RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~44 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~61
ANALYSIS: Let’s first focus on how Pickens's situation and environment have changed for the better. The Steelers traded Kenny Pickett and brought in Russell Wilson. Now, Wilson isn’t great. This is not the Seattle Seahawks' Russell Wilson, but the bar to be better than Pickett is incredibly low, and Wilson clears it by a country mile.
Whatever you think of Wilson, he’s much better than Pickett, who is on the Zach Wilson level. Wilson is on the Derek Carr level. Now, that’s just one piece of the situational improvement. The other is the Diontae Johnson trade. Now check this out.
| Stat | With Diontae | Without Diontae |
| Games | 13 | 4 |
| Targets | 5.69 (97) | 8.25 (140) |
| Receptions | 3.54 (60) | 4.25 (72) |
| Yards | 60.23 (1,024) | 89.25 (1,517) |
| Touchdowns | 0.23 (4) | 0.50 (8) |
| Half-PPR PPG | 9.19 (156) | 14.45 (246) |
Some of you might be worried about the new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith. I get it, his stint in Atlanta was rough. However, some of that can be attributed to the quarterbacks he was forced to play. Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder… there’s only so much a coach can do. In 2019, the Titans, with Smith as offensive coordinator finished 10th in points and 12th in yards. In 2020, they were fourth in points and second in yards. In his final season in Tennessee (2021), they finished 15th in points and 17th in yards.
Take a gander at Smith’s No. 1 receivers from 2020-2023, excluding 2019, which was A.J. Brown’s rookie season.
- AJ Brown, 2020: 25.9% (9th highest)
- AJ Brown, 2021: 27.0% (9th highest)
- Drake London, 2022: 29.4% (5th highest)
- Drake London, 2023: 23.3% (25th highest)
Those are some elite target shares! Pickens finished with 1,428 air yards, which was the 18th-most at the position. Not surprisingly, he also racked up a ton of unrealized air yards, 676 of them to be exact, which was the 16th-highest in the league. He finished with just eight red zone targets, tied for 56th among receivers. A better quarterback should lead to more red zone work in 2024, increasing his touchdown potential.
Despite the atrocious quarterback play, Pickens averaged 2.20 yards per route run, the 17th-best. This increased to 3.00 in the four games without Johnson. He also averaged 10.8 yards per target (fifth-best), 18.1 yards per reception (first), and 2.25 yards per team pass attempt (11th-best). He managed those excellent efficiency metrics despite just 68.9% of his targets being deemed catchable, which ranked 61st.
He had 63 receptions, 1,140 yards, and five touchdowns last year. He's in an excellent situation to improve on those numbers. Even if some of his efficiency metrics fall, he had just 106 targets total in 2023, which should be closer to 130 in 2024. Pickens has easy WR2 potential this season and should be targeted consistently at his current ADP.
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