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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another DFS slate that's full of possibilities. It's a beautiful afternoon for baseball, and what better way to cap off the Fourth of July weekend than with a tournament takedown? Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix offers us few reliable aces, so we'll have to consider some riskier options, which will undoubtedly lead to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative on today's nine-game main slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/7/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Tarik Skubal vs. Cincinnati Reds ($10.5K DK, $10.7K FD)
Looking broadly at the pitching options on this slate, nobody else rivals Tarik Skubal. He is the only true ace available to roster today and ranks among the favorites for the American League Cy Young Award. Across 17 starts, Skubal sports an impressive 2.90 xERA and a 2.94 xFIP. That success includes limiting opposing hitters to a .214 xBA, .271 xwOBA, 32.1% hard-hit rate, and a .357 xSLG. Most importantly, Skubal has generated an outstanding 29.2% strikeout rate alongside a 32% whiff rate and a minuscule 4.9% walk rate.
The Cincinnati Reds don't represent the easiest matchup for opposing pitchers, but they are far from intimidating. They have plated a middling 4.3 runs per game on the season, including a generous 24.3% strikeout rate. The Reds are not particularly impressive against left-handed pitching either, posting a 97 wRC+ against southpaws. Elly De La Cruz can produce offense in many ways, but this Cincinnati lineup lacks firepower overall.
DJ Herz vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($7.8K DK, $8K FD)
A DJ Herz recommendation as the SP2 on this slate says a lot about today's pitching depth. There aren't many great options, so why not chase down an uncertain value arm with a slate-breaking ceiling?
Through six career starts, Herz sports a weak 4.67 ERA, though his 3.43 xERA and 3.19 xFIP suggest the rookie is due for positive regression. That said, the advanced metrics aren't the only reason to like rostering him. Herz has struck out opposing hitters at a 30.6% rate with a 31.3% whiff rate. The sample size is relatively small, but it does continue the dominant strikeout numbers Herz posted in the minor leagues. He has already demonstrated the ability to rack up double-digit strikeouts in separate outings this season, and if he can accomplish something similar today, Herz will more than pay off his salary.
DJ Herz records his second 10+ K, 0 BB outing in 6 career starts! pic.twitter.com/fuVNhDscKT
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2024
The St. Louis Cardinals have picked it up offensively after their uncharacteristically slow start to the campaign. Still, the numbers aren't very pretty. The Cardinals are scoring just four runs per game on the season, and they have been particularly awful against left-handed pitching. St. Louis owns a 77 wRC+ against southpaws, the second-worst mark in baseball, alongside a .273 wOBA and a .115 ISO.
Also Consider: Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Soriano, Zack Littell
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
CJ Abrams - SS, WSH vs. Kyle Gibson ($6.4K DK, $3.6K FD)
If you can afford the steep price tag, CJ Abrams is worth paying up for today. He carries a .280/.350/.506 slash line with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases so far this season. The underlying metrics further legitimize Abrams' success, as he has generated a .291 xBA, .471 xSLG, and a 39.1% sweet-spot rate.
Kyle Gibson's middling 3.88 ERA does paint an honest picture of his performance this season. Underneath, he sports an uglier 4.82 xERA, which includes a 9.2% barrel rate, .438 xSLG, and a .343 xwOBA. Left-handed hitters are slugging .457 against Gibson this season, down from a .480 mark in 2023.
Colt Keith - 2B, DET vs. Graham Ashcraft ($3K DK, $2.9K FD)
Colt Keith is an excellent value play today. His .241/.285/.361 slash line isn't terribly impressive, but the rookie appears to be establishing himself against major league pitching. Keith has hit safely in four consecutive games, posting three multi-hit efforts and three home runs during that span. There is some recency bias in that justification. However, it's important to remember that Keith launched 27 long balls in the minor leagues last season and entered the 2024 campaign as the No. 22 prospect in all baseball. A continued breakout would not be surprising.
Graham Ashcraft ranks among the worst pitchers on this slate. Over 14 outings, he sports a weak 5.02 xERA and a 4.38 xFIP. His struggles this season include surrendering a .450 xSLG and a 44.3% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters. Left-handed hitters have been particularly effective versus Ashcraft, slugging .468 against him.
Brooks Lee - 3B, MIN vs. Spencer Arrighetti ($2.5K DK, $2.7K FD)
For even cheaper value, look no further than Brooks Lee. The 23-year-old made his major league debut this past week and wasted no time making a strong first impression. Heading into today, Lee has hit safely in all four games, generating seven hits, one home run and six runs batted in already. He is the second-ranked prospect in the Minnesota Twins farm system and the No. 13 prospect in all baseball, per MLB Pipeline. Lee's price tag is unlikely to stay this low for long, so enjoy it while you can.
One for the record Brooks! 👏
Brooks Lee mashes his first Major League home run! pic.twitter.com/jtO6ClX0Sa
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) July 6, 2024
The advanced numbers suggest that Spencer Arrighetti is due for positive regression, but it is hard to ignore how ugly the rookie's results have been. Through 15 starts, he sports a 6.13 ERA, a much less forgiving mark than his still-mediocre 4.24 xERA. While a 12.3% walk rate has been Arrighetti's biggest flaw, he has also been susceptible to power. Left-handed hitters are slugging .471 against him.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Nimmo - OF, NYM vs. Quinn Priester ($4.9K DK, $3.3K FD)
Brandon Nimmo and the entire New York Mets offense look fantastic today. He sports a .810 OPS on the season with 13 home runs and posted a 1.003 OPS in June. Nimmo's success includes a 49.3% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrel rate, 92.4 MPH average exit velocity, .469 xSLG, and an outstanding .374 xwOBA. He has already enjoyed a strong campaign, but Nimmo is also a positive regression candidate as we advance.
Quinn Priester will be a preferred pitcher to target on this slate. The 23-year-old is making his first appearance in roughly a month following an injured list stint, but with a rehab assignment under his belt, Priester should assume a full workload. He sports a weak 4.76 xERA across six appearances this season, down from a 6.28 xERA during his rookie campaign last year. Priester has been crushed by opposing hitters to the tune of a 52.2% hard-hit rate, 91 MPH average exit velocity, and a .463 xSLG. He is vulnerable to hitters of all handedness, though it's important to note that left-handed hitters are slugging .611 against Priester for his career.
J.D. Martinez - 1B/OF, NYM vs. Quinn Priester ($4.7K DK, $3.2K FD)
Continuing with the trend of New York Mets hitters, J.D. Martinez is another fantastic option. After missing the first chunk of the season, Martinez has made his presence felt. He carries a strong .828 OPS with 10 home runs and a 141 wRC+. His success consists of some spectacular batted-ball metrics, such as a .551 xSLG, 17.9% barrel rate, .278 xBA, 46.7% hard-hit rate, and a 90.8 MPH average exit velocity.
Taylor Ward - OF, LAA vs. Hayden Wesneski ($4.6K DK, $3.1K FD)
Taylor Ward is better than what his .237/.322/.421 slash line tells us. He has generated a .504 xSLG, 15.2% barrel rate, 91.1 MPH average exit velocity, 44.1% hard-hit rate, and a 364 xwOBA. That has resulted in 14 home runs and a 108 wRC+ so far, but Ward is due for bigger numbers.
Hayden Wesneski seems to finally be stretched out as a starter after hurling 89 pitches in his most recent outing. Still, his numbers haven't been encouraging, posting a 4.79 xERA across 50 innings pitched. That includes surrendering a 10.8% barrel rate and a .473 xSLG to opposing hitters. Right-handed hitters are slugging .473 against Wesneski in 2024.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. New York Mets vs. Quinn Priester
- Favorite Plays: Francisco Lindor, J.D. Martinez, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez
2. Los Angeles Angels vs. Hayden Wesneski
- Favorite Plays: Taylor Ward, Logan O'Hoppe, Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Keston Hiura
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