DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Tour Championship With Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Akshay Bhatia and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Tour Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Tour Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 30
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 18

 

Last Five Winners of the Tour

(Not Counting Starting Strokes)

2023	Viktor Hovland/Xander Schauffele	-19
2022	Rory McIlroy	-17
2021	Kevin Na	-14
2019	Xander Schauffele	-15
2018	Rory McIlroy	-13

 

Expected Cut-Line At The Tour Championship

(No cut this week) -

2023
2022
2021
2020
2019

 

East Lake

7,490 Yards - Par 71 - Bermuda

East Lake is a challenging test that ensures everyone earns their payday, which we see with this complicated layout that provides very few unique opportunities to score. That could change this year after the land was reconstructed to move the venue closer to Donald Ross' original intent. We saw all 18 tee boxes rebuilt, including an overhaul to the fairways, bunkers and greens to try and modernize the course.

The fairway grass was converted to Zoysia for better sustainability, and the layout's reshaping removed some of the sticky rough we have become accustomed to over the years.

That may be for the best since we have always landed under the narrative that East Lake is a challenging property to make up ground. In the past, the blueprint was to tread water on the long par three and four locations and take advantage of the short par fours and two par-fives. You will get a third par-five thrown into the mix down the stretch of the event this go-around, but the difficulty of modeling lands under two questions.

1. Does 150 yards extra yards and a change in layout make scoring more open? Or
2. Does adding a third par-five only increase the par-five scoring importance we have seen in the past?

Only Viktor Hovland has ever been the top scorer for the week since the change in the FedExCup rules while providing sub-53% of his scoring on those locations.

That has always been a unique ask for a course that features Bermuda grass with shaved runoffs, and it will still be essential to miss shots to the correct quadrants with how the venue is structured. Golfers who ultimately end up missing their targets will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and the addition of 78 bunkers and eight water hazards will only amp up the difficulty for the millions of dollars on the line.

 

Let's Look at the Stats

Stat	East Lake	PGA Average
Driving Distance	292	283
Driving Accuracy	54%	61%
GIR Percentage	65%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	56%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.42%	0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Strokes Gained: T2G - Recent Form (Not Weighted) (10%)

 

Weighted Donald Ross (10%)

 

Weighted Strokes Gained: Similarly Constructed Par 70/71 (10%)

 

Weighted BOB + BOG AVD (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted GIR + Prox (10%)

 

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Price
Xander Schauffele	2.5

 

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

This category landed on Keegan Bradley last week.

Current Form Is Better Than Course Projection

 

Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories

(Top 15 this week)

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

To be honest, I didn't understand the pricing this week.

Every Tour Championship always delivers starting salaries in the $13,000+ range. The fact that we got three names above $10,000 and standard options as a typical week does feel as if this is going to be a Xander Schauffele onslaught on ownership.

Unfortunately, you won't see me arguing the fact after Xander ranked first in my model for current form, course history and current form.

 

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

All four options are playable, although I'd rather play Xander Schauffele or Scottie Scheffler when push comes to shove for these first four options. I will show all player rankings that I ran in the bottom section, but it was hard when I found equal value in the group below.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I will fade Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns' built-in starting score and pivot to Viktor Hovland and Wyndham Clark. 

While I was fully in on fading both last week, the overall disappointment probably makes each worth consideration here. 

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im and Russell Henley would be my preferred targets.

 

$6,000 Options to Consider

Aaron Rai, Taylor Pendrith, Tom Hoge, Robert MacIntyre and Akshay Bhatia would be my four favorite options.

 

Model Rankings For Each Category

 

 

Win More With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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