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"How should I start my draft?" It's a common question that many fantasy analysts get asked, and for good reason. It's not only important to click on the right players at the beginning of your draft, but it's also just as important to avoid certain players at the beginning of your draft.
In essence, let your league mates take a gamble on these players. In this article, we'll highlight three running backs with red flags heading into the 2024 season. These warning signals wouldn't be so bright if their average draft positions (ADPs) weren't so high, but they are, and thus the flashing red warning signals.
Each of these three running backs has numerous knocks on their profile. They can all add a lot of value to their real-life NFL team (and to your fantasy team some weeks), but they're not worth taking in the early rounds. Instead, shoot for high-upside players with higher ceilings and higher floors. Avoid these three early round running back landmines in 2024.
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Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles let D’Andre Swift walk and handed Barkley a three-year deal with $26M guaranteed. On paper, it appears they’re ready to make him a true three-down workhorse. However, in reality, we saw some real efficiency decline from Saquon in 2023.
Yes, the Giants had a bad offense (and offensive line) last season, but the advanced metrics are meant to isolate the performance of the running back. Per PlayerProfiler, Barkley saw career lows in both yards created per touch (2.94) and juke rate (14.6%). He finished 46th and 48th in those categories, respectively.
Volume is king at the running back position, but it’s hard to see Philadelphia going away from some sort of committee approach with Kenneth Gainwell and/or rookie Will Shipley. The drumbeat on a “significant” role for Gainwell, in particular, has continued throughout camp.
Barkley has seen a decrease in targets nearly every year he’s been in the league. Now, he’ll play alongside Jalen Hurts, who has targeted his running backs just 154 times in the past two seasons. Not only that, but Hurts has also scored 28 rushing touchdowns in his last 32 games.
Even when Swift, who hadn’t seen a decline in efficiency before becoming a Philadelphia Eagle, became “the guy” last season, he only averaged 13.2 PPR fantasy points per game on a 60% snap share. He topped 20 fantasy points just once in 15 games as the starter.
Between the declining efficiency metrics, the expected decrease in receiving work, and Hurts stealing touchdown opportunities, it’s hard to put your eggs into the Saquon basket at the 1/2 turn this season. Let somebody else take a flier and hope he turns back the clock to his rookie season.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
I bet you’re asking, “How on earth can Derrick Henry fail in Baltimore?” He’s not going to fail, but he’s also not going to pay off at his Yahoo! ADP of 14.7 (RB6). No doubt King Henry is built differently, but that doesn’t make him immune from decline at nearly 31 years of age with over 2,000 career NFL carries to his name.
Henry went from a 67% snap share and 83% opportunity share in 2022 to just a 54% snap share and 65% opportunity share in 2023. Yes, that was with the Titans, but it’s likely a sign of things to come for him in Baltimore given Gus Edwards’ usage last season.
Despite being fourth among running backs in total touchdowns (13), Gus Bus averaged just 11 PPR fantasy points per game on a 42% snap share. Could Henry play on more than 42% of the snaps? Sure he could! But remember, he played on just 54% of the snaps last season with Tyjae Spears in the mix. This year, that guy in the mix will be Justice Hill.
#Ravens HC John Harbaugh on Justice Hill:
“He is a high-caliber running back… I think he’s gonna play a lot.”
Harbaugh has an 85% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak pic.twitter.com/yvg904IGR1
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 1, 2024
It’s not to say Henry won’t be good in Baltimore. He absolutely will be. But it’s hard to see the Ravens giving him the type of workload we’ve become accustomed to throughout his career. Lamar Jackson will get his 800 rushing yards and six scores as well, further eating away from that historical Henry production.
Add in the fact that Henry has never seen more than 41 targets in a season and that the Ravens have been bottom-3 in running back targets in each of the last five seasons. The only upside case with Henry is for him to find the end zone 20+ times this season. Avoid this landmine in the second round.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Here's yet another running back playing alongside a mobile quarterback. The difference between Cook, however, and Barkley or Henry, is that Cook was getting spelled by 34-year-old Latavius Murray inside the 5-yard line last season. That led to just four carries inside the five for Cook.
So what did the Bills do this offseason? They brought in 220-pound bowling ball Ray Davis, who scored 20 total touchdowns on 215 touches at Kentucky last season. Between him and 210-pound Ty Johnson, it doesn't feel like there's a whole lot of trust in Cook around the goal line once again heading into the 2024 season. And don't sleep on Johnson, either, he could have a real role this season if camp is any indication.
We haven't even talked about the new Bills offensive weapon, Curtis Samuel. Samuel comes over from Washington (and Carolina before that). Back in 2020, Joe Brady, the current Bills offensive coordinator, gave Samuel 41 carries in just 15 games and 12 of those attempts came in the red zone.
And again, if preseason and training camp are any indication of possible usage, Samuel is going to be used everywhere, including out of the backfield.
Josh Allen target distribution from day 2 of #Bills camp
7 on 7
Keon Coleman catch
MVS catch
MVS incomplete
Chase Claypool catch
James Cook catchTeam
Keon Coleman catch
Mack Hollins catch
Keon Coleman catch
Mack Hollins incomplete
Curtis Samuel catch (at RB)
James Cook…— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) July 25, 2024
Josh Allen will continue to steal rushing touchdowns. Johnson and Davis will earn reps around the goal line. Samuel will siphon rushing work and catch passes out of the backfield. So what percentage of the pie does that leave for Cook?
It feels as if it could be even less than last season when he finished as the RB19 on a per-game basis. This season, he has a Yahoo! ADP of RB15 despite the added competition for touches. Steer clear and let someone else draft this early round landmine.
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