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The average draft position tells us that 10 players are routinely selected in the first round of fantasy football drafts. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jonathan Taylor, and A.J. Brown comprise that list.
McCaffrey hasn't practiced for weeks due to a strained calf. Lamb and Chase haven't participated in training camp due to contract disputes. Jefferson may endure a season of mediocre quarterback play. While they are still surefire first-round picks, the quartet has red flags heading into the 2024 season.
What about the safest picks, the players who carry little risk in the new year? The three wide receivers listed below are bust-proof.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
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- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
The NFL's best, as voted on by the players, has back-to-back 119-catch, 1,700-yard seasons in Miami. Head coach Mike McDaniel has perfected an offense that led the league in passing and total yards last year.
TYREEK HILL. HUGE TOUCHDOWN.
📺: #CARvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/Uis2fkF3el— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
Pieces have shifted on the offensive line but the rest of the offense remains. Tua Tagovailoa got paid in the offseason, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane tag team the backfield, and Jaylen Waddle is one of the best second-option wide receivers in the league.
The longer that Lamb holds out, the safer Hill looks as the second overall pick. If McCaffrey doesn't return soon, the case can be made for Hill to be the top selection in fantasy football. Although he is dealing with a minor hand injury, McDaniel said he could practice in full if needed.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown established himself as one of the premier wide receivers in the game and the Lions rewarded him with a hefty contract extension. The "Sun God" finished second in receptions (119), third in yards (1,515), and fifth in target share (30.2%). With 10 touchdowns, it equaled the WR3 finish.
The Lions get on the board first 😎@jaredgoff16 | @amonra_stbrown
📺: #Kickoff2023 on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/EBLJ3Rwf5g pic.twitter.com/ZtuqfWCMFt— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2023
St. Brown is your man if you want consistency and safety from your first-round selection. He scored fewer than 16 PPR fantasy points just three times in 2023. The Lions, one of the league's best offenses last season, remain intact.
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown is possibly the least talked about first-round pick this season. He has back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons, resulting in WR6 and WR5 finishes. That was with the Philadelphia offense imploding in the back half of the 2023 season.
Who remembers this INSANE 1 handed touchdown catch from AJ Brown last season?! pic.twitter.com/SXRg2vD6EY
— EatWatchBet (@EatWatchBet) August 19, 2024
Jalen Hurts will still be captaining the Eagles offense but a new man is calling the plays. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore arrives following stops in Dallas and Los Angeles. His offensive philosophy is about a quick pace, motion, and getting the ball into the hands of his best players.
Brown commanded a 30%+ target share last season and it would be a shock if that number wasn't similar in the new season. He's in his prime (27 years old) and there's little doubt for another first-round-worthy campaign.
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