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Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Cleveland Browns as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
Despite starting five different quarterbacks last season, the Browns finished 11-6 and qualified for the playoffs. Not only that, but they lost both their starting tackles, Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr., along with star running back Nick Chubb. Considering the injuries they dealt with some elite players, the fact that they made the playoffs still shows how strong this roster is. The offensive line should be healthy this season and deeper than ever with the standout play from rookie Dawand Jones. Chubb is expected back, but the biggest question mark comes with Deshaun Watson. Is he healthy? Is he good anymore?
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- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Deshaun Watson: QB23, ADP 156
Last year, Watson played five games where he played over 20% of the snaps. In those five games, he averaged 18.3 PPG. He had finishes of QB5, QB10, QB8, and QB14. He finished as a top-10 quarterback in 60% of his starts, where he played most of the snaps. Last year, an 18.3 PPG average would have resulted in a QB14 finish.
In 2022, if we eliminate the first game he played after a year and a half absence, Watson averaged 16.8 PPG in his five games last season. This would have been QB20 last year. Over his last 10 starts with Cleveland, he has averaged 17.6 PPG. This would have been QB15 last year, tied with Jared Goff, who is going as the QB12 in drafts right now.
In his final five starts with Cleveland in 2022, he had weekly finishes of QB14, QB8, and QB6. During his last 10 starts, with at least a 20% snap share, he’s finished as a top-10 quarterback 50% of the time. Over his last two seasons with Detroit, Goff has finished as a top-12 quarterback 39% of the time.
Over his last 10 starts, Watson has recorded 55 rushing attempts and 296 rushing yards. This works out to 94 rushing attempts and 503 rushing yards. If he scores three rushing scores, that’s an extra 4.0 PPG via rushing stats. If he scores four rushing touchdowns, that’s an extra 4.37 PPG.
Deshaun Watson is the biggest steal at QB right now.
✅️ Fast-paced, spread offense
✅️ Strong receiving core
✅️ Good offensive line
✅️ Rushing upside
✅️ Strong track recordBrowns stacks are a MUST in Best Ball. pic.twitter.com/f2SoRmKSlq
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 6, 2024
He struggled as a passer in those 10 contests, completing just 60.8% of his passes for 2,081 yards and 14 touchdowns. Those numbers put him on pace for 3,538 yards and 24 touchdowns, and he was also on pace for 12 interceptions. Those passing numbers certainly leave a bit to be desired, but he continues to be one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league.
For fantasy football, this creates weekly upside and a large margin of error. His passing numbers at face value are disappointing, but remember his rushing PPG? That’s where that becomes so important. Adding 4.0-4.5 PPG via rushing alone gives him a safe floor and an exciting ceiling.
The Browns hired former Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. He should help create a more up-tempo offense in Cleveland and increase the neutral pass rate. We should expect this anyway, based on Nick Chubb's injury. Without him in the lineup, look for Cleveland to lean on the passing game more than we’ve been accustomed to in years past.
In addition, Watson has some really good pass-catching weapons. Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku are good outside weapons. He won’t be asked to do the heavy lifting. Cooper is an underrated No. 1 option. Njoku is an athletic mismatch at tight end. Jeudy and Moore are quality role players as the third and fourth options.
When you get down into rounds 13 and 14 of your draft, you should look for upside, and Watson has it. Of the quarterbacks being drafted after QB18, Watson has the best chance of a top-12 finish. He’s such an easy busy at his current cost.
Verdict: Buy DeShaun Watson
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
Nick Chubb: RB29, ADP 84
Jerome Ford: RB41, ADP 116
Everyone knows how good Chubb was. There's no mystery there. He's one of the best pure running backs of this generation. He was the RB6 in 2022 with a 15.5 half-PPR PPG average and RB10 in 2021 with a 15.3 PPG average. His PPG average in 2020 was 16.6 and 15.5 in 2019. He has been the model of consistency. Chubb has been a lock to provide fantasy managers with 15 or more points per game and a finish inside the top 12 for the running back position.
He has averaged over five yards per carry every season of his career. Since 1965, among 449 running backs with at least 500 rushing attempts, Chubb ranks second in yards per carry at 5.3, behind only Jamaal Charles (5.4). Since 2018, there have been 106 running backs to log at least 200 carries. Chubb ranks first in yards after contact per attempt (2.8) and fifth in attempts per broken tackle (9.7). Chubb is one of the most talented running backs of the past 25 years. Looking at every running back's first five years in the league (2018-2022 for Chubb) from 1965-2023, he ranks 39th in rush attempts, 16th in yards, second in yards per carry, and 18th in rushing touchdowns.
None of that should come as a surprise to anyone. We don't know who Chubb will be when he returns from last season's devastating knee injury. He suffered a torn MCL, ACL, and torn meniscus in just the third week of the season. This offseason, Chubb has two different surgeries to repair the damage. Back in 2015, Chubb tore the PCL, MCL, and LCL in his left knee. He also dislocated his knee and had cartilage damage. The injury last season was to the same knee. Chubb is 28 years old and will turn 29 in December.
He's currently on the PUP list, and reports have indicated it's unlikely that Chubb is ready for the start of the season, but "believe with certainty that he will play at some point this season." What does that mean? We're all speculating somewhat, but I expect Chubb to start the season on the short-term IR. He'll miss the first four games of the year, and they'll slowly ramp him up from that point. We're most likely looking at a Week 5-6 return date, with him likely on a snap and touch count. He'll be in a committee for a while, and then, depending on how he plays and how the injury feels, maybe his role will increase as the season progresses.
But here's the thing... these injuries take time. Guys aren't out there bouncing back to 100% the next season after Chubb's injury. Especially since this is his second devastating injury to the same knee. Tearing an ACL is one thing, but each of his left knee injuries has involved way more damage than that. While he was healing from his last one at 19 years old, this time, he was 28, and he had a whole lot more wear and tear on his body. There are far too many unknowns for fantasy managers to draft Chubb in the seventh or eighth round. Many good players are left in those rounds, flex-level players and rookies with upside. Chubb's ADP should be 4-6 rounds cheaper. He's a sell.
Browns training camp:
• Nick Chubb (knee) unlikely to be ready for start of season
• Jerome Ford expected to be lead back, Pierre Strong Jr. the backup
• D'Onta Foreman to fill short yardage rolehttps://t.co/y1ZcZHyLEj— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) July 28, 2024
If we're selling Chubb, you can almost guarantee we're buying Ford, and you'd be correct. Chubb got injured in Week 2, playing just 21% of the snaps. From Weeks 2-17, Ford averaged 12.2 half-PPR PPG, RB21 during that span. In those 15 games, he finished as a top-10 running back in four weeks. He finished as a top-24 running back an additional seven times. That means that in 11 out of 15 weeks, Ford provided fantasy managers with RB2 numbers or better. There was a 12th week where he finished as the RB28 and a 13th where he was RB30. With a draft price of RB41, Ford is a steal.
From Weeks 2-17, Ford was 28th in rushing yards per game at 51.4. Over 17 games, that would equate to 874. He averaged 4.15 (21st), 3.8% explosive run rate (30th), 0.25 missed tackles forced per attempt (10th), and 2.91 yards after contact per attempt (ninth). Ford was an efficient player, but unfortunately, the team didn't trust him when they got close to the goal line. Kareem Hunt handled 12 (75.0%) of the team's 18 carries inside the five-yard line. Ford handled just four (22.2%). Inside the 10-yard line, Hunt handled 15 (55.6%) of the team's 28 carries in this range. Ford had 10 (33.3%). Hunt is no longer on the team and has been replaced by D'Onta Foreman. If Ford were to get more work near the end zone, his fantasy value could be even higher than last season.
From Weeks 2-17, Ford had a 10.4% target share, ranked 19th. He averaged 3.9 targets per game, amounting to 67 targets over 17 games. During this span, Ford registered a 1.07-yard-per-route run average, 23rd among running backs with at least 25 targets. He finished with 42 receptions, 14th most. He was used regularly in the passing game, finishing with a 43.6% route participation rate, ranking 15th. In the 15 games that Ford operated as Cleveland's No. 1 running back, he averaged 15.2 touches per game, putting him on pace for 258 touches over 17 games.
His workload would shrink once Chubb returns, but how Chubb will return is unknown. Will he be effective? If he's not, Ford could continue to operate as the RB1A for Cleveland. Fantasy managers can feel confident they're getting at least five weeks of Ford being the clear No. 1 running back early in the season. After that, we should expect a committee approach, meaning Ford will retain flex value. Given his RB41 price tag, it's hard to imagine Ford not providing fantasy managers with a solid return on investment.
Verdict: Sell Nick Chubb and Buy Jerome Ford
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Amari Cooper: WR25, ADP 52
Jerry Jeudy: WR55, ADP 138
Elijah Moore: WR95, ADP 288
Since being traded to the Browns in 2022, Cooper has been incredibly consistent. In his first season, he finished with 132 targets, 78 receptions, 1,160 yards, and nine touchdowns. Last year, he finished with 128 targets, 72 receptions, 1,250 yards, and five touchdowns in 15 games. His per-game averages in Cleveland equate to 138 targets, 80 receptions, 1,280 yards, and 7.5 touchdowns. Since 2022, Cooper ranks 13th in targets, 22nd in receptions, eighth in yards, and 11th in touchdowns. Cooper also has the 13th-best full-PPR PPG average among receivers, with at least 15 games played since 2022 at 14.78.
Last season, Cooper finished with a 23.6% target share (22nd highest) and a 42.4% air yards share (fourth highest). His 1,820 air yards were the seventh highest among receivers. He still finished with 841 unrealized air yards, the 10th highest. Cooper averaged 2.35 yards per route run (15th highest), 9.8 yards per target (12th highest), 17.4 yards per reception (third highest), and 2.20 yards per team pass attempt (13th highest).
Fantasy managers are drafting him as the WR25 despite Cooper finishing as the WR13 in 2022 and WR16 in 2023. Fantasy managers are likely concerned about Deshaun Watson; however, in five games where Watson started over 20% of the snaps last season, Cooper averaged 14.8 half-PPR points. Below, you can see Cooper's five-game stretch with Watson under center in 2023.
| Week | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Half-PPR | WR Rank |
| Week 1 | 7 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 5.2 | WR61 |
| Week 2 | 10 | 7 | 90 | 0 | 12.5 | WR32 |
| Week 3 | 8 | 7 | 116 | 1 | 21.1 | WR9 |
| Week 9 | 5 | 5 | 139 | 1 | 22.4 | WR4 |
| Week 10 | 9 | 6 | 98 | 0 | 12.8 | WR20 |
| Average | 7.8 | 5.6 | 96.0 | 0.4 | 14.8 |
During those five weeks with Watson, Cooper averaged 2.79 yards per route run, 12.3 yards per target, 17.1 yards per reception, and 2.89 yards per team pass attempt. Among receivers, he would've ranked sixth in yards per route run, third in yards per target, fourth in yards per reception, and third in yards per team pass attempt.
There's certainly an argument for this being a small sample size, but the results are encouraging nonetheless. From a statistical perspective, his per-game averages would amount to 133 targets, 95 receptions, 1,632 yards, and seven touchdowns over 17 games. His 14.8 half-PPR PPG average would've finished sixth last season. From an efficiency standpoint, Cooper ranks in the top six in several of the most predictive efficiency metrics.
WR Leaders in FPG [2023]
+ among all WRs with a <70% catchable target rate1. Amari Cooper (15.2) 👀
2. DeAndre Hopkins (13.2)
3. Christian Watson (11.3)
4. Marquise Brown (9.6)
5. Gabriel Davis (9.6)— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 29, 2024
There are many young and exciting receivers, which is part of the reason Cooper is being pushed down draft boards, but being able to draft him near the WR30 mark should be considered stealing. He's excelled with multiple different quarterbacks the past two seasons in Cleveland.
The concerns with Cooper, while understandable, should be alleviated based on his performance with Watson last year. If you're still concerned about Watson's shoulder or performance, the Browns signed Jameis Winston, who might be the best backup quarterback in the NFL. When he found himself on the field for the Saints last season, Chris Olave's fantasy production increased over that of starter Derek Carr. Based on his play in the last two seasons, Cooper is a fantastic bet to outplay his current ADP.
Most fantasy managers are likely done with the Jeudy experience, and it’s hard to blame them. After being selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Jeudy has yet to surpass 1,000 yards in any season, although he was on track to do so in 2022. Despite having strong peripherals, he finished his rookie season with a 7.1 half-PPR PPG average. He finished with 113 targets, 52 receptions, 856 yards, and three touchdowns despite catching passes from Drew Lock. He had a 21.2% target share and a 22.7% target rate, which is a strong number for a rookie. He also averaged 1.72 yards per yard route and 16.5 yards per reception. His numbers could’ve looked far better with just average quarterback play. He had 965 unrealized air yards, second most among receivers, and a catchable target rate of 62.8%. That ranked 106th among receivers. That means that of his 113 targets, just 71 were deemed catchable, and he caught 52.
2021 was an injury-plagued season where he was in and out of the lineup and only played 10 games. However, he posted a 19.9% target share and a 24.1% target rate. He also posted a 2.01-yard-per-route run average. Once again, he posted strong peripherals. None of that mattered for fantasy again, as he posted just a 6.9 half-PPR PPG average. His third season was his best. He averaged 6.67 targets, 4.47 receptions, and 64.8 yards per game. Over 17 games, he was on pace for 113 targets, 76 receptions, and 1,102 yards. He had a 20.8% target share and a 23.5% target rate. If nothing else, his target earnings have been very consistent, with target shares around 20% and a target rate around 23%. He had a 2.29-yard-per-route run average and finished as the WR27 with a 10.6 half-PPR PPG average.
Jeudy played 16 games last year and finished with 87 targets, 54 receptions, and 758 yards with Russell Wilson at quarterback. While Wilson’s touchdown numbers look good on paper, he left much to be desired everywhere else. Just 66.7% of Jeudy’s 87 targets were deemed catchable, ranking 70th among receivers. He also had 674 unrealized air yards, the 17th-most among receivers. Still, he posted a 19.6% target share and a 19.3% target rate again. He finished as the WR52 with a 7.2 half-PPR PPG average.
Based on his previous PPG, fantasy managers can draft him (mostly) at his floor. However, Jeudy has yet to receive just average quarterback play. He may not be this year, based on how Watson looked last season. Denver has finished 19th, 24th, 16th (Jeudy’s best season), and 27th in pass attempts. Last year, Cleveland finished fifth. In Watson’s five starts last year, he averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game, but for the season, they averaged 36.7. The loss of star running back Chubb early in the season likely was a big reason for that shift. Chubb is not expected to be ready for the 2024 season.
Jerry Jeudy is now the third option (at worst) in a fast-paced offense.
Deshaun Watson averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game in his full starts last year.
If we give Jeudy an 18% target share, that's 101 targets on 561 attempts.
That's 61 catches on a 60% catch rate.
824 yards…
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 6, 2024
If we assume that Cleveland will average 34 passes per game and that we give Jeudy a 19.5% target share, which would be the lowest of his four years, he'd finish with 113 targets. Using his career averages catching passes from Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and Russell Wilson, he’d finish with 67 receptions and 972 yards. If we give him four touchdowns, he’d have a 9.1 half-PPR PPG average, which would’ve been good for a WR44 finish last season. If he had five touchdowns, his PPG average would jump to 9.4, and six touchdowns would increase it to 9.8, which would have been WR37 last season.
Jeudy isn’t a huge buy by any means. It’s hard to see a ceiling outcome greater than him finishing as a WR3. However, he has a realistic range of outcomes from WR37 to WR60, and given his current price of WR55, he gives fantasy managers a lot of positive surplus value and not much risk. For that reason, Jeudy is a slight buy for fantasy managers.
That brings us to Elijah Moore. The dream of Moore breaking out was crushed long ago, but the trade for Jeudy put an exclamation point on it. Outside of a six-game stretch back in 2021, Moore has been a massive disappointment, and fantasy managers can put to bed the possibility of him being fantasy-relevant this season.
In 2022, he had an 11.7% target share and a 14.1% target rate. His yard per route run average was 0.95. To be fair, Garrett Wilson had become the alpha, and Zach Wilson was atrocious. Nonetheless, those numbers are terrible. He was traded to the Browns in 2023, hoping to become Amari Cooper's No. 2 receiver. While Cleveland gave him every opportunity to do that, running a route on 88.3% of the dropbacks, Moore didn’t hold up his end.
He finished with just a 17.4% target share and was widely inefficient on his targets. He finished with a 1.16-yard per route run average. The quarterback play in Cleveland was a little shaky, but Cooper averaged 2.35 yards per route run, and David Njoku averaged 1.77 yards per route run as a tight end. It’s hard to use the quarterback play as an excuse for such a low YPRR since it didn't stop Cooper and Njoku.
Moore is now the fourth, maybe even fifth, option on the target hierarchy in Cleveland. He’s behind Cooper, Jeudy, and Njoku without question. That puts him, at best, No. 4. However, the team drafted Cedric Tillman in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and it's certainly possible Tillman could leap-frog Moore as the No. 3 receiver, especially if they want to be able to move Cooper around more.
Tillman has the size to play “X” receiver, a role pre-dominantly occupied by Cooper. If they want to move Cooper off the line of scrimmage, instead of Moore being the third receiver in 11-personnel sets, they could opt to use Tillman, who would then become the “X”. Cooper and Jeudy would then operate as the flanker, and slot receivers, off the line of scrimmage. In either case, Moore needs an injury to have a chance at being fantasy-relevant, and even if that were to happen, we’re still left with the question of whether it would even matter. He was in a full-time role last year and averaged just 6.4 half-PPR PPG. For that reason, Moore is a sell.
Verdict: Buy Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy, Sell Elijah Moore
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
David Njoku: TE10, ADP 85
Njoku had a breakout season last year. He finished as the TE6 with a 10.0 half-PPR PPG average and set career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. However, it wasn’t all smooth sailing. The Browns started four different quarterbacks with Njoku in the lineup: DeShaun Watson, P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Joe Flacco.
| QB | Target Share | Target Rate | TPG | RPG | RePG | AYPG | YPRR | YPT | YPR | Half-PPR PPG | Expected Half-PPR PPG |
| Just Watson (5) | 15% | 17% | 5 | 4 | 35.2 | 7.2 | 1.23 | 7.04 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 8.3 |
| Just Flacco (6) | 22.10% | 29% | 9.3 | 6.1 | 80.5 | 71.5 | 2.49 | 8.63 | 13.05 | 15 | 17.5 |
| 2 Other Guys (6) | 22.30% | 26% | 8.3 | 5.1 | 52.7 | 41.6 | 1.61 | 6.32 | 10.19 | 8.9 | 15.6 |
| Non-Watson (12) | 22.20% | 27% | 8.8 | 5.6 | 66.6 | 56.6 | 2.05 | 7.54 | 11.75 | 11.9 | 16.5 |
| Everyone (17) | 20.30% | 25% | 7.7 | 5.1 | 57.4 | 42 | 1.83 | 7.44 | 11.08 | 10.3 | 14.1 |
As you can see from the table, Njoku was unstoppable with Flacco under center. He averaged 15.0 half-PPR PPG, and his expected PPG average was 17.5. His numbers across the board, volume-wise and efficiency-wise, were light years better than what Njoku did with Watson. His yard-per-route run average was twice as high as Flacco's compared to Watson, as was his half-PPR PPG average.
Even in the six games Njoku caught passes from Walker and Thompson-Robinson, he was significantly better than with Watson. He received more volume, three targets more per game, and averaged a better yard-per-route run average and a better half-PPR PPG average. The splits are concerning.
First downs per route run leaders (TEs, 2023)
Notable lower finishes:
22nd - David Njoku [.071]
25th - Dalton Kincaid [.068]
33rd - Luke Musgrave [.056] pic.twitter.com/XCf8t7V6Wh— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 15, 2024
Njoku was “the” TE1 with Joe Flacco. He was a backend TE1 with Thompson-Robinson and Walker. He was a backend TE2 with Watson. The differences are stark. However, as noted above with Cooper, he did excellently with Watson under center, so we can’t just write it off as a “Watson problem.” It’s a Watson and Njoku problem, and the bigger issue with that is that Watson is the starter, and those backups who helped Njoku dominate last season have been replaced.
Jameis Winston is no slouch when it comes to backup quarterbacks, but the point is, we don’t know what to expect from him in terms of which players he’ll favor more. Based on last season, we know that Flacco and the two others favored Njoku.
Njoku’s quarterback splits from last year put fantasy managers in a tough spot this year. Given those concerns, Njoku is a sell. The addition of Jeudy could somewhat impact his target share, especially with Watson under center, who targeted the Cleveland receivers far more than he did Njoku. If fantasy managers could not land one of the bigger named tight ends, instead of opting for Njoku, I’d rather wait two more rounds and select Dallas Goedert or four rounds and Pat Freiermuth.
Verdict: Sell David Njoku
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