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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 16 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weather heating up across MLB, so are the offenses. Just take Friday night, for example, when five grand slams were hit in one day and five teams scored more than eight runs. This is about the time of year we start to see pitchers get dead arms ahead of the All-Star break, and hitters are taking advantage.
Players like Jose Miranda, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jonathan India are exceptionally hot right now, but will it last? Just because these players are at the head of the class for this week's waiver wire doesn't mean the production will continue post All-Star break. Diving deep into their performances should tell a better story.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver-wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend and deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
Nate Lowe, 1B - Texas Rangers
Nate Lowe's batting numbers looks video-game-esque after the calendar turned from June to July. He is hitting .364/.417/.909 during that span and half of his hits have been home runs. What's driving the sudden power surge? For one, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has gone up every month and now sits at .333 for July. In addition, 66% of his fly balls have gone for home runs this month, which is likely to crash down soon.
Nate Lowe has more 2-run dingers today than the Padres have hits pic.twitter.com/cMSkeqSq5X
— Al Scott (@AlScott1998) July 3, 2024
In reality, Lowe's power should be nowhere near what he is showing recently. His slugging percentage on the season is .396, but his expected slugging percentage is just .350, according to Statcast data. His hard-hit rate is down. Lowe's barrel rate is down, and he is hitting way more balls on the ground this year. Buyer beware for sure on Lowe this weekend despite the hot start to the month.
Jose Miranda, 1B/3B - Minnesota Twins
After Friday, that's now 10 hits in 10 straight at-bats for Jose Miranda. A player can't be more on fire than he is this past week. Clearly, however, that is unsustainable and not the reason he is worth a second look before you put in a massive waiver bid this week. Miranda's biggest issue is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). At .335, it is a full 100 points better than it was last season.
Miranda's strikeout rate has gone down this season considerably, so that is worth nothing. However, his Statcast numbers show he should have a batting average more than 30 points below what he currently has. In addition, Miranda's expected slugging rate is 50 points below his season number. There are a lot of things to like and a lot of improvements Miranda has made this year, but no one needs to pay for a hit every time up to the plate.
Kyle Higashioka, C - San Diego Padres
If you look in the dictionary under "gets lucky with fly balls," you will have Kyle Higashioka from the last month or so. He is hitting 50% fly balls, and that's a good thing for power generation, but there is a catch. Higashioka has a 25.7% HR/FB Rate, which is more than 10 percentage points ahead of his career average.
Kyle Higashioka in his last 20 games:
1.125 OPS
.787 SLG
9 HR
22 RBI pic.twitter.com/Cwsx92B7So— Sammy Levitt (@SammyLev) July 6, 2024
Higashioka has gotten so lucky with the fly balls, as a matter of fact, that his expected slugging is now 50 points above what it should be. He also hit an unsustainable 1.131 OPS in June with an .804 slugging percentage for the entire month. No one expects he will all of a sudden turn into Mike Piazza this year, but there are red flags that the home-run barrage may stop soon for the San Diego Padres catcher.
Michael Mercado, SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Michael Mercado, a former second-round pick in 2017, now has one MLB start under his belt, and it was a very good one. In that game this week, Mercado threw six innings, allowed just one run, and struck out five batters. I have nothing bad to say about Mercado's start (although the .133 BABIP was fluky), but it's not a guarantee of future success by any stretch.
Kyle Schwarber moved Michael Mercado to the front of the handshake line after his first major league win 👏
— Fanatics Sportsbook (@FanaticsBook) July 3, 2024
Mercado is an older prospect to make his first MLB appearance at age 25. Mercado has really only had success in the minor leagues this season, with his 1.71 ERA in AAA over 27 innings. In each of his last five stops in the minors, Mercado had at least a 4.43 ERA and his walks were always out of hand. He might just be a short-term rental until Spencer Turnbull or Taijuan Walker can return to the rotation.
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