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We are officially out of dynasty rookie season and into draft season. With camp reports dominating NFL social media, it’s time to reflect on the value of rookies.
The Average draft position (ADP) for rookie drafts took months to settle in place, but has it held? In this article, I am going to revisit the rookie draft ADP. After comparing redraft leagues with the off-season dynasty market, I will conclude whether a player is a “cash out” or a “hold.”
I use "cash out" to describe selling high and capitalizing on training camp trends. In contrast, I use "hold" for players who are currently undervalued and are not worth moving. My name is Ellis Johnson, and I have been writing for RotoBaller for six years. Thank you for checking out my work!
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Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, JAX)
In May, Thomas was drafted as the sixth rookie overall. However, his current redraft rookie ADP is 13. As soon as he was drafted to the Jaguars it was clear he was more of a project player. Especially after they brought in Gabe Davis, the path to consistent targets seemed clouded.
So far in camp, Thomas has earned the praise of coaches but still finds himself fourth on the pass-catching list behind Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Davis. With his athletic attributes, he could start pushing his way to more snaps as the season goes on, however, it’s clear fantasy managers aren’t too confident in that happening in his first year.
Since the fantasy community is very reactionary, if a player like Keon Coleman produces in his first season, he will be valued ahead of Thomas even if he was viewed as an inferior prospect. As a result, two months after rookies drafts it appears that Thomas may already be overtaken by Ladd McConkey and Coleman’s dynasty value heading into 2024.
I believe managers are stuck holding Thomas for the long run. His value will likely stay unchanged until he carves out a larger role in this offense, which may not happen until his second year.
Heard the people were looking for @BrianThomas_11 highlights 👀@Dream_Finders | #DUUUVAL
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) August 2, 2024
Blake Corum (RB, LAR)
Despite nothing unexpected happening to either the depth chart or camp reports, Corum is currently the 11th rookie selected in redraft leagues. Considering his rookie draft ADP was at 16, he has seen an increase in value in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Again, he has done this without any key roster changes or viral camp highlights. Everything out of camp is positive for the rookie RB, but he is still behind Kyren Williams. It is important to recognize that the Rams have a Week Six Bye, which leaves 11 straight games to end the season. That’s a tough stretch for any back to stay healthy, let alone Williams, who has had a history of injuries. This may open the door for Corum to see starter touches for at least a couple of weeks this season.
So far Corum was an excellent selection in your rookie drafts. Not only does he hold the same long-term outlook, but he also has increased value for 2024. As a result, Corum fits the criteria as a "cash out" candidate if you can upgrade to locked-in starting back in 2024. If you decide to hold him, you are dancing with the devil if Kyren Williams builds on his tremendous 2023 season and pushes Corum into true “backup” territory.
This Blake Corum jump is FILTHY. pic.twitter.com/h0MRQLrTFc
— College Football Alerts (@CFBAlerts_) July 21, 2024
Ricky Pearsall (WR, SF)
To the detriment of the 49ers, Pearsall had a great offseason. In particular, the drama surrounding star WR Brandon Aiyuk leaves a clear path for Pearsall. After Aiyuk formally requested a trade, there have been rumours of him holding out.
As a result, Pearsall's rookie draft ADP of WR8 and the 13th overall rookie continues to be reasonable. What worries me is that the Aiyuk drama should have created a substantial bump in Pearsall's value. However, his redraft ADP has barely moved this offseason. Plus, the 49ers have a history of signing players right before the season starts.
Regardless of what you think of the Aiyuk rumors, the fact that his value has remained relatively stationary is a little concerning. I would capitalize on the Aiyuk rumors and “cash out," in case the 49ers manage to sign Aiyuk to a multi-year deal, which would suddenly tank Pearsall's value.
Recent reports make it sound like an Aiyuk trade is inevitable, officially starting an unstoppable hype train for Pearsall. However, I would still shop him around to see what you could get. If you can acquire a future first-round pick for Pearsall (who you probably got in the second round), that's a great profit for someone who is in a crowded offense. As for a player to target, someone like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has shown us glimpses and has a clear path to more work, would be worth kicking the tires on.
"I don't like to compliment rookies too much, but I like his game."
Isaac Yiadom couldn't help but tip his hat to Ricky Pearsall 😂 pic.twitter.com/pjmG38BtOG
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) August 2, 2024
Xavier Legette (WR, CAR)
Legette was drafted as the WR9 and 14th overall player in rookie drafts. The fifth-year surprise college breakout was a first-round selection by the Panthers, who traded up for him. Still, his question marks as a prospect has kept him relatively cheap in rookie drafts.
Since the draft, Legette has suffered a minor hamstring injury and has been critiqued by the coaches on his route running. However, he has received glowing praise for his athletic ability. He also has created a highlight reel of hilarious interview moments.
The Panthers have turned the page on their horrific 2023 campaign, with multiple players flashing in camp. Specifically, both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo have been camp standouts. Although Johnson was always expected to take over as the top target, Mingo’s surprise improvement has pushed Legette further down the depth chart.
Legette is currently selected as the WR64 and 153rd player in redraft leagues. As a result, much like Brian Thomas Jr., you are probably stuck holding for the time being. Ideally, he will have some flashes this season and see an increased role in his second season.
Xavier Legette is a national treasure 😂#KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/1mukK0q8xf
— =͟͟͞Blande (@JustBlande) August 1, 2024
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