RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~29 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~42
ANALYSIS: In his first season playing alongside Tyreek Hill in Miami (2022), Waddle averaged 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game. Last season, that number dropped to 14.2 fantasy points per game. So what happened?
It could have been just random variability. He went from eight touchdowns in 2022 to just four in 2023 despite having the same number of red zone targets. But his YPRR still ranked in the top 8 among wide receivers, per PlayerProfiler. His efficiency, however, took a major hit in 2023. He went from 11.7 YPT and 18.1 YPC to 9.8 YPT and 14.1 YPC. Those numbers are still elite and still yielded solid fantasy value last season. But we know the ceiling is top-10 (as we saw in 2022), even with playing alongside the most elite weapon in the NFL in Hill.
So why will 2024 be different for Waddle? Well, he’s healthy heading into the season. Of course, we can’t bank on a full season of health, but that’s what we got from Waddle in his first two NFL seasons. Last season, he was in and out of a few games due to a multitude of injuries and just couldn’t get into a good rhythm.
He’s also due for positive touchdown regression after scoring just one touchdown every 26 targets. Meanwhile, Hill scored 13 touchdowns on 171 targets (one every 13.2 targets). Tyreek also had 25 red zone targets a year ago compared to just 11 of them in 2022. If even just some of those go to Waddle, we should see an uptick in penguin celebrations in 2024.
He was GONE when his feet hit the ground! 🐧 @D1__JW
📺: #MIAvsBUF on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/OppdDaKY2o pic.twitter.com/tdhvjv5Y2i— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022
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