RADIO
The week in Silvis, Illinois is coming to a close tomorrow as we look to crown the newest champion of one of the more underrated events on the PGA Tour schedule. It has been a predictable birdie fest over the first three days of the John Deere Classic, where shooting a couple of shots under par can lose positions, and playing things safe isn't an option. This venue has been a place that has hosted many young talents who have gone on to be PGA Tour stars, and with a leaderboard chock-full of young, unproven names, tomorrow's final round could very well find another one.
Making tons of birdies is the obvious de facto in an event like this, but being able to do that around TPC Deere Run this week has been through strong play off the tee and around the greens. Three of the top five on the leaderboard are inside the top five in strokes gained around the green and from tee to green. It is a super-getable track if players can get it in the correct spots off the tee. With one round left to play, it feels like a three-horse race with Davis Thompson out in front by two shots at -21 over, Eric Cole, and Aaron Rai at -19. Everyone else is five shots back or more and needs some carnage ahead of them to make a run.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership and leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Conditions have been perfect all week, and things will be much of the same tomorrow with a small chance of a thunderstorm rolling through in the afternoon. The golf course has been soft each of the first three days with someone posting 63 or better every day. That will probably be the case tomorrow as well, and if so, it will likely not come from anyone inside the top 10. Do with that information as you wish.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Sungjae Im had a mediocre third round that saw him -3 under on his round through 14 holes before a double bogey on 17 dropped him down to -1 for the day, leaving him in a tie for 21st to start the final round. It will be a matter of if the South Korean can putt well enough to put a low score together because the rest of his game is there. He is ranked 11th in the field in strokes gained around the green (+0.91) and 13th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.84) and tee to green (+2.48).
🚨 Sungjae Im chip-in ☝️ @SungjaeTracker
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) July 5, 2024
$9,000+
Favorite Play: I refrained from playing Luke Clanton last week and again in the regular DFS contests this week, and I have lived to regret it both times. This young man is a bonafide stud who has a bright future on the PGA Tour after his collegiate days at Florida State are over. He is the fourth-best player through three rounds in strokes gained from tee to green (+3.42) and has had back-to-back days of modest -4 under-par scores. At this point, it's time to jump on the bandwagon and see where it takes us.
Other Options: Sepp Straka
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Adam Svensson had a good thing going through the first two rounds after shooting 64--67 in bogey-free fashion before a rough +1 over round on Saturday moved him back to T36 to start the final round. The Canadian has a solid resume at TPC Deere Run, having never finished worse than T24 in three starts. More importantly, he has shown comfortability on the greens which is not normally his strong suit (averaging +0.79 strokes gained putting over his three previous starts).
Other Options: Kevin Yu, Seamus Power, Ben Griffin
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Jhonattan Vegas is a few more made putts away from shooting a low number at TPC Deere Run. He is ranked sixth in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.20) and 8th in strokes gained tee to green (+2.62). He posted a -7 under, 64 in round two even with losing -0.69 strokes on the greens, and his history around TPC Deere Run is solid.
Eagle 🦅 has landed for @JhonattanVegas at hole 10 to move up to 5th place now sitting at -14. #JDC2024 #PryChip pic.twitter.com/SBiTjz78lY
— Prymus Chip (@PrymusChip) July 6, 2024
Other Options: Andrew Novak, Hayden Springer, J.J. Spaun
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Trace Crowe is putting on a ball-striking clinic through three rounds, as the PGA Tour rookie is ranked second in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.38) and ninth in strokes gained tee to green (+2.61). The former Auburn Tiger is also averaging a completely ridiculous 90.7% GIR (greens in regulation). Opportunities, like he has tomorrow, are crucial for someone trying to keep their card for next season. His final-round performance has not been good in his limited starts this year, but if there was any time to jump on him, now seems like the time.
Other Options: Joshua Creel
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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