RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~57 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~74
ANALYSIS: After a coming-out party in his first year in Jacksonville (2022), Kirk came back down to earth in 2023. He went from averaging 11.8 half-PPR points per game in 2022 to just 10.8 points last season. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s the difference between a solid WR2 and a middling WR3 in fantasy football.
So what happened? Calvin Ridley happened. With Ridley on the field, Kirk saw his high-value opportunities diminish. He went from 24 deep targets to just 13 and from 22 red zone targets to just six. That’s right, Kirk only saw six red zone targets in 2023 to Ridley’s 25 (which was good for third among wide receivers). Kirk’s target share (20.8%), target rate (22.9%), and air yards share (26.5%) all dropped by around 2-3% as well.
But even with Ridley playing alongside him last season, Kirk still produced 2.12 yards per route run (19th among wide receivers) while playing 67.4% of his snaps from the slot. That’s impressive. While he’ll still play a good number of his snaps from the slot this season, it likely won’t be 67.4% of them, considering he played 52% of his snaps from the slot in 2022 as the alpha in the room.
Christian Kirk is fast and the Jaguars have the lead 💯#JAXvsNO on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/89nUeCngbn pic.twitter.com/SQfWTMpTUg— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2023
Betting on Kirk is a bet on talent, chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. not being the next Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson right out of the gates. It feels like a good one to make, with Lawrence and the Jaguars likely to take a step forward in 2024.
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