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Welcome RotoBallers to another edition of my 2024 fantasy baseball start/sit article for Week 18, July 22 - July 28. This week's article will focus on Rece Hinds, Lawrence Butler, Corbin Carroll, Matt Olson, Drew Thorpe, Andrew Abbott, Kutter Crawford, and Michael King.
Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-racking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare up to four players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, the current week, next week, or the rest of the season.
The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Sync will automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, July 22 - July 28!
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Fantasy Baseball Exciting Rookie Outfielders
Rece Hinds vs. Lawrence Butler
Our first comparison is between two rookie outfielders who have demanded attention lately. Rece Hinds has had a historic first couple of weeks with the Reds, slashing .400/.438/1.100 with five home runs in his first 32 big-league plate appearances. Lawrence Butler has put together a strong July, slashing .333/.375/.867 with seven HR. Which rookie is worth investing in from a fantasy perspective?
RotoBaller gives Hinds a strong recommendation for Sunday. Hinds will face a tougher matchup, and both players have equivalent counting stat projections. However, Hinds has a clear projection advantage in both batting average and slugging percentage, pushing things in his favor.
Looking to Week 19, the Reds will face middling matchups with three games at the Braves and three at the Rays. The Athletics will face better matchups with three games against the Astros and four at the Angels. Hinds' torrid start is unsustainable, but he has been so exciting that I have to go with him for at least the short term.
Fantasy Baseball First-Half Slumpers
Corbin Carroll (OF) vs. Matt Olson (1B)
Our next comparison is between two top fantasy draft picks who have still not come around to form. Corbin Carroll has provided speed but not much else, slashing .211/.300/.332 with five HR and 19 stolen bases. Matt Olson has not provided the average or power fantasy managers were expecting, slashing .229/.309/.405 with 13 HR and 44 RBI. Which player has a better chance of turning things around in the second half?
Olson gets a strong recommendation for Sunday. Carroll will face a tough matchup, while Olson draws a favorable one. This may have impacted the projections, as Olson has projection advantages across the board except for stolen bases. This surprisingly includes batting average, which also speaks to how badly Carroll has struggled.
The Diamondbacks will face a mixed bag in Week 19, with three games at the Royals and three against the Pirates. The Braves will play seven games, three against the Reds and four at the Mets. Neither player instills much confidence at this point, so fantasy managers may just prefer to go with Carroll if they need stolen bases and Olson if they need power. Carroll has been slightly better overall than Olson in July, so I will give him the nod.
Fantasy Baseball Young Starters
Drew Thorpe vs. Andrew Abbott
Our next comparison is between two young starters who have provided consistent fantasy value. Drew Thorpe has made good on his prospect hype, going 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 14.3% strikeout rate in his first six big-league starts. Andrew Abbott has improved on his 2023 season, going 9-6 with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 19.4% strikeout rate in 19 starts and 106 1/3 IP. Which pitcher offers a higher floor?
RotoBaller gives Abbott a strong recommendation for Sunday. Thorpe will face a tough Royals lineup, while Abbott will face the middling Nationals. Abbott's 1.41 WHIP projection is poor and is higher than Thorpe's, but Abbott has a projection advantage in all other facets.
Thorpe will face a decent matchup in his Week 19 against the Mariners, while Abbott will also draw a decent matchup at the Rays. I think both are fine fantasy options, but Abbott has provided more strikeouts and has the benefit of pitching on the road. He also has a better offense backing him, so I will give him the edge in his next start.
Fantasy Baseball Tough-Matchup Starters
Kutter Crawford vs. Michael King
Our final comparison is between two pitchers who have provided fantasy value but draw tough matchups to start the second half. Kutter Crawford has been a fantasy anchor, going 6-7 with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 24.3% strikeout rate in 20 starts and 114 IP. Michael King has settled in with his new team, going 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 27.6% strikeout rate in 111 IP. Which player has a better chance of surviving their tough second-half start?
RotoBaller gives Crawford a strong recommendation for Sunday. This is interesting, as Crawford will have the relatively worse matchup and both players have roughly equivalent projections. Crawford has a slight projection edge in ERA and WHIP, but King has a slight projection advantage in strikeouts. I think this matchup will be closer than projected and could go either way.
Things won't get easier for Crawford in his next start, which will be against the Yankees. The same goes for King, who will be at the Orioles. While both pitchers have been solid, I would prefer to avoid them in their Week 19 matchups. However, King will get the better ballpark from a pitcher's perspective, so I will go with him.
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