RADIO
Welcome to my favorite article of the year -- 2024 Bold Predictions. Every NFL season is chaotic, and during the offseason, fantasy players think they know way more than they do. Embracing variance and expecting outlier outcomes is necessary to prepare for fantasy drafts. Being bold by pushing back against groupthink and taking chances where you think the market is wrong can be a huge advantage in fantasy football.
Last year in this article, I predicted big seasons for both Lions RBs and rookie TE Sam LaPorta. In 2021, I wrote about an undervalued Cooper Kupp before his record-shattering Super Bowl season. In 2022, I predicted a big season for then-rookie RB Kyren Williams, but it turned out I was a year early. I’ve had my share of misses over the years but I do believe that my close evaluation of college film gives me an edge when projecting players in the NFL. The purpose of this article is to nail some predictions and help you win your league.
A lot of sharp fantasy analysts have finally caught up to the way I’ve always drafted. My philosophy is based on almost ignoring the floor, shooting for the upside with every pick, and prioritizing youth. I also look to exploit median season-long projections, which are borderline useless considering the injuries and chaos of every NFL season. Most fantasy players also don’t realize how many draft picks don’t matter that much. There are only a few true impact picks each year. Hopefully, this article will help you find them.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Who is this year’s Kyren? Puka?
The common response is “there won’t be one.” While that’s probably true, I don’t think the question has to be 18th rd rookie WR or 2nd yr RB.
Something crazy is going to happen. Try to nail a 99th percentile outcome.
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@draft32teams) July 13, 2024
1. Garrett Wilson earns 178 targets and finishes as the WR1
If Aaron Rodgers didn't tear his Achilles in Week 1 last season, where would Garrett Wilson be going in 2024 fantasy drafts? He would have had a far more productive 2023 season, so it's reasonable to assume he would be going at least a few spots higher than his current 10.6 ADP. With an absolutely brutal trio of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle at QB, Wilson still put up over 1,000 yards last season. He, of course, only scored three touchdowns, but that was in one of the worst passing offenses in the modern NFL.
Even 80% of what we know Rodgers to be would represent such a massive upgrade that Wilson should contend for the league lead in receptions and receiving yards. And if Rodgers can at some point return to being his MVP self? Wilson is looking at prime Davante Adams levels of production. The Jets still have a good defense and don't project to be one of the faster offenses in the league, but Rodgers-to-Wilson figures to be one of the top connections in the league.
As far as target competition goes, Wilson has very little. Mike Williams will be 30 this year and is coming off injury. He's also never been a prolific target-earner. Beyond Williams, the Jets have the corpse of Allen Lazard and unproven players. Tyler Conklin is a great value in fantasy drafts, but he's not a threat to substantially impact Wilson's target share. It's wheels up for the WR1 in New York.
I can’t think of any good reason to fade Garrett Wilson at ADP. https://t.co/EjiqGZcxJm
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@draft32teams) June 14, 2024
2. Ray Davis is the late-season league winner you need
Two drafts ago, I pounded the table for Kyren Williams as a late-round running back who could end up a steal. He struggled with injuries as a rookie but was a fantasy force last season. Williams had terrific film but did not test well, which impacted his ultimate draft slot. Before this year's draft, I hoped Ray Davis would get Day 2 draft capital, but he fell to the fourth round, where Buffalo happily scooped him up. While his draft position may not have been ideal, he has everything we want in a fantasy sleeper.
Day 3 running backs are typically high-risk investments. In most cases, there's a reason they fell to Day 3. I predict Davis to be an exception. First, one of the reasons Davis slid in the draft was his age, as a 25-year-old rookie running back is probably not the most valuable long-term asset. But that's exactly why Davis is a solid bet in redraft and best ball. The Bills have no incentive whatsoever to bring him along slowly.
Davis is a tough, instinctive runner with natural contact balance and vision. He is short at just 5-foot-8, but his compact frame makes him somewhat of a bowling ball at 211 pounds. Davis' skill set is also very fantasy-friendly. He has the best RB goal-line profile on the Bills and was an exceptional receiver in college. His receiving skills make him a weapon in the passing game.
James Cook is a nice player, but it's not hard to envision Davis taking over short-yardage downs. If he proves to be a better inside runner and/or receiver than Cook, who had a bunch of drops last year, there's a non-zero chance he ends up as the 1A in a timeshare. While that projection is lofty, that's how high I am on his game.
https://t.co/IbgeeoWkt8@MoveTheSticks https://t.co/1JsqWPOzhw pic.twitter.com/y1ou4gh5qS
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) April 24, 2024
Fowler: Ray Davis could have 'sneaky-big impact' https://t.co/BivH0mcctw
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) May 7, 2024
Ray Davis #NFLDraft film breakdown by college coach https://t.co/SuWRa1S6U2 pic.twitter.com/KrBtwrDM9P
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@draft32teams) April 4, 2024
3. Jayden Daniels has the greatest rookie QB fantasy season of all time... Caleb Williams has the second-greatest
Last year, C.J. Stroud lit up the league down the stretch, while Bryce Young struggled mightily. Besides Stroud, fantasy football players haven't had much success with rookie QBs in recent years. I expect that trend to start to move in the opposite direction, starting with this season.
The pro and college games are becoming more similar, and college QBs are more prepared for the NFL than they've ever been. Jayden Daniels wasn't my favorite prospect, but he has the tools that if he hits, he hits hugely. Daniels has a very fantasy-friendly game. His rushing upside is game-breaking, and he can sling it well enough to produce through the air as well. You can read my full prospect profile on Daniels here.
Jayden Daniels #NFLDraft film breakdown by NCAA coach. https://t.co/jQQekwlNDF pic.twitter.com/Pv8YfaPNvV
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@draft32teams) March 1, 2024
If you had just these 2 data points:
This MPH
40:4 TD:INT in the SEC
What would have to be the circumstances for you to want to bet against a profile including those 2 data points? https://t.co/QanL9H1Pl8
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 22, 2024
Regarding Caleb Williams, the average fantasy player simply doesn't know how good of a prospect he was. I have been studying NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years and Williams was my highest-ranked QB since Andrew Luck. I never bought the idea that the Bears had a decision to make in regards to taking Williams or Justin Fields. Williams is a superior real-life QB who many people don't like for weird reasons or because they just didn't watch much USC football.
Williams has enough athleticism to escape and scramble, and will likely produce some rushing TDs. As far as weapons go, Williams has one of the very best receiver groups in the entire NFL. Expect him to hit the ground running.
Caleb Williams Film Breakdown by NCAA coach. #NFLDraft https://t.co/57ziPzjVR6 pic.twitter.com/VoZocct56P
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@draft32teams) February 16, 2024
4. Jonathan Taylor finishes as the RB1
Jonathan Taylor finished last season with 30 carries, 188 yards, and a touchdown in the Colts' final game. He scored at least one touchdown in each of the team's last five games. Taylor started the season off injury in addition to a holdout situation. He didn't play a snap with Anthony Richardson.
For some reason, fantasy players are treating Taylor as if Richardson will be a negative in terms of his fantasy value. I believe the exact opposite. Richardson may steal some touchdown opportunities away from Taylor and likely won't pepper him with targets. However, Richardson's legs present such a threat to defenses that I fully expect Taylor to have his most efficient rushing season ever.
Taylor has a terrific offensive coach, is fully healthy and not holding out, and is still just 25 years old. He already has an overall RB1 finish on his resume. The market has fully priced in the possibility that Richardson scores a bunch of goal-line touchdowns. If he doesn't, Taylor could lead the league in touches, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.
5. Kyler Murray finishes as the QB3
Kyler Murray never seemed to be thrilled with former head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense. Last year was Murray's first season in offensive coordinator Drew Petzing's scheme, and he was somewhat underwhelming in just eight games. However, he was coming off a serious injury and entered the lineup midseason. With a full healthy offseason and training camp in the second year of the offense, Murray is set up for a massive jump. Being healthy is also extremely important for his fantasy value, as he will make more plays with his legs this year.
In addition to full health, mobility, and more command of the offensive system, Murray will enjoy a much improved pass-catching group. Marvin Harrison Jr. projects to be one of the best rookie WRs ever, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson are both a year more seasoned, and Zay Jones is a dependable pro. Murray has a chance to put up a classic dual-threat video game season with both passing and rushing production.
6. Sam Darnold finishes as the QB12 in fantasy PPG
Kevin O'Connell appears to be great for his quarterbacks. He'll be tasked with the development of J.J. McCarthy, but if he's as good a QB coach as we think, Sam Darnold will likely be a huge benefactor of that as well. Darnold has hung around in the league despite early career struggles in a terrible situation, and the Vikings seem perfectly fine with starting him in Week 1. Darnold has all the physical tools, including mobility and the ability to make plays with his legs.
Darnold has been "playing faster" in training camp and appears to have the inside track on the QB1 job. The Vikings have an underwhelming defense and an outstanding group of weapons, including the best WR in the NFL. Add in some rushing ability and you get a very intriguing recipe for fantasy QB success.
8. Brian Thomas Jr. puts up three 20+ point spike weeks in the second half of the season
Brian Thomas Jr. was selected 23rd overall by the Jaguars and profiles as a direct replacement for Calvin Ridley. Ridley had a tumultuous season as the Jags' primary outside threat, failing to secure a bunch of big plays. Ridley only caught 76 balls on 136 targets. If Brian Thomas Jr. sees anywhere near 130 targets, he'll likely obliterate his WR42 price tag.
Thomas was the WR2 behind Malik Nabers at LSU last year, but his traits popped on film enough for the Jaguars to select him to be their top outside WR. Thomas caught 68 balls for 1,177 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns for Jayden Daniels. While some have labeled his game as raw, the physical tools, including size (6-foot-3, 209 pounds) and blazing speed (4.33 40-yard dash), are undeniable. Simply put, when a player with Thomas' tools and profile hits, he hits hugely.
Trevor Lawrence just got paid, and the Jaguars offense will look to take a step forward under Doug Pederson. While Christian Kirk and Evan Engram will both earn targets, Thomas has a physical skill set that they simply don't have, and his ability to score touchdowns from all parts of the field makes him an immediate scoring threat and potential red-zone monster.
Look how much quicker Brian Thomas Jr. is compared to everyone else… https://t.co/XyPSiCXu2W
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@draft32teams) June 7, 2024
9. Isaiah Likely outscores Mark Andrews
Unfortunately, injuries are a huge part of fantasy football. While they can ruin a team, the best fantasy players can react to news in ways that help them win. The reality is that while no one roots for injuries, some opportunities for smashes will arise when a player goes down.
There is a very small chance that Isaiah Likely outscores Mark Andrews if they play the same amount of games. But it is possible. Likely would have to run amazing on touchdown luck while Andrews would have to score three or less or show an incredibly steep decline in performance. The much more realistic path to Likely outscoring Andrews is that Andrews misses time.
Andrews has never been an every-down player for the Ravens and he struggled with injury last year. This is bold, but injuries will happen.
10. J.K. Dobbins plays 15 games and finishes as the RB10 in fantasy PPG
I'm just going to take a long-shot bet on modern medicine here. Paying too high a price for J.K. Dobbins is not a prudent move, as RBs coming back from torn Achilles injuries are extremely rare. Dobbins has had multiple serious knee injuries in addition to the torn Achilles, so he is even more of a long shot.
However, he is currently healthy and repping with the ones. Sometimes you just need hope. And if he struggles or gets hurt again, all you lost was a late-round pick. What if Dobbins somehow defies all the odds and is the 1A in a Jim Harbaugh offense with a solid offensive line? He'd turn out to be one of the best picks of the year. I'm willing to pay a cheap price to find out if a 25-year-old in 2024 can be an amazing story.
11. Jacob Cowing emerges as this year's Tank Dell
At this time, Brandon Aiyuk's status is up in the air. If he does end up traded, the 49ers will have a gaping hole at wide receiver. Ricky Pearsall was one of my favorite receivers in the draft and figures to slide into a lot of playing time if Aiyuk is dealt. However, Jacob Cowing is a deep sleeper who I believe has the talent to earn playing time at some point for Kyle Shanahan.
To be clear, I am not advocating selecting Cowing for anything other than a late-round flier in deeper leagues or a target in a rookie draft. It is unlikely he has a fantasy role in Week 1. However, I am a believer in acquiring talent and letting the chips fall, and Cowing has already generated some buzz this offseason.
As a player, Cowing is a crafty, speedy route runner with competitiveness that jumps off the screen when watching him play. He amassed 316 catches for 4,477 yards and 33 touchdowns during his college career and showed well at the Senior Bowl. The only downside with Cowing's profile is his size at just 5-foot-8, 168 pounds. It's easy to dismiss small, light WRs, but after Tank Dell burst onto the scene last year, there may be a place for them in today's NFL.
If you were in on Tank Dell, you should probably be in on Jacob Cowing https://t.co/jGI3GpaoRZ
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 19, 2024
If small light WRs really are becoming a thing (skeptical) then Jacob Cowing is an intriguing bet…
Absolute gamer. True football player. Competes. Highly productive. Has all the traits to run routes. Ran 4.38.
But 5-8, 168 is so small.pic.twitter.com/wxbaiHSYGU
— GPNGC (@draft32teams) March 15, 2024
12. Najee Harris scores four times as many touchdowns as Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren has been a more efficient player than Najee Harris, but it's easier to be more efficient as the RB2. Teams give lighter boxes and easier run looks when the backup is in the game, and smaller samples help efficiency as well. Harris isn't the most explosive player in the league, but he dealt with injuries early last year and performed well down the stretch.
Arthur Smith will love Harris' style. While Warren may continue to take targets away from Harris, Najee should still be the preferred option at the goal line. In addition, Smith as offensive coordinator means a ton of rushing volume. That fits Harris' style as a grinder who can break tackles and run hard.
In the past two seasons, Harris has amassed 18 total touchdowns while Warren only has five. I expect that trend to continue, and given that the Steelers offense should be better now that both Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada are gone, Harris is a great bet for hitting paydirt double-digit times. Draft Harris over Warren.
13. Ladd McConkey produces even less than his final college season
You've found it. You've found the first piece of content on the entire internet that doesn't praise Ladd McConkey. Everyone loves McConkey, and it's reasonable to be high on his potential. His draft capital was solid and the Chargers are extremely weak at receiver. McConkey, if he ends up being a good NFL player, could see a lot of targets. However, I think his upside is limited, and I believe he is being drafted at his absolute ceiling right now in most formats. Taking McConkey over Brian Thomas Jr. in any format is a mistake a lot of people are making.
First of all, the Cooper Kupp comparisons are nonsense. Kupp is 6-foot-2, 208 pounds with the ability to line up anywhere, while McConkey is 5-foot-11, 186 pounds, and profiles as a primary slot. Yes, McConkey played snaps out wide at Georgia. No, that does not mean he'll be able to do the same with any effectiveness at his size in the pros. They are different games.
McConkey is fast and has impressive highlights of certain routes. The problem is that he was not a consistently productive force in college, so why are we paying for him to be that as he steps up a level? He topped out at 762 yards in college and only caught 30 passes this past season. Saying his production profile is underwhelming is a massive understatement.
I've heard the excuses. The Georgia offense didn't have to throw to him. Too many blowouts. Curiously, Brock Bowers had no issue producing at a high level, though. When I watched McConkey's film versus Alabama, I came away unimpressed with his translatable traits. I later found out that he was dealing with injuries during that game, and that injuries were an issue in terms of his production throughout his collegiate career. How is that a good thing? It's hard to stay healthy in college, and it sure doesn't get any easier in the NFL. He's already missed time in training camp.
McConkey's price on Underdog is patently absurd. At an ADP of 71, you're paying a sixth-round price to expect a slot receiver in a run-first offense to completely obliterate his best college season's production. It's not a bet I'm willing to make.
14. Theo Johnson finishes as the TE11 in fantasy PPG
Theo Johnson is a fourth-round rookie tight end who has been running with the ones at Giants training camp. The Giants don't project to be a juggernaut passing offense, but Brian Daboll is a sharp offensive coach and there are snaps and targets available to whoever wins the TE1 job in New York.
Johnson didn't produce huge numbers at Penn State, but in some cases, athleticism can be more important than production for tight ends. Johnson scored 9.93 out of 10 in Relative Athletic Score, which makes him the ninth-most-athletic tight-end prospect since 1987.
Athleticism is more predictive at tight end than any other position, and Johnson checks that box emphatically. Training-camp reports are also good, and he faces little to no competition in the current Giants TE room. Last year, Sam LaPorta had one of the best rookie TE seasons ever. While Johnson's upside might not be that high, there are paths to being the No. 2 option in certain games, and the target distribution among Giants pass-catchers is very much up in the air at this point. He's a great bet super late in drafts.
Theo Johnson is one of the best clicks in the 18th
Elite athleticism so important for TE.
Can excuse lack of stats at TE.
NYG have incentive to play him late regardless of how their season is going.
Already running w/ 1s.
Can block too.
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@draft32teams) August 6, 2024
15. You will skim this article and read the titles, looking to confirm the biases you already have for your players
1-for-1. Off to a great start! Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
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