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If you draft players who end up producing more value than you had to spend on them in draft capital, you've taken the first step toward winning your fantasy football league.
Sure, working the waiver wire and making trades can help your team throughout the season, but if you draft poorly - you are setting yourself up for an uphill battle that will be hard to overcome.
With the receiver position dominating the early rounds of drafts the Zero Running Back strategy has become all the rage. If you're willing to wait until the middle and late rounds for running backs, then you've come to the right place. Here are five running backs who I think can outperform their ADP in this coming 2024 fantasy football season.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
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- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
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David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
Consensus ADP: 61
Perhaps this is me going back to the well on a pick that served me well last season, but why invest a first or second-round pick in Jahmyr Gibbs when you can Montgomery in the fifth or sixth round and somewhere between 75-95% of the production of Gibbs.
What makes us think that anything is going to change with how these backs were used in tandem by Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson last season?
Gibbs is obviously the more dynamic runner and receiver, but by hammering Montgomery between the tackles 15 times per game, Detroit was able to keep Gibbs healthy for most of the season and into the playoffs where the Lions had the Niners on the ropes going into the second half of the NFC title game.
Monty finished with 13 rushing touchdowns last season and had the fifth-most attempts of any back from inside the 10-yard line. He enjoyed his most efficient season as a runner, averaging 4.6 yards per carry behind a very good Detroit front.
Lions RB David Montgomery is going to be a BEAST this season 😤
You might be a fantasy football league winner if you leave your draft with him 👀 especially if Jahymr Gibbs is expected to miss extended time‼️
— Last Take™ (@TheRealLastTake) August 13, 2024
His ADP is slowly creeping up since Gibbs suffered a hamstring injury this preseason. But even if Gibbs is fine for Week One and doesn't miss time, Monty has a clearly defined role on an elite offense and could be ready for another top-ten finish at the position. He's about as safe of a pick as you make in this range in my opinion.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Consensus ADP: 74
Like Montgomery, Harris is another back who does most of his damage between the tackles as part of a committee with Jaylen Warren being the change-of-pace back who has joined Harris to make a pretty formidable duo in Pittsburgh.
Harris's ADP is slowly creeping up there, too, especially since Jaylen Warren tweaked a hamstring last weekend and it sounds as if he's now in jeopardy of missing the start of the season.
Warren is the more trendy pick of the two Pittsburgh backs that many fantasy analysts are enamored with because of his receiving upside and explosiveness. And sure - you can get Warren about 12-15 picks later in the draft, too.
But Harris is the back I want from the Steelers this season now that they are going to have Arthur Smith calling the offense. A lot of Harris's production will depend on how well the Steelers can move the ball and sustain drives this season, but we certainly know what type of identity they want to take on as they were a run-first team last season and brought in a run-first OC in Smith as well.
Smith pounded the rock with Derrick Henry in Tennessee and was often criticized in Atlanta for giving Tyler Allgeier nearly as many touches as Bijan Robinson - who fantasy managers badly wanted to be used as a bell-cow back. If Smith has a type of back he prefers - it's the big back that he can feed 20 touches to and not the smaller scat-back types.
Regardless of Warren's hamstring, I expect Harris to maintain the lead back role for the Steelers and handle 65% of the touches AND the goal line work. With an improved offensive line and hopefully a more competent QB under center, we should see Harris and this running game have a big year in 2024.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Consensus ADP: 96
The Commanders have a lot of fantasy appeal for a team that finished with one of the worst records in the NFL last season. This offense should be improved with Jayden Daniels under center and Kliff Kingsbury calling the plays and we can get important pieces of this Washington attack quite cheaply at various points in the draft.
Robinson Jr. is going to have to split touches with Austin Ekeler - who was brought in to replace Antonio Gibson as the pass-catching back. But Ekeler is already 29 years old, coming off his worst season as a pro, and has a lot of mileage on his wheels when compared to the 25-year-old Robinson. Ekeler certainly didn't look like his usual self for much of the 2023 season. While he's surely going to handle a handful of carries to spell Robinson and be the third-down back, I'm not that convinced that he eats into Robinson's workload any more than Gibson ever did.
Brian Robinson looks faster than last year.
— Eric Sully (@CommandersRealm) August 17, 2024
Robinson Jr. improved his 3.9 YPC average from his rookie season to 4.1 last year when he rushed for nearly the same amount of yards on 27 fewer carries. The other big difference was that BR3 was much more involved in the passing game, making 36 receptions for another 368 yards giving him a total of 1101 yards from scrimmage in 15 games played.
Daniels might vulture a few touchdowns, but Robinson Jr. looks poised for a big season if he can stay healthy. He's the Washington back I want on my roster, not the aging Ekeler who is less likely to have a consistent role.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Consensus ADP: 117
After backing the bigger back with a more traditional role of running between the tackles for each of my first three picks, I am going to buck that trend by siding with the 5'9" Chase Brown who profiles as the change-of-pace back for the Bengals this season in a timeshare with Zack Moss.
While I do think Moss will start the year with more touches, it's Brown who is going to get some high-value touches in the passing game and has shown the ability to create big plays with his speed and quickness. Moss had a solid 2023 campaign with the Colts but has never handled more than 210 touches in a season.
Joe Mixon dominated the touches in Cincinnati last season, but Moss isn't likely to inherit all of those touches - especially the passing down work. If we expect this Cincinnati offense to score a lot of points and move the ball up and down the field, then we should expect Chase Brown to have a lot of opportunities to make plays and eat up big chunks of yardage when he's in open space.
Brown has been a fairly trendy pick over the last few weeks, but our Rotoballer rankings still have him as a value even at his latest ADP of 117. If he and Moss even up in a 50/50 split with touches, I like Brown's chances of being the more productive back for fantasy purposes on a per-touch basis.
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals
Consensus ADP: 126
Trey Benson is just one of several rookie running backs who I have been targeting in the later rounds. Benson was a wrecking ball and Florida State, barrelling over defenders in college but got everyone's attention with his sneaky good speed for his size when he ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine.
Trey Benson is a battering ram pic.twitter.com/8ird2aczfA
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) August 18, 2024
While James Conner is back for his fourth season with the Cardinals as the incumbent starter, let's not forget that he's now 29 years old and he's missed four games in each of his last two seasons. Conner is an incredibly likable player and as made a nice career for himself with somewhat limited athleticism. He is a hard runner and a decent receiver, but Benson was not taken in the third round to sit on the sidelines and watch all season. He's as big and tough as Conner with more speed and fresher legs.
While Benson won't likely work in for passing downs (that's likely Michael Carter or Emari Demercado), he could start the season by spelling Conner every few series and if he plays well, force the issue to where it becomes a time-share. And if Conner goes down with an injury, Benson would step into a 15-20 touch role. He's more than just a handcuff, Benson is talented enough to eventually win this job outright.
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