NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 1) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pickem Contests

The preseason is finally over. It’s time for games that matter. Week 1 brings some great matchups, including the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. Another highlight will be when the Browns take on the Cowboys.

Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank their selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.

Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. There may still be some injury questions for Sunday and Monday games. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player is in or out. Let’s get to our Week 1 picks.

Week 1 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - Cincinnati vs. New England
• 15 - Buffalo vs. Arizona
• 14 - Detroit vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Patriots have reasons to be excited about their future with Drake Maye now in the fold. However, they have a bad offensive line, are lacking talent at wide receiver, and recently traded away one of their better defensive players in Matthew Judon. They are going to be a team to pick on in these types of pools throughout the season.

The Cardinals should be in a better spot this season with Kyler Murray healthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. taking over as their top wide receiver. However, they allowed the second-most points per game in the league last season and still have plenty of holes on defense. The team to go with here is the Bills, who went 7-2 at home last season.

The Lions were another excellent home team, posting a 6-2 record in Detroit last year. Their core is back for another season and they could be even better if Jameson Williams can live up to the hype. The Rams should also have a potent offense, but Puka Nacua battled a knee injury throughout the preseason. He is expected to play in Week 1, but if he gets off to a slow start, the Rams might have problems keeping up with the Lions’ offense.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 1 Pick 'Em Pools

13 - Miami vs. Jaguars

The Dolphins are the better team and should win this game handedly. The only reason I didn’t put this in my locks section is because you never know when Tua Tagovailoa is going to have an off game. He finished last season by throwing one or no touchdown passes in five of his final seven games.

TUA TO Tyreek Hill TOUCHDOWN

MIAMI NEEDED THAT BADLY.pic.twitter.com/89ZJaaL1Vj

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 14, 2024

The Jaguars have undergone change at wide receiver. They brought Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. into the fold, but lost Calvin Ridley Jr. to the Titans. Trevor Lawrence had plenty of underwhelming performances of his own, throwing one or no touchdown passes in 10 of 16 games.

12 - New Orleans vs. Carolina

Beating the Saints at home is a tall order. The Panthers were 0-9 on the road last year and are still in the early stages of a rebuilding process. Expect the Saints to win this game, but with Dereck Carr as their quarterback, I’m not sure I can ever feel confident enough in them to make them a lock.

11 - Seattle vs. Denver

The Seahawks are the more established team here. They return all of their key skill players on offense and could be even better on that side of the ball if Jaxon Smith-Njigba can improve. The Broncos will have rookie Bo Nix start right off the bat. Asking him to get his first win on the road in Seattle is a tall order.

10 - San Francisco vs. New York Jets

This should be a fun matchup between two talented teams who hope to make deep playoff runs. The Jets will have Aaron Rodgers back and a healthy Breece Hall to lead their backfield. I still like the 49ers at home because they are one of the most complete teams in football. However, Christian McCaffrey’s calf injury and the uncertainty surrounding Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t make them a lock.

9 - New York Giants vs. Minnesota

We have a battle of two bad quarterbacks here with Daniel Jones facing off against Sam Darnold. I feel more confident in Jones, who will be at home and can rack up yards with his legs. As bad as the Giants were last year, they went 4-4 at home. Darnold has never thrown for more than 3,024 yards and 19 touchdowns in a season. Look for the Giants’ defense to lead them to a victory.

Daniel Jones ➡️ Malik Nabers TOUCHDOWN!! #Giants pic.twitter.com/CYT1YqkQ0k

— The Giant Take Podcast (@TheGiantTakePod) August 1, 2024

8 - Chicago vs. Tennessee

The Titans have ushered in a new era with Derrick Henry now on the Ravens. They will throw the ball more with Wil Levis, who threw multiple touchdown passes in only two of his nine games last year. The Bears are loaded on offense, should have an improved pass rush with a full season of Montez Sweat, and will have the advantage of playing this game at home.

The only thing preventing me from making the Bears a lock is that they will be starting a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. As the top overall pick in the 2024 Draft, there will be plenty of pressure on him to start off the season on a high note. Still, I don’t think he will have a problem living up to expectations.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 1

7 - Houston at Indianapolis

The Texans are the better team between these two and got even better when they added Stefon Diggs during the offseason. However, we have yet to see what the Colts’ ceiling is with Anthony Richardson under center. He was limited to four games because of injuries during his rookie season. Still, with his rushing ability, he and Jonathan Taylor will be a dangerous duo. There will be other weeks in which I feel more confident picking the Texans.

6 - Kansas City vs. Baltimore

Surprisingly, the Chiefs were only 5-4 at home last year. The Ravens were also 7-1 on the road. Even with that on the table, I’ll lean towards the Chiefs winning this game. Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are a dangerous wide receiver duo, while Isiah Pacheco is emerging as one of the better running backs in the league. The Ravens don’t have many holes in their roster, either, but when in doubt, take the home team.

5 - Philadelphia vs. Green Bay

No home team here with this game being played in Brazil. As bad as the Eagles looked down the stretch, they have a ton of weapons and became even more dangerous on offense with the addition of Saquon Barkley. The Packers also made a big splash at running back by signing Josh Jacobs. This is a true toss up between two teams that could win the NFC.

4 - Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh

Both the Falcons and the Steelers will have a new quarterback as their starter for Week 1. We know the Falcons will be rolling with Kirk Cousins. It seems like the Steelers will go with Russell Wilson, but Justin Fields is waiting in the wings. Neither Wilson nor Fields is a great option, while Cousins is coming back from a torn Achilles.

The Falcons have more weapons on offense and I have more faith in Cousins than either Wilson or Fields. However, it’s tough to count Mike Tomlin out when it comes to keeping the Steelers competitive. I’ll take the home team, but this could be a close one.

3 - Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers might have the worst home field advantage in football. They went just 2-7 at home last season and there were often more fans of the opposing team than their own in the stadium. Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback should raise the floor for the Raiders, but it’s difficult to have much confidence in either of these teams.

2 - Cleveland vs. Dallas

The Cowboys resolved a big question mark by signing CeeDee Lamb to a hefty contract extension Monday. They’ll need him against the Browns, who allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league last season. I’ll again default to taking the home team, but these are two talented rosters. It would not be a surprise if either of them won.

Breaking: The Cowboys and CeeDee Lamb reached an agreement on a record four-year, $136 million deal that now makes him the second highest-paid non-QB in NFL history, sources told @AdamSchefter.

The deal includes a $38 million signing bonus, the largest ever given to a WR. pic.twitter.com/yPYBROcc7T

— ESPN (@espn) August 26, 2024

1 - Tampa Bay vs. Washington

The Commanders should be more fun this season with Jayden Daniels at quarterback. One of their big problems is that they have question marks at wide receiver behind Terry McLaurin. The Buccaneers surprised many by winning the NFC South last year, but they didn’t do so convincingly with their 9-8 record.

Asking Daniels to get a win in his first game on the road is tough. However, the Buccaneers are not overwhelming, by any means. This is the biggest toss-up of the week for me and is a game to avoid in pick ‘em contests.

More Weekly DFS Analysis

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