RADIO
Every year, gamers are looking for three-down running backs during their fantasy football drafts. With the league continually moving towards running-back-by-committee backfields, it’s getting increasingly difficult to find true workhorse backs with each passing year.
Making things more difficult is that even when we do find a workhorse back in fantasy drafts, there’s no guarantee that said back will maintain a workhorse role. It really makes you wonder if we should ever invest significant draft capital in the running back position.
Nonetheless, gamers will always chase running backs and their elite fantasy upside. It’s our job to know which workhorse backs to target and which ones to avoid. Today, let’s take a look at three potential workhorse running backs who could bust during the 2024 fantasy football season.
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Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs is coming off a disappointing 2023 season. He finished as the RB28 and was one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics.
He finished 45th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), 41st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). These are concerning marks, and outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient player.
There is also a question regarding whether or not Jacobs fits Green Bay’s rushing scheme.
In addition to his horrific efficiency metrics, want another reason to fade #Packers RB Josh Jacobs this year?
Per @FantasyPtsData, the Packers ran zone concept rushing plays at the 11th highest rate last year.
Among 49 backs with 100+ carries, Jacobs ranked 40th in success…
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) July 12, 2024
The team also drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class in terms of pure talent, and the Packers have stated that they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film. Lloyd picked up a hamstring injury this summer, but this shouldn’t deter Green Bay from giving him touches in the season if Jacobs continues to struggle.
There’s just a little too much risk to recommend investing in Jacobs this year.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
One of last season’s fantasy MVPs, Williams' value took a hit when the Rams selected Michigan back Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL Draft. Corum was one of the most productive backs in college football and presented an immediate threat to Williams’ spot atop the depth chart.
Seeing Blake Corum score a touchdown in The Game right after Zak Zinter went out with a serious leg injury:
All. The. Feels. pic.twitter.com/bkoZrwmW1I
— Swanky Wolverine (@swankywolverine) November 28, 2023
Williams had an incredible 2023, but the Rams had a front-row seat and still felt the need to draft Corum with a Day 2 pick. GM Les Snead admitted that the team overworked Williams last year and that they see many similarities between the two backs.
It was also reported the Rams were looking to trade their third-round pick until they saw Corum falling to them. It’s hard to believe the Rams would draft a back like Corum only to have him sit on the bench.
Williams has also struggled with injuries throughout his career, and he already missed a portion of the Rams’ offseason program with a foot injury. Williams has been a full go this summer and, by all accounts, looks sharp, but his latest injury is a reminder of his fragility.
Should Williams ever miss extended action, it will leave the door open for Corum. At the very least, we should not expect Williams to maintain his 21.3 PPR points per game (PPG) pace from last year.
It’s unlikely that Corum will immediately take over the starting gig, but this situation could morph into a timeshare. This backfield is murkier than some gamers want to admit. Let someone else take overpay for Williams on draft day.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While White enjoyed a strong 2023 en route to a PPR RB4 finish, he graded poorly across numerous key metrics. Among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished 42nd in MTF/ATT, 49th in RYOE, and 43rd in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Rushing Grade.
He was flat-out bad, and just about any metric will tell you that. However, volume was on his side, and White was able to provide fantasy football results despite his extreme inefficiency.
Tampa Bay’s coaching staff has made it clear that it expects White to improve in certain areas in 2024. The club also selected running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the NFL Draft and spoke highly of the rookie’s impressive burst and decisiveness during minicamp.
White might be on a shorter leash this year. If the team starts losing games and White continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if the coaching staff looks elsewhere to improve the ground game.
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