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Which fantasy football wide receivers will hold target hog roles in 2024? Justin Carter from RotoBaller provides an analysis of what to expect this season.
For a wide receiver to be good in fantasy, they must get the football. Duh, right? But you know what I mean: the more targets a player receives, the more opportunities exist for them to score points in fantasy.
Sometimes, you get players who are their team's No. 1 receiver, which leads to a high target share for those players. Who are those players for 2024 and who should you be targeting in your fantasy football drafts?
Below is every NFL receiver who looks to be a target hog in 2024. While I'm not necessarily setting a strict percentage of their team's targets they'll get, these are players who have a reasonable shot to see at least 25% of their team's targets while not facing major competition from another player on the roster. One notable name that was cut from this list at the last minute was Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin due to Jahan Dotson feeling poised for a big year beside him in an offense without many established pass catchers.
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Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
It seems rare to find a rookie here, but the Cardinals quite simply don't have any other top receivers. Michael Wilson had some good moments last season and Zay Jones had had solid campaigns in the past, but they aren't Harrison Jr., who enters the league with immense hype as the son of a former Hall of Famer with the same name.
Quarterback Kyler Murray's going to be peppering MHJ with targets this season.
so the Cardinals ranked 9th in offensive EPA/play weeks 10-18, have a full offseason of a healthy kyler murray, and added a receiver projected to get 1,000 yards in marvin harrison jr to pair with a tight end who ranked 4th in YPRR last season and still have a James Conner led… pic.twitter.com/J98Bvgif14
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) July 9, 2024
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb was targeted 181 times last season, per StatMuse. The second-most targeted wide receiver on this Cowboys roster last season was Brandin Cooks with 81, a full 100 fewer than Lamb. Considering the Cowboys enter this season with an arguably less deep unit after the departure of Michael Gallup, it's hard to see this situation changing in 2024.
Lamb could easily lead the NFL in receptions for a second consecutive season, especially after the team parted ways with leading rusher Tony Pollard this offseason.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
The Broncos replaced Jerry Jeudy with Josh Reynolds this offseason. At this point, it's not clear if that's a lateral move or not, but what it does mean is that Courtland Sutton enters 2024 as the clear No. 1 guy for Denver.
Targeted 90 times last year, Sutton should easily clear 100 this season and has a shot to surpass his career high of 124 targets back in 2019.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Even if you think Jameson Williams is bound for a breakout after flashing his upside last season, no one is taking away the Sun God's role as Detroit's top receiver.
He's coming off a season where he was targeted 164 times, the most of his career. ARSB finished with 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns, so expect Jared Goff to continue feeding him the football.
Draft this man.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is driven to be great.#ReceiverNetflix pic.twitter.com/vHHzHpoGWo
— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) July 12, 2024
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have two intriguing young players in Josh Downs (high-ankle sprain) and rookie second-rounder Adonai Mitchell, but they shouldn't eat into Pittman Jr.'s role as the top receiver on this Indianapolis team. Pittman is coming off a 2023 season in which he was targeted 156 times, the most of his NFL career.
The gap between Pittman and the team's No. 2 receiver last year, Downs with 98 targets, might shrink a bit, but I'd still expect Pittman to see around 150 targets in 2024.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders added Jakobi Meyers and he had a good first year in silver and black as he was targeted 106 times. Despite that, Adams still cleared him in opportunities as he was targeted 175 times over the year. It marked three years in a row with at least 150 targets for Adams, and it's tough to imagine that changing in 2024.
Sure, at some point, the 31-year-old receiver might take a step back, but I'm confident enough to still predict him as the Raiders' top wideout.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson missed seven games in 2023 yet still had 100 targets, just eight fewer than teammate Jordan Addison, who played all 17 contests. Jefferson finished with 1,074 receiving yards, a number that led the team.
Sure, the quarterback position is not ideal this year in Minnesota with Sam Darnold potentially starting all season following J.J. McCarthy's season-ending injury, but he will pepper Jefferson, arguably the league's best receiver, with triple-digit targets once again.
The good news for this team is that head coach Kevin O'Connell is one of the best play-callers in the league and should still have plenty dialed up Jefferson's way.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Olave was targeted 138 times in 2023, while Rashid Shaheed was second among the team's receivers with 75 and Michael Thomas was third with 65. Thomas was released this offseason, so Shaheed could see an uptick in targets, but the speedy receiver doesn't project to be a guy who is used much in the short and medium passing game.
That should leave Olave to get plenty of targets from Derek Carr in 2024. There is also increased optimism after the team brought in former San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak to be their new offensive coordinator this season. Poaching from the Shanahan tree has led to a lot of success for teams in the past for fantasy purposes.
Chris Olave left a LOT on the table in 2023👀
Olave was #3 in Unrealized Air Yards (1058), finishing as the WR19 in PPG with 14.5🥶
Does he have a WR1 finish in his future?📢#PlayerProfilerStats pic.twitter.com/q65MWljcyL
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) July 10, 2024
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' depth chart at wide receiver behind George Pickens is pretty sad. Van Jefferson is coming off a season in which he caught 20 passes for 209 yards. Roman Wilson is a third-round rookie. Calvin Austin III, Scotty Miller, and Quez Watkins are all just guys.
Pickens was targeted 106 times last year and is the No. 2 guy on the team in targets, behind Diontae Johnson, who is now in Carolina. With an upgrade at quarterback from the Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph trio to Russell Wilson, Pickens is set for a breakout season.
Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
This is one of the less likely players in this article, as it requires a second-year player like Douglas to make a big leap in Year 2. As a rookie, Douglas led the Pats in targets, but he only had 79 of them. Still, the Patriots didn't add any receiver this offseason who will be instantly better than Douglas, so if he does break out, there won't be a lot of competition for targets.
Douglas should dominate the slot role, which means he should still be on the field should the team wish to get rookie wide receivers Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker more involved.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson was drafted into a rough quarterback situation, but it looked like that would be fixed before his second season when the Jets added Aaron Rodgers. Alas, Rodgers was quickly injured in Week 1 and Wilson returned to the purgatory that was the Jets' QB room.
Still, he managed 95 receptions for 1,042 yards, so it wasn't all bad, and with Rodgers set to return in 2024, Wilson could be on his way to a career-best season.
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