The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 17

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 17 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- July 15 through July 21. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. With the arrival of the All-Star break, it is the ideal time to pause, reflect, and focus on what we need for a successful end to our fantasy seasons.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Nolan Jones - 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies - 66% rostered

Jones being placed on the IL for a second time with a back strain makes this one much easier. For now, if you have space, place Jones on your IL. He missed more than six weeks earlier this season but it remains to be seen how long Jones will miss this time. The Rockies might find something significant and shut him down for the year. It might just be a minor issue and with the All-Star break on the horizon, it made sense to put him on the IL.

Nolan Jones was scratched last night and heads back to the injured list today with a lower back strain. Tanner Gordon was also optioned to AAA.

Sean Bouchard and Angel Chivilli have been recalled the replace them #Rockies

— Luke Zahlmann (@lukezahlmann) July 13, 2024

Assuming it is the latter and we see Jones again in July, if you are holding then he should be getting a short leash. We've seen very little positivity from Jones when he has played. In 49 games, he's got a .202/.311/.313 slash line with three homers, 14 RBI, 19 runs, and three steals. A far cry from his 20/20 season last year in just 106 games. His expected stats aren't much better so we can't label Jones as unlucky.

Verdict: Last year's breakout was largely skills-supported so I'm not willing to write it off as an outlier just yet. Regular readers will know my apprehension when back injuries are mentioned. If Jones can return healthy, we may see the best of him. However, that's a big if, especially if this is an ongoing issue. Unless you have an empty IL spot and no one else worth stashing, I have no issue dropping Jones in anything but dynasty or deep leagues.

David Fry - C/1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians - 61% rostered

Fry was one of the biggest stories in fantasy during the first two months of the season. By the end of May, he was hitting .352/.485/.629 and had picked up outfield and first base eligibility if he hadn't had it already. The versatility and volume at the catcher position made Fry one of the best options at the position. Things have since turned south and while I was fine running with Fry while he was hot, I'm equally fine dropping him now.

Since June 1, Fry has hit .213/.272/.309 (103 plate appearances) and hasn't homered. That's left him with eight home runs, 33 RBI, 29 runs, and four stolen bases on the year, along with a .282/.391/.470 slash line (72 games). The main reason why I didn't believe that Fry was having a breakout as a 28-year-old was due to the fact his hot start to the season came from nowhere.

Fry was a career .268/.348/.469 hitter in the Minors (439 games). Good, but nothing that screams he'd be elite in the majors. At the Triple-A level, Fry hit 22 home runs in 167 games. Again, that's good but not eye-popping. Fry's recent struggles have seen him lose a bit of playing time. While his versatility will keep him in the Guardians lineup, Fry isn't doing enough to warrant being rostered so much in fantasy leagues.

Verdict: Fry ranks as the 11th catcher on Yahoo! this year. Over the last 30 days, he ranks 79th at the position. There's still enough juice in the bat to warrant rostering Fry in two catcher leagues or in leagues that count OBP, given Fry's 12.3% BB% (and 10.6% BB% in the minors). If you boarded the Fry hype train in the early part of the season, now would be the time to disembark and find someone else to take you to a fantasy championship.

Hold For Now

Luis Gil - SP, New York Yankees - 86% rostered

Entering June, Gil was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball. Three consecutive rough outings saw fantasy managers lose faith in the Yankees youngster. Gil had a nice bounce-back performance last Sunday, allowing just one earned run while striking out nine batters (6 2/3 IP). He followed that up with another very good outing against the Orioles yesterday. Gil allowed just one run over six innings (with seven strikeouts).

That has left Gil with a 10-5 W-L record, 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 118 Ks (102 1/3 IP). Despite his solid outing last weekend, Gil still took the loss. That was his fourth straight loss. Yesterday was a much-needed win for Gil, the Yankees, and Gil's fantasy managers. It should hopefully help reassure fantasy managers that the three-game scuffle was just a blip and not a sign of things to come.

The reality is, we were always going to see some regression in Gil's numbers. After his 14th start of the season, Gill had a 2.03 ERA. He also had a 3.81 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA. Gil had a 14.90 ERA, 8.25 xFIP, and 6.74 SIERA during that rough three-game stretch. That was an overcorrection, but some regression in his ERA was inevitable. If we compare his ERA and xFIP throughout the season, we can see that the difference between them is narrowing.

Here is where things will get difficult for Gil's fantasy managers. He's topped 100 innings this year and it's hard to see him getting many more. Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in 2022 meant Gil has only pitched a total of 29 2/3 innings over the previous two seasons. Assuming the Yankees reach the playoffs, they will certainly want Gil pitching in some capacity in October.

Whether that means a move to the bullpen, a "phantom IL" stint, or a demotion to Triple-A, we simply don't know at this point. If I were to guess, the Yankees will want to keep Gil in the 140-150 innings range this year. That does mean we could see around eight starts, which is why I'm not dropping him right now. However, there will likely come a time when Gil isn't a viable fantasy pitcher so be prepared to replace him at some point this season.

Justin Verlander - SP, Houston Astros - 84% rostered

Verlander may be at a different period of his career than Gil, but I'm preaching the same for him; hold for now. He remains without a timetable for a return from a neck injury and we may not see him again until August. He is due to throw a bullpen session today which might provide more news. The good news is that you can just keep Verlander on your IL and then assess his performance when he returns. His numbers were decent before the injury.

After 10 starts, Verlander has a 3-2 W-L record, 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 51 Ks (57.0 IP). We saw a significant decline in Verlander's strikeout numbers last year. That has carried into this year with his 21.3% K% being nearly identical to 2023 (21.5% K%). Given he had TJS in 2020 and missed the entire 2021 season, it shouldn't come as a surprise that a pitcher now in their 40s has a diminishing strikeout rate.

My bigger concern when Verlander returns is in his underlying numbers. His 4.91 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA hint at some ERA regression. However, it was a similar story last year which never panned out as we may have thought. In 2023, Verlander had a 3.22 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, and 4.43 SIERA (162 1/3 IP). When winning the AL Cy Young award in 2022, Verlander had a 1.75 ERA (175 IP). He also had a 3.23 xFIP and a 3.09 SIERA.

Verlander has proved he can outpitch his underlying numbers over a larger sample than the 57 innings he's managed this year. And while Father Time remains undefeated, he may have to wait a little longer to win this fight. Assuming Verlander can return in the not-too-distant future, I'd be looking to give him a few starts before I'd consider dropping him. Any significant injury setback would make me change my approach.

On the Hot Seat

Anthony Volpe - SS, New York Yankees - 92% rostered

It should come as no surprise to fantasy managers that Volpe finds himself on the Hot Seat. It may be an overdue placement for Volpe given how much he's struggled lately. Volpe's excellent start to the season saw him inserted atop the Yankees lineup in April. However, July has seen Volpe slip back down to the bottom half of the batting order. We can see why when looking at his monthly numbers.

It was a similar story last year with Volpe running hot and cold for weeks at a time. Volpe's best month of the season was August when he hit .256/.333/.556, seven home runs, and had a 142 wRC+. That was followed by his worst month of the season when he hit .163/.226/.255 with a 33 wRC+ in September. Of Volpe's 24 stolen bases last year, 13 came in the first two months of the season. So there's also a concern that he runs less as the season progresses.

That remains to be seen. What we do know from Volpe's early major league career is that his bat seems to be extremely streaky. This cold streak is something of an extreme though. Since June 20, Volpe has a .403 OPS. That's the second-worst of 173 qualified hitters. Given his inability to get on base, it won't shock anyone that Volpe doesn't have a stolen base in that period either.

The one good thing is that Volpe won't see his playing time disappear. He's been one of the best defensive shortstops, ranking in the 99th percentile for Outs Above Average with 10. Only Bobby Witt Jr. (14) has more at shortstop. For fantasy managers, all that means is Volpe will be playing more without producing any value on your teams.

Given what we saw from Volpe last year and the way he started this season, it's difficult to justify dropping Volpe. However, he's not startable right now. The best course of action would be to keep Volpe on your bench, which is likely where he's been recently. When he starts showing signs of life at the plate, slide him back into your lineups and hope you see a prolonged period of the best of Volpe.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Ezequiel Tovar - SS, Colorado Rockies - 80% rostered

Tovar's requests are a little curious but he is worth looking at as his situation covers other players (Andres Gimenez springs to mind). If we look at Tovar's numbers, they're not astounding. He has 12 homers, 38 RBI, 44 runs, and four steals with a .269/.296/.441 slash line (94 games). That's a 162-game pace of 21 home runs, 65 RBI, 76 runs, and seven stolen bases. Very similar to last year with more homers, fewer steals, and a better slash line.

If we just look at Yaho0!, Tovar was ranked 82nd among hitters coming into the season. He's currently ranked as the 80th hitter. It's difficult to justify dropping Tovar given he's performing almost as expected, albeit with slightly different numbers than projected. It's worth looking at Tovar's splits. Unlike many of his teammates, Tovar is performing better on the road than he is at home.

Despite the lackluster numbers at Coors Field, I'm not suggesting you bench Tovar at home. His plate discipline is awful, which means his value is lessened in points or OBP leagues. Tovar's 3.1% BB% is in the second percentile and 28.7% K% is in the 10th percentile. Again, this shouldn't have come as a shock to anyone drafting him.

In standard leagues, Tovar is providing value on his ADP so isn't someone I would be dropping. He has trade value still at the very least. If you haven't been happy with Tovar's performances, it's likely he was reached for in drafts or expectations were too high. He was drafted as a solid middle infield option and has performed as such. If he can pick up the numbers at home, Tovar could end the season as a top-15 shortstop.

Dansby Swanson - SS, Chicago Cubs - 66% rostered

After three successive 20+ home run seasons, that streak looks set to end. Swanson will head into the All-Star break with a .215/.285/.354 slash line, nine homers, 31 RBI, 37 runs, and five steals (86 games). His slash line is set to be a career-worst unless he can turn things around in the second half. While I wouldn't bet against a better second half, it's difficult to see Swanson providing enough fantasy value to warrant holding him.

If we look back at last season, Swanson had a .225 batting average in the second half. That means Swanson has a .220 batting average over his last 150 games. Swanson's .248 xBA (expected batting average) and .429 xSLG offer hope that his slash line can improve in the second half. The problem is that his xBA ranks in the 40th percentile and xSLG ranks in the 60th percentile. He is only hovering around the league averages.

Now for some good news. Swanson has seemingly woken up from his slumber at the plate. He's gone 8-for-18 in his last five games. On Thursday, Swanson hit his first homer since June 19 and he's got four RBI and five runs since last Sunday. As we can see from his rolling wOBA, this week has seen Swanson creep above league average. We've seen something similar already this year so I'm not prepared to announce Swanson as being back.

If you've held Swanson to this point, it'll be prudent to give him a bit more time. Just like I won't drop someone for a bad week, I won't use one good week to beat the drum for someone as being worth rostering. If Swanson can take this momentum into the rest of the season, he should be a top-15 shortstop and be able to provide value as a middle infielder. If he finishes July as he started it, I wouldn't think too hard about dropping him.

Ryan Jeffers - C, Minnesota Twins - 52% rostered

Jeffers was one of the hottest hitters in the early weeks of the season. At the end of May, Jeffers was sporting a .256/.345/.547 slash line with 12 homers, 36 RBI, 25 runs and two steals. Things went decidedly south in June when he hit .161/.238/.232. His wRC+ dropped from 149 to 122 and Jeffers himself dropped down the batting order. The early signs for July offer hope that he has turned the corner.

Jeffers has gone 8-for-26 in six games with three extra-base hits. The concerning number is the seven games he's played. Christian Vazquez started July red-hot, homering twice in his first three games this month. The schedule has played a part in that but fantasy managers will want to see more playing time for Jeffers. He only started yesterday due to Carlos Correa being a late scratch due to a heel injury.

Jeffers played 26 games in March/April and 25 games in May, then only 16 games in June during his struggles. If he continues to swing the bat well, that playing time should begin to creep up again. Injuries may see DH opportunities become more frequent too. Regardless, Jeffers is doing enough to warrant being rostered while he's hitting well. But another slump or continued diminished at-bats will make Jeffers replaceable in shallower leagues.

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