Fantasy Football ADP Values on NFFC - Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks

Dave analyzes undervalued NFFC fantasy football ADPs and sleepers, plus overvalued fantasy football picks for NFFC drafts. Who are bargains in 2024 drafts?

One of the more overlooked parts of fantasy football draft preparation is the platform on which you're drafting. By platform, we specifically reference the website used to host your league’s draft. Different sites have different rankings and thus have different ADP (average draft position) data. A player might be a value on one site but an avoid on another. Since most drafters tend to follow suggested ADP by draft platform, it's all relative to draft cost, and that’s the name of the game. If you can spot the outliers both ways to find the best values, you are one step closer to winning your league.

As part of our Overvalued/Undervalued Series here at RotoBaller, we’re examining the differences in player ADP among various fantasy football platforms to help identify overvalued and undervalued players. Today, we will use National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) ADP data for our exercise.

Make sure to follow RotoBaller on X/Twitter and check out the rest of the other content on RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are several overvalued and undervalued players for you to be better equipped in NFFC drafts.

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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players on NFFC

Kyren Williams, RB - Los Angeles Rams
NFFC ADP: 16.03, RB7

One of last season’s fantasy MVPs, Williams' value took a hit when the Rams selected Michigan back Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Corum was one of the most productive backs in college football and presents an immediate threat to Williams’ spot atop the Rams' depth chart.

TOUCHDOWN Blake Corum! MICHIGAN CAN SMELL IT! pic.twitter.com/TzUdd9E6vc

— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) January 9, 2024

Williams had an incredible 2023 season, and despite the Rams having a front-row seat to it, they still felt the need to draft Corum. GM Les Snead has admitted the team overworked Williams last year, and that they see many similarities between the two backs. It was also reported the Rams were looking to trade their third-round pick during the NFL Draft until they saw Corum falling to them. It’s hard to believe the Rams would draft a back of Corum's caliber only to have him sit on the bench this season.

Williams has also struggled with injuries throughout his career, and he already missed a portion of the Rams’ offseason program with a foot injury. Williams is reportedly a "full go" for training camp, but his injury history is a reminder of his fragility and running backs in general. Should Williams ever miss extended action, it leaves the door open for Corum to become a must-start for fantasy purposes.

At the very least, we should not expect Williams to maintain his 21.3 PPR points per game (PPG) pace from last year. It’s unlikely that Corum immediately takes over the starting gig, but this situation could morph into a timeshare during the season. This backfield is more clouded than some fantasy analysts want to admit. There’s just way too much risk surrounding Williams to justify an ADP of 16th overall right now.

De’Von Achane, RB - Miami Dolphins
NFFC ADP: 19.99, RB8

Achane flashed major potential last year, averaging an absurd 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie. With impressive speed in the open field, Achane is a threat to score any time he touches the ball.

🎥 De'Von Achane vs. Denver Broncos:

➖ 18 carries
➖ 203 yards
➖ 4 total TDs
➖ 67-yard TD run #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/oeMFlpbL5x

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) September 24, 2023

Talent is not an issue. Among running backs with 90+ carries in 2023, Achane finished:

First in Elusive Rating per Pro Football Focus (PFF)

First in Breakway Run Rate % per PFF

Second in RYOE (Rush Yards Over Expected) per Next Gen Stats

While these are fantastic metrics, his role in the offense is up for debate. Miami recently restructured veteran Raheem Mostert’s contract to keep him with the team through 2025. Mostert is coming off a career year in 2023 where he scored an absurd 21 total touchdowns while finishing as the overall RB2 in half-PPR formats. The Dolphins also drafted Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round (No. 120 overall) of the 2024 NFL Draft. This move coupled with the re-signing of Mostert indicates the Dolphins are not yet ready to entirely hand the reins to Achane just yet.

There are also durability concerns surrounding the second year back. Standing at 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds, Achane is undersized for the position, and he suffered shoulder and knee injuries that forced him to miss six games as a rookie last season. While we shouldn’t hold one season’s worth of injuries against a player, it is noteworthy given the concerns about Achane’s size and ability to withstand the rigors of a full NFL season at his size.

Achane’s FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) ADP of 32.26 overall is much more palatable than his ADP on NFFC of 19.99. A third-round pick is a fair price to gamble on Achane’s upside on FFPC, but the problem with his NFFC ADP is that much of the upside is already baked into the cost while ignoring the downside. While older, Mostert is still a good player who hasn't seen a heavy workload throughout his career, and we shouldn't view him through the lens of most 32-year-old running backs.

It’s fair to assume Achane is in line for an expanded role in 2024, but it just doesn’t seem like becoming the clear RB1 is the plan for him. Achane has massive upside due to his incredible efficiency but let someone else take the gamble at this second-round price tag.

C.J. Stroud, QB - Houston Texans
NFFC ADP: 42.72, QB4

Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie last year. He finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game and genuinely looked the part as a franchise quarterback the Texans can build around for the next decade-plus.

This was such an ELECTRIC start to CJ Stroud’s first primetime game ⚡️
pic.twitter.com/V7GJRUrjqT

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) June 29, 2024

Stroud's situation further improved when the Texans acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade this offseason. Diggs joins Nico Collins and Tank Dell to form arguably the best-receiving trio in the league. This sounds great, but it doesn’t change the fact that Stroud offers very little rushing upside from a fantasy perspective. For him to make a run at the overall QB1, Stroud would have to finish with close to 5,000 passing yards and 40+ passing touchdowns. It’s within the range of outcomes, but it’s not certain the Texans' offense will go in that direction.

The team also acquired former Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon to improve their ground game. The addition of Mixon and also signing him to a contract extension shows the team wants more out of its ground attack and might not prefer the pass-happy approach many are expecting.

Stroud is being selected as the QB4 off the board in NFFC leagues. He's going ahead of Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, and Kyler Murray, all of whom present Konami-like upside at the position. All three of those quarterbacks can finish as the QB1 and arguably have an easier path than Stroud does due to their rushing abilities. While we should expect improvement from Stroud in Year 2, the reality is that it’s going to be difficult for him to return a profit at his current draft cost. Touchdowns in fantasy football can be hard to predict and Stroud will need to pass for a lot of them to pay off at his ADP this year.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Players on NFFC

Kyler Murray, QB - Arizona Cardinals
NFFC ADP: 76.48, QB10

Murray feels like one of the biggest steals available in drafts so far this summer.

SO NICE TO HAVE KYLER MURRAY BACK 🔥pic.twitter.com/FGxcFrhBDZ

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) November 19, 2023

We’re out of breath watching this Kyler Murray conversion. My goodness. pic.twitter.com/rFRQu8eeQK

— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) September 18, 2022

With prior QB3 and QB6 finishes on his resume, Murray has already proven that he can be an elite fantasy quarterback. He posted a QB9 finish in fantasy points per game last year despite missing nine games recovering from a torn ACL. We should also expect to see improvement from Murray now that he enters his second year in offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system. Murray gets a massive boost to his receiving core with Marvin Harrison Jr. set to be Arizona’s leading receiver after they drafted him No. 4 overall in the 2024 Draft. Stud tight end Trey McBride will be a go-to weapon as well, forming a solid 1-2 punch for Murray. Now that Murray is over one year recovered from injury and his overall offensive situation has also greatly improved, his ADP doesn’t quite reflect it yet.

Murray still offers Konami Code appeal and carries elite fantasy upside for your lineups. A top-three season is always within striking distance thanks to his rushing abilities. Murray is one of the better options available if you wait until the middle rounds to select a quarterback. It’s easy to buy Murray's QB10 price tag when we already know his upside.

Zamir White, RB - Las Vegas Raiders
NFFC ADP: 80.06, RB24

White was arguably the biggest winner of the offseason. The club opted to let longtime starter Josh Jacobs walk in free agency and only added Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube to the backfield. White enters the season as the Raiders’ clear lead back. He also played quite well in limited action while filling in for Jacobs last year. White finished 14th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT) and second in Rush Percentage Over Expected (ROE%). He also averaged over 114 scrimmage yards and 23 touches per game during his run as the starter. That kind of volume would put White on the RB1 radar for this season.

Gamers in NFFC leagues won’t have to spend a high pick on the third year back. There is some risk that White could be replaced if he struggles. However, we don’t have a large enough sample size indicating he will, so this feels like a different situation when comparing it to someone like Alexander Mattison from last year. White might just be a good player. If he is, then White is one of the best bargains available in drafts.

George Kittle, TE - San Francisco 49ers
NFFC ADP: 82.61, TE8

Kittle finished 2023 as the overall TE5 in half and full-PPR leagues as well as the TE2 in non-PPR formats. He also finished as the TE3 in PPG in non-PPR formats, TE5 in half-PPR PPG, and TE6 in PPR PPG. Why exactly he is going off NFFC draft boards as the TE8 is beyond me.

Brock Purdy to George Kittle for their second touchdown hookup of the game!pic.twitter.com/rfJHtWVGrG

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) October 9, 2023

There is a crowded target scene in San Francisco. However, we saw this exact scenario unfold last year, and Kittle still finished as a top-five tight end. Additionally, whenever one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr. has missed action, Kittle has been the clear beneficiary from a fantasy perspective. Kittle finished as the TE3, TE8, and TE2 when Aiyuk or Samuel missed games last year.

In 2022, Kittle had finishes of TE7, TE1, TE3, and TE12 during the four games that Samuel missed. The pattern is clear. Whenever one of the 49ers' top receivers goes down, Kittle gets a bump. There is also still the unlikely event that either Aiyuk or Samuel will be traded before the season.

Yes, Kittle’s week-to-week performance can be more boom/bust than you’d like to see, but he had nine top-12 finishes to go along with seven finishes of TE22 or worse last year. But he’s still more than capable of spike weeks that can help win your matchup. Buy the dip and enjoy the discount on Kittle for another year.

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