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Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 21 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at Logan Gilbert, Bailey Ober, Hunter Brown, and Yusei Kikuchi. Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
This week, I will focus on a broader stat that can influence other aspects of a pitcher's game: walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP). While WHIP is a more general stat, it relates to many advanced stats. Pitchers with higher WHIPs allow more runners on the base paths, which leads to more chances for poor outcomes.
At this point in the season, pitchers have logged enough innings to compile broad performance profiles. These profiles can be used to determine who to start and who to avoid, which matters for fantasy managers more than ever. Fantasy managers cannot afford to make roster mistakes as the fantasy playoffs approach, so let's get into it!
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WHIP Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 11, 2024.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
7-8, 2.91 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 25.3% Strikeout Rate
Logan Gilbert has been a useful fantasy starter throughout his career and has taken a step forward in 2024. The 27-year-old is having a career season, going 7-8 with a 2.91 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 25.3% strikeout rate in 24 starts and 154 2/3 innings pitched. His WHIP is currently the lowest among qualified pitchers. What has he done well this season?
Gilbert's 4.6% walk rate is the lowest of his career and is in the 94th percentile of baseball, but it isn't drastically different than his 5.3% career mark. The big difference in his WHIP is the lack of hits allowed. Gilbert has allowed a .232 BABIP, which is a career-low and is much lower than his .273 career average.
Gilbert's batted-ball profile supports his improved results. He has posted a career-low in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and launch angle. This could perhaps be due to his pitch mix. Gilbert has thrown five pitches at least almost 10% of the time and has thrown his four-seamer the least frequently of his career.
He has thrown his four-seamer and slider essentially the same amount as his primary pitches, which has helped him keep hitters off balance. He hasn't struck out a ton of hitters, but he has done a good job avoiding contact with a 14.4% overall swinging-strike rate. Whether generating swings-and-misses or inducing non-damaging contact, his .232 expected batting average aligns with his BABIP.
Gilbert isn't the most overpowering pitcher, but he has offered a very high fantasy floor this season. He does an excellent job avoiding walks and has taken steps forward in limiting contact and avoiding damaging contact. He has a five-pitch mix that has kept hitters guessing even more than usual and has led to a career-best batted-ball profile. I think Gilbert should continue to be a high-floor, higher-ceiling fantasy option down the stretch.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
12-5, 3.52 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 27.3% Strikeout Rate
Despite solid results, Bailey Ober has been a somewhat overlooked fantasy option throughout his career. The 29-year-old has had another solid campaign, going 12-5 with a 3.52 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 20 starts and 128 IP. His 1.06 career WHIP is solid and his current 0.97 WHIP is even better. Can he sustain this high level of performance for the rest of the season?
Interestingly, Ober has actually posted a career-high 6.2% walk rate this season. This is still a respectable mark, but one would not expect a career-high walk rate and a career-low WHIP in the same season. Like Gilbert, Ober's strong WHIP can be attributed to his career-low .241 BABIP.
His batted-ball profile tells the story. Ober has done a great job avoiding hard contact with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 80th and 73rd percentiles of baseball, respectively. Like several of the Twins starters, Ober is a flyball pitcher with a 20.4-degree launch angle, working up in the zone with his fastball. This profile in combination with soft contact has led to a lot of harmless contact.
Bailey Ober, last nine starts...
61.1 IP, 1.76 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.8% BB, 31.9% K, .152 BAA
Ober is one of only seven qualified SP with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 20+% K-BB this season (Skubal, Gilbert, Ryan, Glasnow, Cease, Flaherty)#MNTwinspic.twitter.com/ZRuU3OXbDk
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) August 10, 2024
I am somewhat skeptical that Ober's excellent batted-ball results are sustainable. His batted-ball profile is the best of his career but resembles results he has gotten before. I would not expect his incremental results to lead to a BABIP that is 30 points lower than his career average.
Overall, Ober is relying on a formula that has worked for him for most of his career and has done it better than ever. Despite walking more batters, he has been excellent at generating weak flyball contact. This has led to positive results throughout his game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of regression down the stretch but would be glad to have him on my fantasy roster regardless.
WHIP Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 11, 2024.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
9-7, 3.98 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 24.9% Strikeout Rate
Hunter Brown has been a serviceable fantasy starter this season, going 9-7 with a 3.98 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 24.9% strikeout rate in 23 appearances (22 starts) and 122 IP. He has had ups and downs and his 1.37 WHIP is one of the highest among qualified starters. Should fantasy managers feel comfortable trusting him for the rest of the season?
Brown has never been excellent when it comes to handing out free passes. His 8.8% walk rate is in line with his 8.5% career mark but leaves room for improvement. His .325 BABIP could certainly use improvement and is likely the culprit behind his high WHIP.
Interstingly, Brown hasn't allowed a ton of contact at 77.3% and the contact he has allowed has been favorable. His 10-degree launch angle is fine and is paired well with a stellar 86.1-MPH average exit velocity and 30.8% hard-hit rate. Brown has done an excellent job limiting hard contact yet has a high BABIP, which seemingly suggests bad luck. His 3.52 xERA and 3.84 SIERA support this.
Despite a high WHIP, there are encouraging underlying signs for Brown. The main one is that he has done a great job avoiding hard contact. It hasn't reflected in his BABIP on the season, but his peripherals have been great in the second half of the season. This may not be good enough for fantasy managers in roto leagues, but I think Brown can be trusted the rest of the way in at least points leagues.
Yusei Kikuchi, Houston Astros
5-9, 4.62 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 27.5% Strikeout Rate
Yusei Kikuchi is now a teammate of Brown's and has had a similar season in some ways. He has been useful at times, but his 5-9 record and 4.62 ERA have left something to be desired. Further, his 1.33 WHIP has not inspired confidence. Could a move to Houston be just the thing he needs to right the ship?
Yusei Kikuchi earns his first victory for the @Astros, who win the Silver Boot Series for the 8th straight year. pic.twitter.com/uD8mu8vvp5
— MLB (@MLB) August 7, 2024
Unfortunately, his batted-ball profile simply is not strong enough to get good results. He has allowed very hard contact, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both in the bottom 10 percent of baseball. This is paired with a 15.3-degree launch angle, which has led to a career-high .336 BABIP.
It is possible the Astros can help Kikuchi figure things out, but his batted-ball profile is a huge impediment. His 4.03 xERA and 3.43 SIERA are both much lower than his ERA, but I have trouble buying it given his other underlying metrics. It is possible that the Astros can help him get more aligned with his ERA estimators, but everything will have to start with his batted-ball profile.
I would not be willing to trust Kikuchi at a time when every fantasy outing matters.
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