Predicting All First-Time 4,000-Yard Passers in 2024 - NFL Fantasy Football Outlook

Which NFL quarterbacks could throw for over 4,000 yards for the first time in their careers during the 2024 season? Quincy Milton breaks down three options.

Even in the modern 17-game NFL, passing for 4,000 yards is still an excellent feat. It is generally used as a mark that separates average quarterbacks from good quarterbacks.

Throwing for 4,000 yards is so difficult that even the Chicago Bears as a franchise have never had an individual top that number. The Seahawks and Eagles each experienced their first 4,000-yard passing seasons in the 2010s, courtesy of Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz, respectively.

Since the 17-game season was implemented in 2021, 9-10 quarterbacks have thrown for 4,000 yards each year. That leaves more than two thirds of the league out of this exclusive club. Health, offensive system, and quality of weapons all contribute to a quarterback's ability to throw for 4,000 yards. Many existing starting NFL quarterbacks have thrown for 4,000 yards at some point in their career, but there are a few individuals who have a shot at their first 4,000-yard season in 2024.

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Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

During his MVP-level campaign in 2022, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was on pace for 4,000 passing yards. Hurts' 246.7 passing yards per game would have been good for 4,194.5 yards if he had played all 17 games. A sprained shoulder kept Hurts out of Weeks 16 and 17.

Hurts and the Eagles took a huge step back in 2023. Hurts only finished with 3,858 passing yards in a full 17-game season. With new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in town, the Eagles offense should return to a form closer to that of 2022. It would be surprising if Hurts did not top 4,000 yards for the first time in his career.

.@JalenHurts keeping the main thing the main thing 🏈🔥 pic.twitter.com/39SB0UW1fB

— NFL (@NFL) July 11, 2024

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals 

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has always been considered one of the better quarterbacks in the league, albeit on the back of rushing and passing. The closest Murray has ever come to topping 4,000 yards was in 2020 when he threw for 3,971 yards.

The Cardinals offense does not project to be unbelievable in 2024, but it should be serviceable. With the ascension of tight end Trey McBride and the influx of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., it feels like there is enough here to allow Murray to top the golden mark. Like Hurts, Murray has also paced for 4,000 yards in an injury shortened season in the past, so we know he should be capable.

I don’t care if you hate Kyler Murray for playing Call of Duty

The Cardinals offense is going to be very good the next few years with K1 throwing the ball

One of the better play extenders we’ve seen in awhile. pic.twitter.com/b6yqsDaqWF

— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) June 29, 2024

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

I have been beating the sleeper drum for Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis all offseason. I will not go so far as to predict excellence from Levis, but he truly is a dark-horse candidate to level up in 2024. Each season, we are surprised by a quarterback or two. In 2023, it was C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love. In hindsight, we could have looked at how their teams were built and projected success.

Levis has been handed a good chance to succeed in 2024. The Titans boosted their offensive weaponry by signing running back Tony Pollard and wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Although the offensive line is ranked 30th by PFF, it is improved from 2023. Should this unit come together in 2024, Levis will have a chance in the pocket.

Lastly, the Titans have an improved but not excellent defense. They will need to throw to stay in games. As such, Levis could very well end up in the 4,000-yard club in 2024.

Will Levis will treat a first down like the goal line pic.twitter.com/cv41XiXhT1

— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) July 3, 2024

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