Last year, an 18.3 PPG average would have resulted in a QB14 finish.

In 2022, if we eliminate the first game he played after a year and a half absence, Watson averaged 16.8 PPG in his five games last season. This would have been QB20 the previous year. Over his last ten starts with Cleveland, he has averaged 17.6 PPG. This would have been QB15 the prior year, tied with Jared Goff, who is going as the QB12 in drafts right now.

In his final five starts with Cleveland in 2022, he had weekly finishes of QB14, QB8, and QB6. During his last ten starts, with at least a 20% snap share, he’s finished as a top-10 quarterback 50% of the time. Over his previous two seasons with Detroit, Goff has finished as a top-12 quarterback 39% of the time.

Over his last ten starts, Watson has recorded 55 rushing attempts and 296 rushing yards. This works out to 94 rushing attempts and 503 rushing yards. If he scores three rushing scores, that’s an extra 4.0 PPG via rushing stats. If he scores four rushing touchdowns, that’s an additional 4.37 PPG.

Deshaun Watson is the biggest steal at QB right now.

✅️ Fast-paced, spread offense
✅️ Strong receiving core
✅️ Good offensive line
✅️ Rushing upside
✅️ Strong track record

Browns stacks are a MUST in Best Ball. pic.twitter.com/f2SoRmKSlq

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 6, 2024

He struggled as a passer in those ten contests, completing just 60.8% of his passes for 2,081 yards and 14 touchdowns. Those numbers put him on pace for 3,538 yards and 24 touchdowns, and he was also on pace for 12 interceptions. Those passing numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he remains one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league.

For fantasy football, this creates weekly upside and a large margin of error. His passing numbers at face value are disappointing, but remember his rushing PPG? That’s where that becomes so important. Adding 4.0-4.5 PPG via rushing alone gives him a safe floor and an exciting ceiling.

The Browns hired former Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. He should help create a more up-tempo offense in Cleveland and increase the neutral pass rate. We should expect this anyway, based on Nick Chubb's injury. Without him in the lineup, look for Cleveland to lean on the passing game more than we’ve been accustomed to in years past.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – 12.0% Rostered

I believe that Smith will have a resurgent season, more similar to what we saw in 2022 than in 2023. Last season, Seattle's offensive tackles struggled to stay healthy, but as long as they're healthy, Smith should have more time to push the ball downfield. That will be a focal point of their offense this season under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.

Geno Smith's completion rate over expectation on deep throws of 20+ yards (@FantasyPtsData):

– 2023 – 7th-best (+7.3% CPOE)
– 2022 – 4th-best (+12% CPOE)

Ryan Grubb's Washington Huskies threw deep at the 4th-highest rate & led Power 5 CFB teams in deep passing yards last year

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 19, 2024

Grubb ran one of the more pass-heavy offenses in college last year, and they aggressively attacked defenses downfield. Smith has been one of the league's best deep-ball throwers over the last two seasons. Smith has a lot of talent around him, which includes D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant.

 

Running Backs - Waiver Wire for Week 1

Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins – 22.4% Rostered

Wright is a freak athlete and one of the fastest running backs in the NFL. He had a 9.81 Relative Athletic Score after running a 4.38 forty-yard dash at 210 pounds. If there's one coach in the NFL who knows how to utilize speed, it's Mike McDaniel.

Wright happens to have been one of the most efficient running backs in college last year. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry, rushing for 1,013 yards on just 137 carries. He is a big play waiting to happen. He also displayed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield throughout the preseason.

The best part about Jaylen Wright is that he’s the handcuff to not one, but TWO RBs

The Dolphins supported two top-10 running backs on a points per game basis in 2023 in De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert

Talk about a valuable handcuff! 😮‍💨

📹 @finscentralpic.twitter.com/5gNyGU9rGD

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 29, 2024

De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert 16.5 and 17.0 half-PPR PPG, respectively. Miami's offense is capable of supporting two high-level fantasy running backs. Achane is a 190-pound running back who struggled to stay on the field last season.

In nine seasons in the NFL, Mostert is 32 years old and has played more than 12 games in a season just three times. Unlike other handcuff running backs who need an injury to the starter to increase their fantasy value, Wright has two outs. He becomes fantasy-relevant if Mostert or Achane were to miss time, and it seems highly likely one of them does. Wright is a must-add.

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys – 32.6% Rostered

Dallas running backs had 364 carries, 100 targets, and 82 receptions. They produced 1,938 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns. Their backfield consists of Ezekiel Elliott, Deuce Vaughn, and Dalvin Cook.

Zeke averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last year. Despite losing J.K. Dobbins last year due to injury, the Ravens decided they'd rather have Melvin Gordon than Dalvin Cook. Vaughn is 5-foot-6 and 179 pounds, which is smaller than Darren Sproles. I'm not entirely sold on Dowdle being good. He's probably not good, but there is much opportunity in the Dallas backfield.

The Cowboys are likely to be one of the top 10 scoring offenses in the NFL, and they employ an offensive line that ranks in the top third of the league. Regarding fantasy football running backs, while being #good is undoubtedly helpful and preferred, volume is king.

His role and number of touches will, without question, increase this season. Elliott is the only player in the way of Dowdle getting a sizable workload, which isn't saying much.

#Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy on Rico Dowdle:

“He’ll have a lesser role in special teams, just because of workload focus. He’s a complete running back, plays all three downs. I think his pass protection from his rookie year to now has become one of his best assets.” pic.twitter.com/z1LIALjDhZ

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 29, 2024

Elliott is likely to handle the goal-line work for Dallas, which limits Dowdle's upside if he only ends up with 3-5 touchdowns, but he could also become their primary pass-catching option. Betting on Dowdle isn't so much a bet on Dowdle as it is against Elliott and for the Dallas offense and offensive line. I'm okay with making those bets and stashing him at the end of my bench as a potential RB3. It is appealing if you lack depth in this position.

Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos – 33.0% Rostered

Last year, the Broncos targeted their running backs 150 times. They finished with 128 receptions and 843 yards. Samaje Perine, no longer on the team, had 56 targets, 50 receptions, and 455 yards. Starting running back, Javonte Williams was one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL last season. Forty-nine running backs had at least 100 carries last year.

Williams was 36th in yards per carry, 43rd in rush success rate, 33rd in yards after contact per attempt, and 33rd in broken tackle rate. However, it should be noted that Williams was overcoming a significant knee injury in 2022. Sometimes, those injuries take more than one year for players to get over. We should expect William to be better in 2024, but it's worth noting that Sean Payton had no hand in drafting Williams and brought in McLaughlin last season.

Is Jaleel McLaughlin undervalued?🤔

As a rookie⤵️
🟢#9 in Points Per Opportunity (0.95)
🟢#10 in Yards Per Route Run (1.72)
🟢#4 in True Yards Per Carry (5.1)
🟢#6 in Juke Rate (25.2%)
🟢#13 in Breakaway Run Rate (5.3%)

Are you drafting him?📢 pic.twitter.com/ZtzSVsORcT

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) August 25, 2024

Seventy-eight running backs had at least 70 carries last year. McLaughlin was second in yards per carry, 11th in rush success rate, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Compare those numbers to what Williams did last season, and you can see why it's fair to expect McLaughlin's role to increase this season.

Denver is severely lacking dependable pass-catchers. Factoring that into how Sean Payton has historically run his offense, it's easy to see how McLaughlin could be very busy in the passing game.

One of the craziest stats I've found this offseason: Of the top-20 team RB target share seasons since 2011, Sean Payton's teams own 8 of them.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) May 21, 2024

Denver's backfield consists of Williams, McLaughlin, and sixth-round rookie Audric Estime. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect Estime's role to be all that big, especially early on as a rookie. That could mean Williams and McLaughlin will be very busy. Payton has a strong history of producing significant fantasy points from the running back position, making McLaughin even more appealing.

Sean Payton Coached Teams
+ Rank by Team Running Back (PPR) FPG

2023: 6th
2022: N/A
2021: 21st
2020: 1st
2019: 8th
2018: 2nd
2017: 1st
2016: 1st
2015: 2nd
2014: 1st
2013: 2nd
2012: 1st
2011: 1st

top-6 finishes in 10 of 12 seasons

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) May 21, 2024

This backfield has value, evidenced by the tweet above. Payton has a long history of producing highly relevant fantasy backfields, including last season. The problem last year was that the workload was far too dispersed. Historically, almost every Sean Payton-led offense has generated a lot of PPR points. 2023 was no different. That alone makes this a backfield to target, especially since getting shares of these players is not overly expensive.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills – 12.2% Rostered

The Buffalo running backs had 381 carries, 85 targets, and 70 receptions. They also combined for 2,330 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns. Going into the 2024 season, Buffalo's running back depth chart includes 2023 starter James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson.

Last year, Cook handled 281 touches and finished with 1,567 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. That left the other running backs with 170 touches, 763 yards, and six touchdowns. Those numbers indicate that Davis could hold some stand-alone value in 2024.

Buffalo Bills rookie RB Ray Davis avoided five tackles and created 40 rushing yards after contact in his second preseason game, per @TruMediaSports pic.twitter.com/HegUHaD8ch

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 18, 2024

More importantly, however, Davis is one of fantasy football's best handcuff running backs. Cook finished as the RB17 last year with a 12.8 half-PPR PPG average. He was even better under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. After the offensive coordinator change, Cook's average increased to 16.4 half-PPR PPG. If Cook were to miss time, Davis would have top-12 upside.

Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings – 49.2% Rostered

Not only is Chandler one of the better handcuffs available who happens to be behind a 30-year-old running back who has struggled with injuries in recent seasons, but Chandler could very well have stand-alone value. Last season, after the team switched from Alexander to Chandler in Week 10, he finished as the RB29 with a 9.9 half-PPR PPG average over that stretch.

With T.J. Hockenson out for the first four weeks of the season, Sam Darnold could target his running backs at one of the higher rates. Outside of Justin Jefferson, an elite receiver, and Jordan Addison, the number of pass-catchers the Vikings employ is limited.

Most Games on Injury Report Listed As Questionable

Aaron Jones - 7
Marquise Brown - 6
Zay Jones - 6
Trevor Lawrence - 5
Christian Watson - 4
Justin Jefferson - 4
Breece Hall - 4
Raheem Mostert - 4
Michael Wilson - 4
Keaton Mitchell - 4

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 28, 2024

Given Aaron Jones’ age and injury history, Kevin O’Connell may give Chandler 8-12 touches per game to keep Jones healthy throughout the season. That volume would give him RB4 value on top of his high contingency value if Jones were to miss time.

MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers – 31.1% Rostered

Lloyd has missed most of the preseason with a hamstring injury, which puts a big damper on his fantasy football value. That's especially true for a rookie. However, the Packers put A.J. Dillon on season-ending IR. That leaves just Emmanuel Wilson and Lloyd as the only running backs behind Josh Jacobs.

The Packers used a third-round pick on Lloyd in this year's draft, and several draft analysts considered Lloyd the best running back in the class. Before his hamstring injury, Lloyd flashed his explosiveness in camp, and the coaching staff noticed.

#Packers OC Adam Stenavich on whether MarShawn Lloyd will see limited action his rookie season, ala AJ Dillon:

“No, I would like to get him out there as much as possible. He’s got a skill set that’s a little bit different than AJ’s, as far as his speed… It’ll be nice to get him… pic.twitter.com/PSWW3CbCOZ

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 6, 2024

Matt LaFleur has a history of utilizing a running back by committee dating back to his time with the Titans as their offensive coordinator. In 2018, Dion Lewis had 214 to Derrick Henry's 230. LaFleur rarely used Aaron Jones as a workhorse back despite Dillon's inefficiency. He believes in keeping his guys fresh.

Lloyd's injury and rookie status could force his hand a bit, but eventually, we should see Lloyd settle into a role where he's getting 7-10 touches per game. That'll be enough to provide RB4 value for fantasy managers. On top of that, once he gets healthy, he also has extremely high contingency value if Jacobs misses time. If Lloyd can get healthy, and Jacobs were to get hurt, Lloyd would be ranked as a top-12 running back.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars – 4.7% Rostered

Bigsby was terrible last season as a rookie. That may be an understatement. However, based on his play throughout the preseason and reports out of camp, Bigsby looks like a brand-new player. Going into his rookie season last year, Bigsby was a good prospect.

Fantasy managers flocked to him as there were reports he might operate as Jacksonville's goal-line back. Due to his complete ineptitude, which never came to pass, he's left a sour taste for many fantasy managers, which probably explains why his roster percentage is so low.

Every preseason Tank Bigsby opportunity (rush+reception)⬇️

- 25 touches (4 receptions)
- 123 rush+rec yards
- 97 of 105 rushing yards gained after contact
- just six snaps with Trevor Lawrence pic.twitter.com/OROI3m2Oy5

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 26, 2024

However, he looks like a different player. The coaching staff has continued talking highly of Bigsby throughout the offseason. They've talked about his progress and getting him more involved. Based on his limited snaps with Trevor Lawrence in the preseason, that may seem a little less likely, but Bigsby has done enough to show that he should be valued as one of the elite handcuffs in fantasy football.

If Etienne were to miss time, based on their depth chart, Bigsby's play, and coach speak, Bigsby seems poised to walk into a true workhorse role. Bigsby could be a top-15 running back if Etienne were to get hurt. That's a player worth stashing.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8.3% Rostered

Irving was drafted in the fourth round after racking up 2,950 scrimmage yards and 21 total touchdowns in his past two seasons at Oregon. Despite being just 190 pounds, he proved in college he's one of the hardest players to get to the ground. He has a knack for making people miss and breaking tackles. That's something starter Rachaad White has not proven capable of yet in two years in the NFL.

Round 4 rookie Bucky Irving's career 36% avoided tackle rate at Oregon is the fourth-highest of any RB drafted since 2017.

Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving Preseason:
- 33% avoided tackle rate
- 20 of 28 yards created after initial contact

I would not want to try to tackle him. https://t.co/p94DdAqBa8

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 11, 2024

Throughout the preseason, Irving's ability to break tackles continued. White had 336 touches last season, a number Tampa Bay would ideally like to decrease. In 2023, Tampa Bay did not have a capable No. 2 running back they could depend on.

Irving appears capable of that, but that is unlikely to mean he'll have a fantasy-relevant role as a rookie. It does, however, mean that he has elite handcuff status. If White were to miss time, Irving would walk into one of the most fantasy-friendly roles for any running back.

Rachaad White among 35 qualified RBs in 2023:

Rush success rate - 35th
Avoided tackle rate - 27th
Yards after contact per rush - 31st

(Data per @TruMediaSports)

Bucky Irving among 26 qualified Power-5 RBs in 2023:

Rush success rate - 2nd
Avoided tackle rate - 1st
Yards after… https://t.co/Yj4YlyiGuJ

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 19, 2024

It's worth noting that White was one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL last season. Even if it is unlikely, it's possible that Tampa Bay could increase Irving's role as the season goes along if White isn't more efficient in the running game. Given White's veteran status, it's a long shot that Irving would officially take over, but given White's limitations as a runner, Irving has a chance of making this more of a committee backfield.

Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers – 9.8% Rostered

Mason is completely locked in as the handcuff to Christian McCaffrey. He's currently the only healthy running back on the roster. CMC is still not practicing. Elijah Mitchell is on IR, and rookie Isaac Guerendo injured his groin. As long as McCaffrey is healthy, Mason is unlikely to have much of a role. That's the nature of being the backup to the best running back in the world. If you want to stash a handcuff, Mason is a good bet.

Braelon Allen, New York Jets – 8.3% Rostered

Allen holds almost zero no stand-alone value. Breeca Hall will be one of the league's biggest workhorse backs this year. He could very well have a Christian McCaffrey type of workload. Allen is a huge back, measuring in at 6-foot-1 and 235 pounds. He's just 20 years old and looks like an absolute bowling ball on the field.

New York Jets rookie Round 4 RB Braelon Allen:

- 16 touches
- 93 rush+rec yards
- One of just two rookie RBs with more rush yards before contact than after (Will Shipley being the other) pic.twitter.com/PB4MduALG0

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 26, 2024

The Jets significantly upgraded their offensive line, and with Aaron Rodgers under center, there should be many more scoring opportunities in 2024 than in 2023. If Hall were to miss time for any amount of time, Allen would become a top-24 running back. His upside won't be anywhere as close to Hall's because he doesn't have the same receiving profile, but stashing Allen could pay off big if Hall gets hurt.

 

Wide Receivers - Waiver Wire for Week 1

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts – 11.9% Rostered

Downs suffered a high-ankle sprain during the preseason, which could keep him out of Week 1. However, it's unlikely that his absence would last much longer than that. Based on his rookie season, Downs is a player fantasy managers must have on their rosters. Despite being a third-round pick, Downs immediately showed he can play at the NFL level.

That showcased itself in the numbers, stats, and film study. We’ll start by looking at the numbers and comparing him to another rookie receiver from last season, who we’ll leave unnamed, who went at WR34 compared to Downs, now available in almost 90% of leagues.

Player	Target Share	TPG	RPG	RYPG	YPT	YPR	YPTPA	YAC per Target	Route Win Rate	Win Rate vs Man	ADP
WR A	17.6%	5.9	4.0	49.6	8.4	12.4	1.43	3.6	51.3%	45.2%	WR34
Josh Downs	17.9%	5.8	4.0	45.4	7.9	11.3	1.34	3.8	52.7%	47.2%	WR60

As you can see from the table above, Downs performed a little better in some areas and a little worse in others, but for the most part, these players were nearly identical. That unnamed rookie is Jayden Reed of the Green Bay Packers.

Reed does provide some value on the ground for fantasy purposes, but it’s wild just how different their ADPs are when their numbers are so similar. Not only did Downs perform like another rookie receiver being drafted as a WR3, but his production was very similar to that of his teammate, Michael Pittman Jr. until Downs hurt his knee.

Michael Pittman and Josh Downs were on the field together for 424 routes in 2023. The gap in their production while sharing the field was closer than you might realize.

Targets
108 - Pittman
88 - Downs

Receiving yards
824 - Pittman
727 - Downs

PPR points
165.4 - Pittman
145.7…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 31, 2024

The offseason reports on Downs stated he was one of Indianapolis' best offensive weapons and had been forming a strong connection with Anthony Richardson. Downs only finds himself on the waiver wire because of his ankle sprain, which could keep him out of Week 1, but truthfully, that makes him even more appealing.

You can roster Downs, a good player, and if he's ruled out, you can stash him on IR and add another lottery ticket. That essentially gives you two dart throws for the price of one.

Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers – 29.4% Rostered

Mike Williams tore his ACL in Week 3 and missed the rest of the season. Palmer missed Weeks 9-14 and Week 17, so he played ten games last season. He operated as the No. 2 starter opposite Keenan Allen in seven. Including Week 3, when Williams tore his ACL midway through the game, Palmer had 55 targets, 34 receptions, and 564 yards in those eight games.

If we extrapolate these per-game averages across 17 games, Palmer would have finished with 117 targets, 72 receptions, and 1,198 yards. Herbert also missed three of those seven games. He averaged 10.5 half-PPR PPG during these contests, which would have been the WR32, tied with Zay Flowers last season.

He finished as a top-40 receiver in six out of eight games, which included two weeks where he finished as the WR11. For the remaining two weeks, he was WR78, which came in Week 8 in a game he left early and would miss Weeks 9-14 and be WR46 in Week 16.

In Weeks 3-18, Palmer had an 18.2% target share. In Weeks 15-18, when Allen was out of the lineup, Palmer's target share increased to 19.6%. That was without Herbert. If we anticipate the Chargers' pass attempts per game average dropping to 33, which would have ranked 22nd last season, and give Palmer a 20% target share, he will finish with 113 targets.

In five games from 2022-2023 where Williams and Allen did not play, Palmer averaged 8.0 targets (136), 5.2 receptions (88), and 70.8 yards (1,204) per game. In 11 games from 2022-2023 where Williams did not play, Palmer averaged 7.6 targets (130), 4.8 receptions (82), and 69.5 yards (1,181) per game. In 10 games from 2022-2023 where Allen did not play, Palmer averaged 7.7 targets (131), 4.9 receptions (83), and 58.9 (1,001) yards per game.

Given the lack of quality or known pass-catchers behind Palmer, he could flirt with a 22% target share. That would mean 123 targets. Palmer's career yards per target average is 7.8; with 123 targets, he'd finish with 963 yards. In 2023, he averaged 9.5 yards per target, equaling 1,169 yards on 123 targets. Palmer is unlikely to be a league winner, meaning a top-20 finish, but he could certainly be a top-36 receiver and a WR3, which would be a solid return on a WR58 investment.

Ja'Lynn Polk, New England Patriots – 22.6% Rostered

The main selling point for Polk is simple: What if he's good? What if Maye is good? What if Maye is excellent? We won’t know the answer to those questions anytime soon, but we should embrace that possibility and that unknown. Maye was the No. 3 overall pick for a reason. Does that guarantee success?

It doesn’t, but we’re still discussing a good prospect. He was highly productive in North Carolina, and if the No. 3 overall pick ends up being good or even great, will anyone be surprised? Absolutely not! At least, they shouldn’t be.

Last season, Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, Pharaoh Brown, Ty Montgomery II, and Kayshon Boutte combined to have 408 targets, 261 receptions, 2,532 yards, and 16 touchdowns. How many of those players are good? How many are average? How many are below average? How many are bad? There is just so much opportunity in New England this season.

Why not roll the dice? What if Maye is better than we thought, and Polk is good, too? Embrace the unknown. We may not know anything about Polk as an NFL player yet, but we're not in the dark. Polk's Reception Perception Profile had plenty of positives, precisely this:

"You get a good glimpse of Polk playing many different roles in college. He took 60.6% of his sampled snaps outside but traveled into the slot for a healthy 35.8% and was in the backfield as a pre-snap motion option for 3.6%. He was on the line for 52.9% of his snaps and off the line for 47.1%. Polk has the necessary success rates to project him to those multiple roles. His 68.5% success rate vs. man isn’t eye-popping but it’s in a reasonable range. You can say the same for his 69.2% success rate vs. press. Polk doesn’t have the early burst in his routes to gain easy quick separation, but he has good build-up speed that gets him open against man coverage. Those are the types of scores you want to see if you need him to hack it outside occasionally in the pros. Where Polk really shines is against zone coverage. Hsi 83.5% success rate vs. zone beats out several prospects projected to go higher than him in late April. In fact, among receivers sampled from this class, only his teammate Rome Odunze has a better success rate vs. zone coverage. I love the way Polk diagnoses zones. He works leverages well and knows when to bend routes over a hole in the zone or cross over a defender in the middle of the field. That build-up speed mentioned above sneaks up on defenders and he can rip up downfield coverage unexpectedly."

In his final season at Washington, Polk racked up 108 targets, 69 receptions, 1,159 yards, and nine touchdowns. He ran 41% of his routes from the slot and 59% out wide, displaying good versatility and the ability to win from multiple positions. He finished the year with an average of 2.29 yards per route run and averaged 5.2 yards after contact per reception. Out of 126 receivers with at least 75 targets, Polk finished:

• 29th in targets (108)
• 39th in receptions (69)
• 15th in yards (1,159)
• 21st in touchdowns (9)
• 23rd in yards per reception (16.8)
• 33rd in contested catch percentage (54.2%)
• 32nd in missed tackles forced (15)
• 28th in first downs (45)

As a rookie, he has a great chance to lead New England in targets. While some may be turned off by Jacoby Brissett being named the starter, he did support Amari Cooper in the 11 games he started as a Brown in 2022 under the same offensive coordinator in New England. During those 11 games, Cooper was on pace for 144 targets, 88 receptions, 1,224 yards, and 11 touchdowns. During those 11 games, Cooper averaged 13.5 half-PPR PPG, good for WR12.

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers – 18.4% Rostered

Wicks just might be really good, and players who just might be really good are worth betting on and having on your roster, even if their situation seems a bit murky at the moment. Wicks is the Packers' No. 4 receiver behind Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed. However, Wicks has plenty of contingency paths to fantasy relevance.

First, Watson could get hurt. It's a scenario that has happened more often than not in his first two seasons in the league. Two, he could leap-frog Doubs. Doubs is a solid role player, but he doesn't wow you in any facet of his game. He's dependable but boring. Wicks' explosiveness and big-play potential could get him on the field more and more. Third, Reed could continue to operate solely as a slot receiver, which could help increase his routes and snaps.

𝗗𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝘆𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗶𝗰𝗸𝘀, what you 𝗡𝗘𝗘𝗗 to know

➖𝗛𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗬𝗣𝗥𝗥 than 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗴𝘀 (𝟭.𝟵𝟰)
➖𝗛𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗬𝗣𝗥𝗥 𝗩𝘀. 𝗠𝗮𝗻 than 𝗗𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗲 𝗔𝗱𝗮𝗺𝘀
➖𝗛𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗬𝗣𝗥𝗥 𝗩𝘀. 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 than 𝗝𝗮’𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲

Let’s talk 𝗕𝗜𝗚… pic.twitter.com/UZhMadTfve

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) June 4, 2024

Wicks passes the eye test, not only in the spreadsheets but also on film. Situations and roles can change, but talent typically doesn't at least not throughout one season. There's a very good chance that Wicks is a really good football player. The numbers and the film indicate that. Really good football players tend to see their roles and playing time increase.

Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys – 29.2% Rostered

In his first season with Dallas, he finished last season as the WR44 with an 8.9 half-PPR PPG average. Considering his current price of WR59, he looks like a pretty good bargain right off the bat. Like Lamb, Cooks was much better following the team's Week 7 bye. From Weeks 8-17, Cooks' half-PPR PPG average increased to 10.8. Calvin Ridley and Jordan Addison averaged 10.8 half-PPR PPG last year. That would've been good for WR28 on the season.

In Weeks 1-6, Cooks averaged 4.6 targets, 2.6 receptions, 21.8 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game. These poor numbers could be explained by the low passing volume Dallas was utilizing and the fact that he was in his first games with a new team, new offense, new system, and new quarterback.

For the remaining 12 games, Cooks averaged 5.5 targets, 3.9 receptions, 49.6 yards, and 0.58 touchdowns per game. Those per-game averages would have equated to 94 targets, 66 receptions, 843 yards, and ten touchdowns. We may see an increase for Cooks in his second season with Dallas.

"The connection between Brandin Cooks and Dak Prescott stood out most. It was a solid rapport last year at this time, but it was obvious during OTAs and minicamp that the two now have a full year working together."

(Cooks ranked 14th among WRs in PPR points from Week 10 on last…

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 19, 2024

The touchdowns weren't much of a fluke if that's what you think. For the 2023 season, Cooks finished 24th among receivers with 25 red zone targets and tied for fourth with 17 end zone targets.

As you can see below, Cooks was a quality player for fantasy managers in the second half of the season. In 10 games (not counting Week 18), Cooks finished as a top 24 receiver five times and scored 12.0 or more half-PPR PPG in five contests. If the image below is the kind of production we can expect to receive from Cooks in 2024, his current price tag of WR59 is an absolute steal.

Cooks has a good chance to be a dependable asset on your fantasy football bench. He may not have league-winning upside or the potential to be a top-24 receiver, but if you're looking for a player who can be confidently started in a pinch, Cooks is a solid player to bet on. He's likely to be a full-time player on one of the NFL's best and most pass-heavy offenses.

Demario Douglas, New England Patriots – 38.1% Rostered

As mentioned under Ja'Lynn Polk's section, the Patriots' pass-catcher group is wide open. Therefore, we should target this group. Douglas had a solid rookie season despite the incredibly difficult circumstances. He showed he could play in the NFL. Based on off-season reports, Douglas seems like the best bet to lead this pass-catcher group early in the season. I'd still rather bet on Polk long-term because I think his upside is higher, but Douglas is worth a roster spot, too.

"The only question the coaches should have with DeMario Douglas is whether he can stay healthy as a high-volume receiver. Douglas is the Patriots most dynamic playmaker, by far, with the ability to instantly separate on quick-hitters or break free with dynamic downfield route… https://t.co/VhDvvUdAn4

— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) August 20, 2024

He's better in full-PPR leagues because he ran as New England's full-time slot receiver. However, his upside will be limited because he comes off the field in 12-personnel settings. However, this could also lead to many targets if the other receivers are not winning downfield.

This offense is likely near the bottom of the league, but we need to consider the possibility that Maye could be really good, which could improve this offense immensely. Good quarterbacks have that capability. Due to his limited target competition and strong offseason, Douglas is worth stashing.

Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts – 33.6% Rostered

Mitchell is a big play waiting to happen, and with Downs currently sidelined with his ankle sprain, Mitchell is getting a chance to run with the starters full-time. It'll be interesting to see what happens once Downs returns because he'll return to the slot role, leaving Mitchell competing with Alec Pierce for snaps.

The good thing about Adonai Mitchell is that the Colts run a lot of 3-WR sets.

So you're getting a talented rookie who will be on the field quite often.

Shane Steichen is a great coach, too.

One of the better rookie WRs to target.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 29, 2024

Mitchell is an elite athlete, was a second-round pick in this year's draft, and could play a lot of snaps for an offense that is likely to be top in the top 15 in scoring. Rookies tend to get better as the season rolls along.

If Downs' injury limits him, lingers longer than we expect, or if it gets re-injured, Mitchell could end up being Indy's No. 2 target-earner. He could have some week-winning potential as a downfield merchant, but his weeks could be a bit boom or bust. Still, a rookie like this is talented and worth stashing.

 

Tight Ends - Waiver Wire for Week 1

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints – 36.5% Rostered

Some fantasy managers may want to avoid Hill because of some of his low-scoring weeks. He had seven games last year, scoring less than three half-PPR points. My counterpoint is that every tight end has plenty of duds outside the top eight tight ends.

Are two points really that much worse than six? How many of your fantasy matchups are decided by less than 10? What Hill does provide is week-winning upside. Based on reports throughout the preseason, Hill will be more regularly involved in the offense.

Taysom Hill To Have Huge Red Zone Role https://t.co/wxKXxz3xvq

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) August 25, 2024

Hill played 65% of the snaps with the starters this preseason, which is higher than what we've been accustomed to seeing from him. With Kendre Miller on IR, Jamaal Williams another year older, and Alvin Kamara's decreasing efficiency running the football, fantasy managers should expect Hill to have 6-8 carries per game. Based on reports, Hill could operate well as the Saints' primary goal-line back.

Carries from inside the 10-yard line the last two years:

Alvin Kamara 30
Taysom Hill 30pic.twitter.com/5oZMWOrXst

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) August 19, 2024

This stat could favor Hill even more this season. Hill could have 120 carries and 25 receptions this season. That could give him around 800 scrimmage yards and 6-8 touchdowns. That's going to play at tight end. I'd rather have Hill than Cole Kmet, for what it's worth.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets - 33.6% Rostered

Conklin has the ninth-most targets, eighth-most receptions, and 10th-most receiving yards among all tight ends. Sure, his receiving yards per game average drops him to 17th among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets, but even that is significantly better than his current ADP suggests.

Certainly, when he considers who his quarterback has primarily been, the lack of fantasy production begins to make sense. There have been 45 quarterbacks to attempt at least 300 passes since 2022. Here's where Zach Wilson ranks in just a few statistical categories out of those 45:

• 45th Completion Percentage (57.9%)
• 26th in Interception Rate (2.3%)
• 43rd in TD Rate (2.3%)
• 33rd in Yards Per Attempt (6.5)
• 37th in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (5.9)
• 34th in Yards Per Game (188.5)
• 33rd in On-Target Rate (73.4%)
• 39th in Off-Target Rate (19.4%)
• 44th in Quarterback Rating (75.4)
• 44th in Success Rate (37.0%)
• 41st in Sack Rate (10.16%)
• Since 2022, the Jets have the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the league with 26.
• Since 2022, the Jets have the 10th-fewest passing yards in the league with 7,413.

The Jets will welcome back Aaron Rodgers this season. The difference between Rodgers and what the Jets have trotted out there at quarterback the past two seasons is going to be substantial, and quite honestly, that may not even be doing it enough justice.

Rodgers' career completion percentage is 65.3%, 7.4 percentage points higher than Wilson's last two seasons. His 6.2% career touchdown rate is almost triple that of Wilson's. His career yard-per-attempt average is 1.2 yards better. His quarterback rating is 28.2 points higher. I mean, the difference is vast.

Remember where Conklin ranked the past two seasons in targets, receptions, and yards among tight ends? Top 10 in all three categories. Well, he's tied for 41st in touchdowns with three. He's tied with Jimmy Graham. Since 2022, Conklin has the 19th-highest full-PPR PPG average at 7.49 among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets.

Imagine if he catches a few more touchdowns. What if Rodgers leads to Conklin getting just a few more receptions and yards? That really should be the expectation, which makes it very likely Conklin can outplay his current TE24 ADP. Now, that won't make him a league winner. He won't be a top-12 tight end, but could he be a solid TE2? That's in his range of outcomes.

Certainly, the Jets have added increased competition with Mike Williams in free agency and third-round rookie Malachi Corley. However, Williams is coming off a torn ACL and has recently struggled to stay on the field. It's possible, maybe even likely, that Williams isn't ready for the beginning of the season.

Corley is a third-round rookie out of Western Kentucky and will transition to a significant increase in talent competition. There's no guarantee either player is ready to produce consistently this season. If either or both falters, Conklin could provide a nice positive return on investment for fantasy managers.

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints – 10.0% Rostered

Regarding tight ends, fantasy managers want to target players who could be one of their team's top two targets. Johnson has that possibility. After Chris Olave, there is little target competition in New Orleans. Rashid Shaheed was expected to be Derek Carr's No. 2 target, but he's most of the preseason.

Kamara will certainly be involved in the passing game, but Johnson could become a favorite of Carr. New Orleans is expected to have a below-average defense and one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. With Kamra's rushing decline, the Saints may be forced into very pass-heavy scripts, which would benefit Johnson.

3. Juwan Johnson (@FFPC ADP: 193rd overall, TE26)

Johnson’s ADP is buried after undergoing surgery earlier this offseason. It was just a minor surgery and he has already begun practicing in some capacity. He should be ready for the regular season.

Johnson has minimal target…

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) August 13, 2024

They also brought in a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who had been in San Francisco last season. Fantasy managers should expect a more forward-thinking offensive approach. Throughout this year's preseason, we've seen the Saints utilize pre-snap motion much higher than last year.

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins - 2.9% Rostered

Smith is an exciting player in this Miami offense, predicated on getting their players into open space and letting them make a play. This is something that Smith excels at. Despite finishing 19th in total targets (69) among tight ends, Smith still tied for second with two receptions of over 40 yards. He was among only 11 tight ends to register a 100-yard receiving game last season. Smith can make big plays. That skill set could be utilized even more under Mike McDaniel this year than Arthur Smith last year.

Among 23 tight ends with at least 50 targets, Smith finished third in yards per target (8.3), third in yards per reception (11.6), third in yards after the catch per reception (7.1), and fifth in receptions per broken tackle (8.3). This isn't the first time Smith has displayed this kind of upside after the catch. In his last six seasons in the NFL, Smith has averaged over seven yards after the catch per reception in five. He's also recorded a reception per broken tackle rate of under nine four times and under 15 five times.

He has repeatedly demonstrated that he's a weapon once he gets the ball into his hands and is incredibly difficult to bring down. Imagine that skill set in McDaniel's offense, where he'll draw up plays to get Smith in space and the ball quickly. It's exciting, especially considering how cheap his draft cost is.

Due to the two alpha receivers the Dolphins have, Smith needs to make the most of his opportunities. That's because he has never been a big target-earner in his career. He has just three seasons with a double-digit target share and just one over 15% (15.3% in 2020).

His route participation rate has undoubtedly impacted some of that because it's impossible to earn targets if you're not on the field. Smith has never cleared a 70% route participation rate and has been held below 50% on four occasions. One was his rookie year, and two others were while he was lost in the New England offense. However, he's never been a full-time player, which should create skepticism.

The only option behind Smith on the roster is Durham Smythe. He's been in the league for six years but has established a reputation as a strong blocking tight end. He's never had more than any of the following statistics in any season: 45 targets, 35 receptions, or 375 yards.

Given that, fantasy managers should feel confident that Smith will at least be utilized as their primary pass-catching tight end, which should allow Smith to break that 70% route participation rate for the first time in his career. He was close last year at 69.4%.

His target-per-route run should give fantasy managers even more optimism. In six seasons, Smith has posted a target per route run rate of over 22% in five. The other were 18.8% (2023) and 17.3% (2018). His other five seasons included target-per-route run rates of 23.4% (2017), 22.0% (2019), 22.6% (2020), 30.6% (2021), and 26.2% (2022).

This past season, Smith finished 12th among tight ends in yards per route run at 1.58. His 6.0 half-PPR PPG average ranked 20th last year among tight ends. However, the quarterback play in Atlanta did not do anyone any favors.

Last year, Atlanta finished 26th in total points and 17th in total yards. Their passing offense was even worse. The Falcons ranked 25th in pass attempts, 22nd in passing yards, and 26th in passing touchdowns. Miami finished second in total points and first in total yards. Their passing offense ranked 20th in attempts, first in yards, and fourth in touchdowns. Granted, Hill and Waddle are significantly better than Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but the weekly upside is much higher in this kind of offense.

Smith's upside will always be capped by his lack of target earnings due to Hill and Waddle, but he has the ability, skill set, offense, and quarterback to surprise people and finish as a mid-TE2. Without an injury to one of their top two receivers, finishing in the top 12 is a long shot, but Smith could finish as a mid-TE2, where he's routinely being utilized as a streamer. Fantasy managers should be buying his skill set in McDaniel's offense.

Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders - 7.6% Rostered

Sinnott is a four-year player and a former walk-on. He was redshirted in 2020 but didn't play much in 2021 as a redshirt freshman. He recorded just four targets. It wasn't until 2022 that Sinnott became a regular part of Kansas State's offense.

As a redshirt sophomore, he finished with 46 targets, 31 receptions, 447 yards, and four touchdowns. He posted an 11.8% target share and a 14.2% target rate. Sinnott was modestly effective with the targets he received, finishing with a 1.39 yards per route run average.

Sinnott broke out in his final year at Kansas State this past season. He finished with 73 targets, 48 receptions, 669 yards, and six touchdowns. He ranked fourth among all tight ends this past season in total targets. Sinnott was sixth in receptions and fourth in yards.

His 81.0 PFF receiving grade ranked ninth out of 105 tight ends with at least 25 targets. His 6.8 yards after catch per reception ranked 29th out of the same sample and his 2.02 yards per route run average was the ninth best. Sinnott had a 17.2% target share and a 21.9% target rate.

Sinnott was one of the better-receiving tight ends in the country this past season. He finished with just two drops out of 73 targets and hauled in 47.8% of his contested catch opportunities over the past two years. Those numbers made Sinnott someone to watch, but his NFL Combine performance moved the needle even higher.

Regarding the tight end position and fantasy production, there is a very strong positive correlation with elite athleticism. If you were to Google any of the best receiving tight ends of the past 20 years, almost every single one has an RAS higher than 8.0.

Ben Sinnott is a TE prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.75 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 29 out of 1116 TE from 1987 to 2024.

Splits projectedhttps://t.co/cxnYFtYIau pic.twitter.com/wT8Uyc6HDn

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 2, 2024

Sinnott came through for fantasy managers and effectively raised his draft stock with an elite NFL Combine performance. He might have to sit behind Zach Ertz for some time, but his presence makes it hard to feel intimated.

With Washington trading Jahan Dotson, there is a clear pathway for Sinnott to challenge as Jayden Daniels' No. 2 target. That may not happen in Week 1, but it could happen by Week 5-6. There is no one behind Terry McLaurin. Sinnot has a tremendous opportunity here and checks off many of the boxes we look for in rookie tight ends.

 

Team Defenses (D/ST) - Waiver Wire Streamers for Week 1

• Cincinnati Bengals – 56.9% Rostered (vs New England Patriots)
• Atlanta Falcons – 12.2% Rostered (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)
• Seattle Seahawks – 39.3% Rostered (vs Denver Broncos)
• Minnesota Vikings – 19.1% Rostered (at New York Giants)
• Houston Texans – 15.8% Rostered (at Indianapolis Colts)

 

Kickers - Waiver Wire Streamers for Week 1

• Matt Prater, Arizona Cardinals – 2.2% Rostered
• Jason Sanders, Miami Dolphins – 14.5% Rostered
• Cairo Santos, Chicago Bears – 34.4% Rostered
• Matt Gay, Indianapolis Colts – 44.7% Rostered
• Tyler Bass, Buffalo Bills – 15.6% Rostered

 

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