BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~52 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~72
ANALYSIS: Since McLaurin was drafted, Washington has never, not once, thrown for more than 3,725 yards in five years. It has never had 25 touchdowns. Washington has finished with fewer than 3,500 passing yards in four out of the last five seasons. Twice, it has finished with less than 20 touchdowns.
In McLaurin’s five seasons in Washington, the team averages 3,462 passing yards and 20.5 touchdowns per season. Washington has the 10th-fewest passing yards and seventh-fewest passing touchdowns since McLaurin’s rookie season.
Despite that, McLaurin has had over 1,000 yards every season since his rookie year. From 2020-2023, excluding his rookie season, McLaurin is averaging 7.82 targets, 4.85 receptions, 66.12 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns per game.
Those per-game averages equate to 133 targets, 82 receptions, 1,124 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns over 17 games. It's pretty darn impressive, considering how pathetic his quarterbacks have been.
Enter Jayden Daniels. It is not a stretch to say he’ll be, by far, the best passer McLaurin has ever played with. He’s caught passes from Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz, Sam Howell, and Jacoby Brissett.
We don't need Daniels to be a superstar. We just need him to be okay, that would be an improvement on what McLaurin has dealt with thus far.
In his four seasons with the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses averaged 614 pass attempts per season. In 2022, they threw the football 664 times, which is a bit of an outlier. In 2019-2021, they averaged 597 pass attempts per year. From 2019-2021, again eliminating the 2022 season, the Cardinals averaged 4,044 yards per season and 25.5 touchdowns.
WRs who have at least 75 receptions & 1,000 receiving yards in each of their last four seasons ⬇️
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/jHeP85IPNw— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) July 4, 2024
McLaurin had a 21.6% target share in 2023. Before that, he had target shares of 22.6% (2022), 24.5% (2021), and 25.4% (2020). If we expect the Commanders to throw it 597 times as Kingsbury’s offenses did in Arizona, and McLaurin has a 22% target share, he’d have roughly 125 targets.
Based on his career averages, he’d finish with 78 receptions, 1,092 yards, and five touchdowns. But those career averages are based on his time catching balls from Keenum, McCoy, Smith, Haskins, Allen, Heinicke, Gilbert, Wentz, Howell, and Brissett.
What if Daniels is a lot better? Shouldn't that be the expectation because he’s the No. 2 overall pick and a former Heisman winner?
His current cost indicates fantasy managers can mostly buy him at his floor. While McLaurin may have disappointed in years past, he’s continued to show he’s one of the better receivers in the league. Hopefully, Daniels can bring out more from McLaurin than we’ve seen thus far.
More Fantasy Football Values and Sleepers
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 3
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 51% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Chuba Hubbard proved in Week 2 that he is the best offensive player on the worst offensive team in the league through the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season. In Week 1, Hubbard was ineffective, accumulating only 14 rushing yards […]
Jalen Nailor (WR, MIN) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 3
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 1% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Nailor scored a touchdown for the second consecutive week Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. With Jordan Addison out due to an ankle injury, Nailor played 93% of offensive snaps and became a full-time player. .@jalennailor in the back of the end […]
Alexander Mattison (RB, LV) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 3
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 38% of Leagues ANALYSIS: After being a popular waiver addition this past week, Mattison found the endzone for the second straight game Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens. Mattison punches it in!👊 #LVvsBAL 📺 @ParamountPlus pic.twitter.com/8onoPY50KA — Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 15, 2024 While that was […]
Isaac Guerendo (RB, SF) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 3
BALLER MOVE: Add in 14+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 6% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell’s injuries have turned the 49ers’ running back room on its head, but the team has found a way to make things work. As a result, rookie running back Isaac Guerendo is now second on the 49ers depth […]
Zach Ertz (TE, WAS) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 3
BALLER MOVE: Add in 14+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 8% of Leagues ANALYSIS: The 12th-year tight end is coming off a solid Week 2 performance which saw him catch four passes for 62 yards and finish as the TE8. ZACH IS FIRED UP @budlight | #EasyToCelebrate pic.twitter.com/sc1gWdfCgQ — Washington Commanders (@Commanders) September 15, 2024 Washington […]
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!Win More With RotoBaller
Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!