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I don't usually get too involved with college football futures bets, but the massive realignment that happened just over a month ago offers a chance to make some serious coin if you know where to look. As per usual, the college football blue bloods have high win totals. That said, the SEC and Big Ten (18) got much stronger. The Big 12 (14) got more...interesting, for lack of a better word.
It is critical to look at the revamped schedule when analyzing these bets. You know Vegas has. Do your research as well. Take the power back! An informed bettor is Vegas's worst nightmare. We can work together to make that happen! The smartest money isn't always chasing the well-known teams. Looking at non-power schools that got power transfers can seriously alter the future of those smaller school teams.
I will highlight my best over/under college football futures bets for regular season win totals in 2024. I will also include an honorable mention section and a few long shots that I would throw a small wager on. Who knows...we may even throw in a couple of bets to make the playoffs!
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College Football Futures - Best Over/Under Win Total Bets
Arizona over 7.5 wins (EVEN):
Schedule: vs. New Mexico, vs. Northern Arizona, at Kansas State, at Utah, vs. Texas Tech, at BYU, vs. Colorado, vs. West Virginia, at Central Florida, vs. Houston, at TCU, vs. Arizona State
? You won't BELIEVE what Arizona Star Players Noah Fifita & Tetairoa McMillan are using their NIL Money for...
On Saturday, the duo announced that they would return to Arizona next season, which shocked MANY in the sport
Their Head Coach, Jedd Fisch, had just left for the… pic.twitter.com/cdshR0cryO
— Blue Bloods Bias (@bluebloodsbias) January 22, 2024
Not only did the dynamic duo stay in Tucson, but they did this. The Wildcats should start 2-0 before tough trips to the Little Apple and SLC. Even if Arizona loses both, it should beat TT, BYU, UCF, Houston, TCU, and little brother. That's eight wins. Score!
Iowa State over 7.5 wins (-120):
Schedule: vs. North Dakota, at Iowa, vs. Arkansas State, at Houston, vs. Baylor, at West Virginia, vs. Central Florida, vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas, vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, vs. Kansas State
The Cyclones draw the easy team from my home state, then get the CyHawk game. That's a winnable game. They should win the next two, Cincinnati, UCF, and Texas Tech at home. That's six wins without the CyHawk.
That means the Cyclones only need two wins against Baylor, Iowa, Kansas, Utah, West Virginia, and Farmageddon. I like those odds. Continuity is king in college football right now and the Cyclones return nine of 11 offensive starters.
Memphis over 9.5 wins (+125):
Schedule: vs. North Alabama, vs. Troy, at Florida State, at Navy, vs. Middle Tennessee State, at South Florida, vs. North Texas, vs. Charlotte, at UTSA, vs. Rice, vs. UAB, at Tulane
This one hinges on whether you think it can win on a trip to Tallahassee on September 14. The toughest games for the Tigers are all on the road -- they play at UTSA, Tulane, and South Florida. Assuming they lose to the Seminoles, Memphis needs to win two of those three games.
With Seth Henigan and Roc Taylor both back, it is certainly possible. If Memphis manages to beat the Seminoles, you're playing with house money before September is even over.
FBS Program of the day.
MEMPHIS TIGERS
- Coming off a GREAT 2023 MASSIVE BOWL WIN
- I expect Seth Henigan to be one of if not the best G5 QB
- LOADING up in the portal
- Every game is winnable even @ FSUI am EXTREMELY high on Memphis and pick them to be in the CFP ??? pic.twitter.com/mddq7MmOso
— College Football Daily (@CFBalldaily) February 8, 2024
North Carolina over 7.5 wins (-130):
Schedule: at Minnesota, vs. Charlotte, vs. North Carolina Central, vs. James Madison, at Duke, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Georgia Tech, at Virginia, at Florida State, vs. Wake Forest, at Boston College, vs. North Carolina State
Is Max Johnson that dude? I have my doubts, but Omarion Hampton is. The offense should at least be more efficient this year. The early schedule is promising for the Tar Heels. They should start the season 6-0 before the meeting with Georgia Tech, which in itself is a winnable home game.
1. Omarion Hampton
The best RB in the league and one of the best in the country resides in Chapel Hill.
And, with questions still swirling at QB, Hampton should provide much-needed reliability and quality on offense from the jump.
Expect him to have a BIG season. pic.twitter.com/ojRUBOQ1zD
— Jacob Turner (@JacobTurnerTHI) August 19, 2024
Virginia, Wake, and Boston College are all winnable games after that. Consider it insurance. The schedule stacks up for North Carolina to win 10 games in a best-case scenario -- it dodges Clemson, SMU, and Miami. Even if it loses to James Madison or Pitt, eight wins still seem likely.
Virginia Tech over 8.5 wins (+120):
Schedule: at Vanderbilt, vs. Marshall, at Old Dominion, vs. Rutgers, at Miami (FL), at Stanford, vs. Boston College, vs. Georgia Tech, at Syracuse, vs. Clemson, at Duke, vs. Virginia
Call me wild, but I see a huge chance for 10 wins here. The Hokies should be undefeated when they head to South Beach. Clemson and Georgia Tech are tougher games, but they are both at home. Even if they drop both of those and lose at Miami, that is still nine wins. I like getting better than even money here.
2023 Stats:
2084 Passing Yards ?
818 Rushing Yards ?
22 Total TDs ?Virginia Tech looks to make an ACC title run in 2024 @229Hokies
Drone strikes from the Commonwealth Cup ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/jVwOf3hVFr
— 229 Sports (@229Sports_) January 18, 2024
USC over 7.5 wins (-115):
Schedule: vs. LSU, vs. Utah State, at Michigan, vs. Wisconsin, at Minnesota, vs. Penn State, at Maryland, vs. Rutgers, at Washington, vs. Nebraska, at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame
There are a lot of names on the schedule, but how good are Michigan and Washington going to be? Both are on the road, but I'll say the Trojans can get at least one of those. We'll go ahead and count LSU as a loss. Probably Penn State, too, but that's a home game. I see sure wins against Utah State, Minnesota, Maryland, Rutgers, and UCLA.
Add in probable wins against Wisconsin and Nebraska at home, and all they have to do is beat either Notre Dame, Michigan, or Washington. That feels doable. I'll put it this way: if Lincoln Riley doesn't win eight games with this schedule, some boosters are going to be calling for his head.
College Football Futures - Over/Under Win Total Bets Still Worth Taking
Arkansas under 4.5 wins (-120):
Schedule: vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, at Oklahoma State, vs. UAB, at Auburn, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Tennessee, vs. LSU, at Mississippi State, vs. Mississippi, vs. Texas, vs. Louisiana Tech, at Missouri
Gone are KJ Jefferson and Raheim Morris. Replacing them are Taylen Green (Boise State) and Ja'Quinden Jackson (Utah/Texas). As good as Green and Jackson might be, this is still a step down in both positions from last year. On top of that, this schedule is a bear.
UAPB and Louisiana Tech are the only sure wins. UAB is a solid team, but the Piggies should win that. That means they need two wins against the rest of the SEC. Even though they dodge Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia, the Razorbacks still play seven ranked teams. They will likely lose all seven.
Boise State over 9.5 wins (EVEN):
Schedule: at Georgia Southern, at Oregon, vs. Portland State, vs. Washington State, vs. Utah State, at Hawaii, at UNLV, vs. San Diego State, vs. Nevada, at San Jose State, at Wyoming, vs. Oregon State
Prospects like Malachi Nelson just don't transfer to schools like Boise State. It doesn't happen. Well...it did...and it could make us look like geniuses taking this bet. The two Pac-12 teams are shadows of last year's teams. Georgia Southern is still a strong team, but even if the Broncos start 0-2, they could run the table afterward.
Nelson is unproven, but I'm just as excited about the transfer of former Indiana receiver Cam Camper. Ashton Jeanty has proven that he can do it all. This schedule looks good for Boise State. The only sure loss is at The Zoo.
Georgia under 10.5 wins (EVEN):
Schedule: vs. Clemson, vs. Tennessee Tech, at Kentucky, at Alabama, vs. Auburn, vs. Mississippi State, at Texas, vs. Florida, at Mississippi, vs. Tennessee, vs. Massachusetts, vs. Georgia Tech
The Bulldogs play Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas -- three of the top six teams in the AP Poll -- all in true road games. Are they winning two of those games? They would have to for them to hit the over on this bet. Georgia is still really good, but I see the Bulldogs making the playoffs as a three-loss team. Such is life in the 2024 SEC.
Kansas over 8.5 wins (+125):
Schedule: vs. Lindenwood, at Illinois, vs. UNLV, at West Virginia, vs. TCU, at Arizona State, vs. Houston, at Kansas State, vs. Iowa State, at BYU, vs. Colorado, at Baylor
Kansas: 8 wins
This is a win total that I would absolutely be locking up…if it weren’t for Jalon Daniels back. Daniels is an exceptional talent but that back injury has been lingering for a couple seasons and i’m not sure i can trust him to be healthy
Win total play: Lean O8 pic.twitter.com/c8hrKbEmmk
— Eli Halverson (@eli_halverson2) August 6, 2024
This bet all hinges on Jalon Daniels since Jason Bean isn't around to guide the ship if he goes down again. Cole Ballard played well sparingly last year, but it's not the same as having a veteran like Bean come in.
The schedule lines up for Kansas since it dodges both Arizona and Utah and gets Colorado at home. It will need to win two of the five games between West Virginia, the Sunflower Showdown, Iowa State, Colorado, and Baylor. If Daniels stays healthy, that's not only possible...it's likely.
Michigan under 8.5 wins (+115):
Schedule: vs. Fresno State, vs. Texas, vs. Arkansas State, vs. USC, vs. Minnesota, at Washington, at Illinois, vs. Michigan State, vs. Oregon, at Indiana, vs. Northwestern, at Ohio State
I believe in Sherrone Moore but look at that schedule. Texas and USC in the first month? Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State later? How many of those games are the Wolverines winning? One? Two if Ohio State has players sit out for the playoff? I only count six sure wins.
That means Michigan has to win three against Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon, Michigan State, and Ohio State. It might do it if Texas and USC weren't in September. Even though both games are home games, it's tough to break in a new quarterback against teams like those.
According to Chris Balas a current Michigan football coach “deleted several texts between him and Stalions”
Do they still think he was a lone wolf? pic.twitter.com/m5aom1q8c3
— Moneybagg (@MoneybaggH0E) July 29, 2024
Then there's still the little Connor Stalions fiasco. Despite Michigan's best efforts (including Jim Harbaugh bolting back to the NFL), it doesn't look like this is going away and it will likely erupt sometime in the middle of the season. Take the plus money on a tumultuous season in Ann Arbor.
Missouri over 9.5 wins (+115):
Schedule: vs. Murray State, vs. Buffalo, vs. Boston College, vs. Vanderbilt, at Texas A&M, at Massachusetts, vs. Auburn, at Alabama, vs. Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, vs. Arkansas
All that Missouri needs to win this bet is a win against one of the three ranked teams they play. A&M may not be ranked by the time it plays and Faurot Field is a notorious house of horrors for Oklahoma. The Tigers have the easiest SEC schedule out there. I'll be shocked if they don't win 10 games.
SMU over 8.5 wins (+105):
Schedule: at Nevada, vs. Houston Christian, vs. BYU, vs. TCU, vs. Florida State, at Louisville, at Stanford, at Duke, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Boston College, at Virginia, vs. California
Both BYU and TCU are young, unproven teams. Florida State follows at home. SMU should start the season 4-1 or 3-2 at worst. All of the final seven games are winnable with Louisville the only major test.
Even if it starts 3-2 and loses to the Cardinals, it still wins nine. With Preston Stone and Jaylan Knighton in Year 2 of this system, SMU's stock is on the rise. It is a player in the ACC this year.
Troy under 6.5 wins (-120):
Schedule: vs. Nevada, at Memphis, at Iowa, vs. Florida A&M, vs. Louisiana-Monroe, vs. Texas State, at South Alabama, at Arkansas State, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Georgia Southern, at Louisiana, vs. Southern Mississippi
Arkansas State, ULM, FAMU, and Southern Miss are the only sure wins on the schedule. It'll likely beat Nevada in the opener, but where are the other two wins coming from? Texas State added Jordan McCloud and CCU still looks strong. Georgia Southern is a possibility without Marcus Carroll, but that game is in Statesboro.
This offense lost Gunnar Watson, who threw for 3.569 yards last year. Kimani Vidal, arguably the best player in school history, is in the NFL. Troy didn't get any impact transfers on offense while many of its opponents did. The under feels pretty safe.
UAB over 6.5 wins (+120):
Schedule: vs. Alcorn State, at Louisiana-Monroe, at Arkansas, vs. Navy, vs. Tulane, at Army, at South Florida, vs. Tulsa, vs. Connecticut, at Memphis, vs. Rice, at Charlotte
I count five sure wins (Alcorn, ULM, Tulsa, UConn, and Charlotte) and that's not even including the service academies. If it can take both of those, it's a win already. If it only takes one, I could still see the Blazers beating Rice to get that seventh win. Getting plus money on this is a gift.
UTSA over 8.5 wins (+105):
Schedule: vs. Kennesaw State, at Texas State, at Texas, vs. Houston Christian, at East Carolina, at Rice, vs. Florida Atlantic, at Tulsa, vs. Memphis, vs. North Texas, vs. Temple, at Army
UTSA lost the best QB in school history in Frank Harris, but UCLA transfer Owen McCown has shown flashes of brilliance. De'Corian Clark, if he can stay healthy, could be as good as Zakhari Franklin was. Kevorian Barnes is a good back in this system and Oscar Cardenas is a very underrated tight end. This offense still has weapons and the defense is still solid.
UTSA won eight games last year. The loss to Army is the one it needs to gain back this year to get to nine. Looking at the schedule, the Roadrunners should start 7-1 with a loss to Texas. The schedule gets tougher at the end, but they get both Memphis and North Texas at home. Temple is a sure win and the end in West Point is winnable.
I like the chances of them winning two of those last four games.
Washington over 6.5 wins (-105):
Schedule: vs. Weber State, vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. Washington State, vs. Northwestern, at Rutgers, vs. Michigan, at Iowa, at Indiana, vs. USC, at Penn State, vs. UCLA, at Oregon
Is Washington going to take a step back? Sure. It only has one starter from last year on offense. It reloaded through the portal with Jeremiah Hunter from Cal and Will Rogers (yes...that Will Rogers) from Mississippi State. Jonah Coleman followed Jedd Fisch to Seattle. Is Washington going to lose seven games? I doubt it.
The Huskies don't leave Washington until the end of September and should be 5-0 when they welcome Michigan on October 5. That could be a winnable game. I'll say that Washington wins at least two of the games against the pool of Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, and UCLA. That gets us the win.
College Football Futures - Over/Under Win Total Best Of The Rest
Baylor over 5.5 wins (-105):
Schedule: vs. Tarleton State, at Utah, vs. Air Force, at Colorado, vs. BYU, at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. TCU, at West Virginia, at Houston, vs. Kansas
This is not an easy schedule, but I like what the Bears have going on down in Waco. Monaray Baldwin is a world-class sprinter with good hands. Toledo import Dequan Finn has an underrated arm. Oklahoma State import Dominic Richardson will be the starting back with the dangerous Richard Reese right behind him.
Taking a look at the schedule, Tarleton, TCU, Air Force, and BYU should be four wins. Games in Boulder, Houston, and Lubbock are tough but winnable. They have to get at least one of those along with one from Oklahoma State or Kansas at home. I can see this offense pulling it off.
James Madison over 8.5 wins (+130):
Schedule: at Charlotte, vs. Gardner-Webb, at North Carolina, vs. Ball State, at Louisiana-Monroe, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Georgia Southern, vs. Southern Mississippi, vs. Georgia State, at Old Dominion, at Appalachian State, vs. Marshall
The Dukes brought in former Washington quarterback Dylan Morris along with former North Texas workhorse Ayo Adeyi. They added San Diego State's Brionne Penny to beef up the receiver corps. It's going to be tough to replace Jordan McCloud and Elijah Sarratt, but Adeyi is at least as good as Kaelon Black.
Road games against Old Dominion, North Carolina, and App State are the toughest part of the schedule. They can lose all three and still hit this bet. It feels like the Dukes will be favorites in the other nine games, so I like getting plus money on this.
Kansas State under 9.5 wins (-145):
Schedule: vs. Tennessee-Martin, at Tulane, vs. Arizona, at BYU, vs. Oklahoma State, at Colorado, at West Virginia, vs. Kansas, at Houston, vs. Arizona State, vs. Cincinnati, at Iowa State
I see six sure wins. K-State would need to win four of Arizona, Oklahoma State, Colorado, West Virginia, Kansas, and Farmageddon. WVU, Farmageddon, and Colorado are all on the road. Forget assuming it wins one of those...I think it needs two.
Arizona, Kansas, and OSU at home are all games it could lose. If you believe that Avery Johnson is that dude, bet the over. All I see is visions of Abu Sama III trampling the defense in a blizzard. That is one of the lingering images of 2023.
Love it! Abu Sama III , freshman running back for Iowa State has 276 rush yards on 15 carries, including TD runs of 60, 71, and 77 yards tonight in the snow vs Kansas State ( 5 minutes left in the game ) pic.twitter.com/XKbgINPUgz
— robert smith (@Robert26Smith) November 26, 2023
Liberty over 10.5 wins (-150)
Schedule: vs. Campbell, at New Mexico State, vs. UTEP, vs. East Carolina, at Appalachian State, vs. Florida International, at Kennesaw State, vs. Jacksonville State, at Middle Tennessee State, at Massachusetts, vs. Western Kentucky, at Sam Houston
Kaidon Salter is still the best player in the conference and the Flames are mostly intact from a Fiesta Bowl berth in which they got slaughtered by Oregon. The Flames are primed to test the playoff in their first year.
Who is going to beat this team? App State in Boone is going to be tough, but it's winnable. I guess it depends on just how good TJ Finley is at Western Kentucky after stops at LSU, Auburn, and Texas State. I would be higher on this bet if the juice weren't so high.
Miami (OH) under 7.5 wins (EVEN)
Schedule: at Northwestern, vs. Cincinnati, at Notre Dame, vs. Massachusetts, at Toledo, at Eastern Michigan, vs. Ohio, vs. Central Michigan, at Ball State, vs. Kent State, vs. Northern Illinois, at Bowling Green
Hear me out...what if Brett Gabbert gets hurt again? It has happened in both of the last two seasons. Henry Hesson was a decent backup last year, but he's not Gabbert. This offense hinges on Gabbert's ability to stretch the field and throw on the run. Is that even there anymore?
The Redhawks open with three physical teams. Maybe they win one of those (they beat Cincy last year and toppled Northwestern in 2022). Their record after those three games matters less than the health of Gabbert. If Gabbert makes it out alive, UMass, Ohio, Central, Ball State, and Kent State are games they should win.
If they start 0-3, who are the other two wins? Eastern loaded up on NC State castoffs. NIU and Bowling Green are both good enough to win the conference. So is Toledo. It could be an uphill battle for the Redhawks even if Gabbert is healthy.
Mississippi State over 3.5 wins (-180)
Schedule: vs. Eastern Kentucky, at Arizona State, vs. Toledo, vs. Florida, at Texas, at Georgia, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Arkansas, vs. Massachusetts, at Tennessee, vs. Missouri, at Mississippi
The juice sucks, but all the Bulldogs have to do is win all of their OOC games. The toughest one is Toledo. This is easy money. I know the Bulldogs are a far cry from last year's team, but Blake Shapen was decent at Baylor and UTEP transfer Kelly Akharaiyi is a very underrated receiver.
On top of that, Jeff Lebby is often considered an offensive genius. I find it hard to believe that the Bulldogs go winless in the SEC.
Nevada over 2.5 wins (+105)
Schedule: vs. SMU, at Troy, vs. Georgia Southern, at Minnesota, vs. Eastern Washington, at San Jose State, vs. Oregon State, vs. Fresno State, at Hawaii, vs. Colorado State, at Boise State, vs. Air Force, at UNLV
The Pack likely isn't getting any September wins (though Minnesota looks a lot worse than we think). EWU poached Texas Tech a few years back. However, it gets easier in MWC play. San Jose State looks primed to finish at the bottom of the conference after a good run. Oregon State has a fraction of the team returning.
While I don't see any sure wins on the schedule, Nevada did enough in the portal (WR Cortez Braham Jr. from West Virginia, RB Savion Red from Texas, QB Chubba Purdy from Nebraska) to win three of the toss-ups against Air Force, UNLV, EWU, SJSU, and Oregon State.
Notre Dame under 10.5 wins (-135)
Schedule: at Texas A&M, vs. Northern Illinois, at Purdue, vs. Louisville, vs. Stanford, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Navy, vs. Florida State, vs. Virginia, vs. Army, at USC
Imagine your team has Notre Dame’s 2024 football schedule..
Ya’ll making the CFP?? pic.twitter.com/eSaxLOUXRW
— CFB MZ ? (@CFB_Memezone) August 10, 2024
The Irish play just three road games all season. Two of them are in the first three weeks! Three of these are at neutral sites. That is likely what is driving the 10-win narrative for the Irish. If they lose at both USC and A&M (both are true road games), this bet hits. I'm comfortable with that.
Ohio under 6.5 wins (-170)
Schedule: at Syracuse, vs. South Alabama, vs. Morgan State, at Kentucky, vs. Akron, at Central Michigan, at Miami (OH), vs. Buffalo, at Kent State, vs. Eastern Michigan, at Toledo, vs. Ball State
I see three sure wins (Morgan, Ball State, Kent) and three toss-ups (Akron, Central, Buffalo). The depleted Bobcats lost Sieh Bangura and Kurtis Rourke and don't have proven replacements. They aren't toppling the 'Cuse, USA, or Kentucky. Eastern, Toledo, and Miami-Ohio are all better on paper. I hate the juice, but man...Ohio might only win five games.
Oregon over 10.5 wins (-110)
Schedule: vs. Idaho, vs. Boise State, at Oregon State, at UCLA, vs. Michigan State, vs. Ohio State, at Purdue, vs. Illinois, at Michigan, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington
I'm not as locked into this bet as I am others. The Ducks make trips to the Midwest in November, which could be cold. The game at Ross-Ade in October could be an interesting one. Overall, the Ducks miss Penn State and get the Buckeyes at home. Those are the two main threats to Oregon in this conference.
Michigan and Washington are shadows of last year's teams and the Civil War doesn't mean what it used to. Things are shaping up for Duck season in the first year of Big Ten (18) play. There is an avenue for Oregon to run the table if Dillon Gabriel stays healthy.
San Diego State over 5.5 wins (EVEN)
Schedule: vs. Texas A&M Commerce, vs. Oregon State, at California, at Central Michigan, vs. Hawaii, at Wyoming, vs. Washington State, at Boise State, vs. New Mexico, at UNLV, At Utah State, vs. Air Force
The Aztecs reloaded in the portal, replacing a putrid offense from 2023. Florida State transfer AJ Duffy is unproven, but nabbing Ja'Shaun Poke from Kent/West Virginia gives the Aztecs a receiving threat they haven't had in years. Marquez Cooper also came in from Kent to give the Aztecs the 1-2 punch at RB that they covet.
The schedule is a little on the tough side, but Oregon State, CMU, Wyoming, Hawaii, Wazzu, New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, and Air Force are all winnable games. All they have to do is get five of those. I like the odds.
South Florida over 7.5 wins (+110):
Schedule: vs. Bethune-Cookman, at Alabama, at Southern Miss, vs. Miami (FL), at Tulane, vs. Memphis, vs. UAB, at Florida Atlantic, vs. Navy, at Charlotte, vs. Tulsa, at Rice
We can count Alabama as a loss. It might be a moral victory for the Bulls, but that won't help our bet any. Their toughest road game aside from Bama is Tulane in New Orleans. If the Bulls can take one of Miami, UAB, or Memphis at home, they should hit eight wins.
Byrum Brown (QB-USF) surging to the top of my 2024 Heisman Watch...kid can flat out play: 3200 passing yards, 800 rushing yards and 37 all-purpose TDs as a RS-Freshman? Sign me up for more of this!
Video: 4TD 2nd half vs Rice- Threw for 2, ran for 1, caught 1 pic.twitter.com/DBzV4MRJMK— Jason McGensy (@jpmcgensy) April 15, 2024
Byrum Brown is for real and he has two veteran receivers in Minnesota transfer Michael Brown-Stephens and Purdue transfer Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen. Nay'Quan Wright is an underrated back and Kelley Joiner is a very capable backup.
My only question is whether the defense can hold up. Defensive failures against UAB, FAU, and Memphis helped to send them to a 6-6 record last year. They dodge Western Kentucky this year and get UAB and Memphis at home. Two more wins isn't out of the question.
Stanford under 3.5 wins (+150):
Schedule: vs. TCU, vs. Cal Poly, at Syracuse, at Clemson, vs. Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame, vs. SMU, vs. Wake Forest, at North Carolina State, vs. Louisville, at California, at San Jose State
I don't usually like taking the under on win totals this low, but Stanford only won three games last year. It needed a miracle against Colorado and beat a battered Washington State team. Where are the four wins on this schedule? Even if the continuity at QB with Ashton Daniels (but nowhere else) is enough to beat TCU, it starts 2-0. Great!
It is not beating either Orange team, VT, Notre Dame, or SMU. That is a four-game skid before a reworked Wake team with a dangerous receiver in Taylor Morin and former Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier tossing to him. If it drops that, it will need to beat both Cal (with Jaydn Ott...not happening) and San Jose State. I feel that a 2-10 season is far more likely than 4-8.
Temple under 2.5 wins (-120):
Schedule: at Oklahoma, at Navy, vs. Coastal Carolina, vs. Utah State, vs. Army, at Connecticut, vs. Tulsa, at East Carolina, at Tulane, vs. Florida Atlantic, at UTSA, vs. North Texas
Ouch! The Owls only won three games last year and that was with E.J. Warner. Honestly, I don't see a sure win on this schedule, let alone three! UConn added Nick Evers and Skyler Bell from Wisconsin, which is going to significantly help that offense. The Huskies aren't a sure win anymore.
CCU and Utah State both made bowl games last year. If Navy and ECU were at home, I may feel differently about this. With those as road games, three wins feels very optimistic for the Owls.
College Football Conference Championship Betting Futures
Memphis to win AAC Championship Game (+200):
You know I'm high on Memphis this year. I'm a little worried that the USF defense will catch up to the offense, but not enough to avoid doubling my bet. Memphis is the best team in this conference.
The other major "given" is Boise State in the Mountain West pays out at -150. I love this bet for Memphis.
Virginia Tech to win ACC Championship Game (+750):
I'm only putting a small wager on this, but that's a hell of a return for a team that returns as much talent as the Hokies do. I'm worried about Miami's mastery of the transfer portal; otherwise, I would consider a larger bet.
Arizona to win Big 12 Championship Game (+1300):
I like Utah, but what are we getting out of Cameron Rising? Can Jalon Daniels stay healthy for the whole season? I like Iowa State at +950 in this game as well. There are just enough questions that I could see Arizona winning the conference.
College Football Playoffs Futures Bets
Arizona to make the CFP (+550):
Even if the Wildcats don't win the Big 12 Championship Game, this should be a 10-win team. That might be enough.
Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, and Oregon all make CFP (+140):
This is my favorite ready-made parlay. For those of you feeling adventurous, you can add Penn State to the parlay to up the odds to +250. Penn State hasn't been able to crack the upper echelon, but it is consistently in the top 12 at the end of the season.
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