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Once a budding star, three straight seasons of declining production transformed Najee Harris into a non-exciting fantasy option.
The workload, despite its inefficiencies (3.9 career YPC), has kept Harris in fantasy football lineups. The former first-round pick tallied the sixth-most carries in 2023, and he hasn't dipped below 1,000 yards in his professional career.
A hamstring injury for Jaylen Warren has fantasy managers wondering when they should select Harris in drafts. Let's break it down.
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Najee Harris 2024 Fantasy Outlook
What was essentially a 50/50 timeshare in 2023 was expected again in 2024. Najee Harris was on the field for 50 more snaps than Jaylen Warren. The former dominated carries (255 to 149), while the latter received nearly double the targets (38 to 74). That's a lot of high-value touches going to the backup.
There's a new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh in former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith. He's relied on the run game in his career. Last season, his Falcons were at the bottom of the list in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected). Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has historically also opted for a run-first approach.
imo this is the best that Najee Harris has looked as a pro.
Eight preseason touches: pic.twitter.com/JwOCS2HV5u
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 20, 2024
Another one of Harris' negatives is the state of the Pittsburgh offense. George Pickens is the only threat at wide receiver, and Russell Wilson and Justin Fields haven't looked good behind a shaky offensive line this preseason.
Which Round Should You Draft Najee Harris In Fantasy Football?
Najee Harris gets a slight bump in the rankings due to Warren's hamstring injury. It's slight because Warren could be back before Week 1, and Cordarrelle Patterson could siphon a portion of the touches reserved for Warren.
Tomlin on Jaylen Warren: “He's out. Probably out for this week, but not anything that's a long-term concern.” #Steelers #NFL
— Blitzburgh (@Blitz_Burgh) August 20, 2024
When to select Harris depends on the format of your league. Warren will take the majority of passing downs work, leaving Harris as a David Montgomery-style runner. In non-PPR formats, Harris can be drafted with confidence in the fifth round. Harris' value takes a tumble in leagues that reward points for receptions. I'd feel more comfortable selecting him after his ADP (71.6) in those formats.
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