DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The 3M Open With Keith Mitchell, Chan Kim, Keegan Bradley and More Golf Advice (2024)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 3M Open. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The 3M Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The 3M Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 2

Last Five Winners of the 3M Open

Expected Cut-Line At The 3M Open

TPC Twin Cities

7,481 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

We will go over the course on my podcasts this week!

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Strokes Gained: TPC Courses (10%)

Recent Strokes Gained: Total - Weighted Toward TPC Twin Cities (10%)

 SG: Total Lengthy Par 71s (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted BOB + BOG AVD (10%)

Weighted Ball Striking (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

If you can get access to Bhatia 25/1, there is a ton to like.

Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories

The winner continues to consistently come from this list.

*** I removed Long Par 71s since there wasn't a strong correlation in the category to past winners.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

Let's see where ownership lands before locking in any definitive takes for this section.

I do lean toward Sam Burns being my fade candidate because I would rather roster Tony Finau at the most basic level of that answer for $500 more + Sahith Theegala with the projected leverage that we will get for a golfer who has yet to make the cut at this course in three tries.

I always discuss how ownership gets too skewed in GPP contests from that viewpoint.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I backtested the last five years of this event to see if I could find any corollary trends of the eventual winner. A lot of minor answers formed while doing that. However, the one significant return in all five spots was how the eventual event winner was expected to be one of the steady climbers when comparing Projected Putting On Similar Greens versus Baseline Expectations on any generic surface when running the pre-event data.

Here are the top 11 in that area this week:

My theory is that because this is such an intense ball-striking venue that completely mitigates around the green production, the players who can 1. avoid water with their ball striking and 2. make a few extra putts than usual are the ones that find high-end success.

Remember, the top-10 finishers here only produce roughly a six percent output total around the green, with driving carrying a 4.7% uptick and approach play landing at 3.3%. A lot of the putting stuff carries more of a mixed bag, but the ones who have seen a substantial projection improvement are the ones who land with more upside.

That led me in the path of both Keegan Bradley and Keith Mitchell, two golfers that I will hopefully be higher on than the public.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Outside of Tom Hoge, I likely won't have much interest in this range.

Hoge ranked sixth in my model for Weighted Scoring and carried an additional top-10 grade for Birdie or Better Percentage + Bogey Avoidance.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Part of my reason for wanting to avoid the $8,000 section is because of where my data pushed me in the $7,000s.

Names like Chan Kim and Rico Hoey made my outright card because of their consistent profiles across the board, which includes Kim grading first in my model for Weighted Scoring. That was not a return I expected this week when I started constructing my model.

$6,000 Options to Consider

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Tony Finau (Cash), Sahith Theegala (GPP) if ownership remains extremely low
$9,000+ - GPP - Keith Mitchell/Keegan Bradley
$8,000+ - Tom Hoge
$7,000+ - Chan Kim
$6,000+ - 

Fade In Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - No natural fade but lower on Burns
$9,000+ - None
$8,000+ - Most of the range
$7,000+ -
$6,000+ -

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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