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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another DFS slate that is full of possibilities. We survived the All-Star break lull, and I won't take it for granted that we have baseball games to watch. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix is deep with alternatives, featuring reliable aces, midrange studs, and worthwhile punt plays, undoubtedly leading to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative on today's eleven-game main slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/21/2024 and the slate locking at 1:05 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Ryan vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($10K DK, $9.8K FD)
No other pitcher on this slate has the same ceiling potential as Joe Ryan. Across 19 starts this season, Ryan boasts an impressive 3.08 xERA and a 3.44 xFIP. At the center of his success is the ability to limit baserunners entirely, surrendering just a .221 xBA and a 4.1% walk rate, amounting to a tremendous .278 xwOBA. That said, strikeouts are the primary reason we like Ryan so much for fantasy purposes. The 28-year-old has struck out 27% of batters this season, part of an outstanding 27.4% career mark.
Joe Ryan's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/R4aMMleFTc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2024
At first glance, a matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers looks undesirable. They are scoring an above-average 4.8 runs per game on the season and feature some intimidating names like Christian Yelich and William Contreras. That said, the Brewers have been slumping for the better part of two months. They sport a subpar 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the end of May, which drops to a 92 wRC+ during July, with a generous 25.5% strikeout rate. There are ways this can go wrong, but don't be surprised to see Ryan approach double-digit strikeouts in this game.
Andrew Abbott vs. Washington Nationals ($8.2K DK, $9.2K FD)
There is no shortage of SP2 options on this slate, but Andrew Abbott feels like the best combination of reliable and affordable. Through 19 starts, he sports a strong 3.51 xERA, down from a respectable 3.91 mark during his rookie campaign last season. Abbott's success in 2023 featured an outstanding 26.1% strikeout rate, but his game has played much differently so far this season. He is striking out just 19.4% of hitters, instead relying on his ability to induce weak contact consistently. Opposing hitters have generated an awful 32% hard-hit rate and an 87.6 MPH average exit velocity against Abbott, which amounts to just a .226 xBA and a .375 xSLG.
It's no big secret that the Washington Nationals offense ranks among the league's worst. They are plating fewer than 4.2 runs per game on the season. Washington's struggles are particularly pronounced against left-handed pitching, sporting a horrible 80 wRC+ versus southpaws, alongside a .101 ISO and a .282 wOBA. Outside of Lane Thomas, most of the Nationals' impact bats are left-handed, and lefties have posted just a .254 wOBA against Abbott for his career.
Also Consider: Seth Lugo, Kevin Gausman, Brandon Pfaadt, Michael King, Drew Thorpe
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Trea Turner - SS, PHI vs. Marco Gonzales ($6.3K DK, $4.3K FD)
Trea Turner is my favorite hitter to spend up for today. He is slashing .341/.389/.545 with 12 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 166 wRC+. Turner is also enjoying his hottest stretch of the season, sporting a 1.370 OPS since the beginning of July with nine home runs and a staggering 276 wRC+. Further, he is notoriously brutal against left-handed pitchers, slugging .568 against southpaws in 2024, part of a .506 career mark. The stars are aligned in this matchup.
Trea Turner has 2000 home runs in his last 12 games pic.twitter.com/qanO33WNSO
— John Foley (@2008Philz) July 19, 2024
Marco Gonzales will be a preferred pitcher to target on this slate. He has been limited to just four outings in 2024, and while his 2.45 ERA looks solid on the surface, the advanced metrics are far less forgiving. Gonzales carries a weak 4.89 xERA, down from a 5.26 mark in 2023. His struggles include surrendering a .466 xSLG, 43.5% hard-hit rate, and a .293 xBA. Right-handed hitters are slugging .444 against Gonzales for his entire career.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B, TOR vs. Keider Montero ($4.8K DK, $3.4K FD)
Despite being the focal point of many trade rumors, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is enjoying a terrific campaign. He is slashing .293/.362/.472 with 16 home runs and a 134 wRC+. His success includes truly elite batted-ball metrics, such as a .299 xBA, .527 xSLG, 12.6% barrel rate, 94.1 MPH average exit velocity, and a 55.8% hard-hit rate.
Keider Montero's first taste of the big leagues has been rocky. Across five appearances, he sports a 5.47 ERA. While his 4.83 xERA suggests he deserves better results, Montero is not a particularly heralded prospect and is unlikely to experience a great deal of success in the majors. He posted a 5.16 xFIP over 13 appearances in Triple-A this season, up from a 4.86 xFIP in 2023.
Edmundo Sosa - 2B/3B, PHI vs. Marco Gonzales ($3.6K DK, $2.7K FD)
The Philadelphia Phillies are my favorite stack on the board today. Unfortunately, they are also a very premium stack. For salary relief, look to Edmundo Sosa as an excellent value play. He is perfect as a one-off play or an affordable means of rounding out a Phillies stack. Sosa is slashing .279/.339/.459 with a 123 wRC+ this season. He is at his best against left-handed pitching, slugging .575 versus southpaws in 2024, part of a .468 career mark.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Juan Soto - OF, NYY vs. Shane Baz ($6.1K DK, $4.4K FD)
Rostering Juan Soto requires no justification. He is slashing .303/.431/.571 with 23 home runs and a 184 wRC+ on the season. His advanced metrics are elite in virtually every capacity. Soto's prolific batted-ball metrics include a .647 xSLG, .316 xBA, 19.3% barrel rate, 57.9% hard-hit rate, and a 94.9 MPH average exit velocity.
Shane Baz is a promising young pitcher, but outside of his above-average strikeout stuff, he's struggled in the major leagues. Baz has a weak 5.23 ERA in two starts this season, up from a 5.00 ERA across six appearances in the big leagues last season. Although the sample size is understandably small, he has surrendered a .561 xSLG and a 15.6% barrel rate. Additionally, Baz struggled in the minor leagues this season, posting a 4.12 ERA and a 4.97 xFIP over 10 starts in Triple-A.
Anthony Santander - OF, BAL vs. Andrew Heaney ($4.8K DK, $3.6K FD)
After a slow start at the plate this season, Anthony Santander has impressively turned things around. He has launched 17 home runs since the beginning of June, bringing his season total to 26 alongside a .826 OPS and a 131 wRC+. The switch-hitter has also fared well against left-handed pitchers, slugging .473 versus southpaws this season, part of a .463 career mark.
10 years deep into his major league career, we know what we are getting from Andrew Heaney. He's not great, but he's also not the worst pitcher, featuring 3.93 xERA and a 4.10 xFIP. Although Heaney has done a better job at limiting power this season, right-handed hitters are slugging .460 against him in his career.
Jesus Sanchez - OF, MIA vs. Christian Scott ($3.5K DK, $2.9K FD)
Jesus Sanchez sports a decent .249/.296/.423 slash line with 11 home runs for the season. On the surface, there is nothing to get excited about, but underneath is a player due to breakout. Sanchez's impressive batted-ball profile includes a .494 xSLG, .266 xBA, 12.6% barrel rate, and a 51.7% hard-hit rate. Consider him an excellent value play at this price tag.
Christian Scott is a promising prospect for the New York Mets, but that has not yet translated to the big leagues. Over eight career starts, the 25-year-old sports a middling 4.07 xERA and a mediocre 4.54 xFIP. His struggles include surrendering a 10.7% barrel rate and a .437 xSLG. Left-handed hitters are slugging .532 against Scott so far in 2024.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Marco Gonzales
- Favorite Plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm
2. New York Yankees vs. Shane Baz
- Favorite Plays: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Ben Rice, Alex Verdugo
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