Fantasy Football Draft Targets and Avoids - AFC/NFC East

The fantasy season is just around the corner with NFL training camps just three weeks away. Plenty of teams were active in free agency and the draft, upgrading the talent on their roster. Understanding the new personnel (and coaching changes) can help fantasy managers start preparing for the season.

Here at RotoBaller, we will be running a season preview looking at each team in the AFC and NFC and identifying a player to target or avoid given their ADP throughout the summer. Identifying values (or avoiding landmines) can yield huge dividends during the fantasy season.

There are plenty of exciting teams and players for fantasy in the AFC and NFC East in 2024, so identifying the right players to draft can provide a big edge in fantasy. Below, you’ll find the players to target and avoid in the East divisions next year.

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Dallas Cowboys

Target: Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott is one of the best quarterback values in fantasy this year, coming off the board as the QB9 with an ADP of 95.6. This is the same Dak Prescott that has at least 4,000 passing yards and at least 30 passing touchdowns in each of his last three seasons with at least 16 games played (2019, 2021, and 2023). Since 2019, Prescott has three seasons with at least 20.0 fantasy points per game, even if we throw out the 2020 season where he broke his ankle after averaging 27.7 fantasy points per game over the first five weeks of the season.

There is no reason to expect anything different for Prescott in 2024. His top-3 target-earners (CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Brandin Cooks) are back. The biggest losses in this passing game are Michael Gallup (34 receptions on 57 targets for 418 yards and two touchdowns) and Tony Pollard (55 receptions for 311 yards). He finished as the QB4 in fantasy points per game last season with 20.7 PPG (minimum 12 games played).

Prescott may be getting discounted for the losses in front of him on the offensive line with Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz finding themselves on new teams. Dallas filled those gaps through the draft, selecting tackle Tyler Guyton in the first round and guard (who will play center) Cooper Beebe in the third round. It also bears noting that Prescott was the best quarterback in the NFL against pressure last season (61.5% completion percentage for 1,338 yards and nine touchdowns and three interceptions).

Five snaps of Dak Prescott throwing quick game against the Patriots. Just for fun. pic.twitter.com/3cFk8jvzDQ

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 4, 2023

Typically, we want to target rushing quarterbacks in fantasy, but Prescott has a reasonable ADP for a quarterback who has had his level of success as a passer in fantasy. He’s one of the few non-rushing quarterbacks who has 20-point weekly potential.

Avoid: Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle was solid in a reserve role in 2023, totaling 89 carries for 361 yards and 17 receptions for 144 yards with four total touchdowns. There was a time when it seemed like Dowdle (after he signed a one-year contract) would be the biggest beneficiary from Tony Pollard's departure, likely competing with a rookie and Deuce Vaughn for the backfield next season.

Then, the Cowboys brought back Ezekiel Elliott and Dowdle’s role diminished before our eyes.

Zeke got far more work than expected in his lone season with the Patriots thanks to an injury to Rhamondre Stevenson. He wasn’t very efficient (career-low 3.5 yards per carry), but he did put up solid volume stats (184 carries for 642 yards and three rushing touchdowns with 51 receptions for 313 yards and two receiving touchdowns). Elliott will likely return to Dallas to take away the high-volume touches (red zone and targets) from Dowdle, who will likely grind between the 20s.

There is also the chance that Dallas could dip into free agency again after teams cut down their roster with several productive veterans like Samaje Perine and Khalil Herbert expected to be on the chopping block.

Dowdle’s price tag in drafts (RB43, 140.6 ADP) isn’t a deal breaker, but it is hard to see a path to him paying off the price in a major way without handling the high-value touches within this offense.

Philadelphia Eagles

Target: A.J. Brown

DeVonta Smith had a strong season in 2023, but this passing attack still goes through A.J. Brown. Brown averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game last season, finishing with 158 targets, 106 receptions, 1,456 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. He also had a record-breaking stretch of production from Weeks 3-8 last season, posting six straight weeks with at least six receptions and 127 receiving yards while scoring five touchdowns in six games.

Whatever AJ Brown is made out of, it’s not anything the rest of humans are made of. What in the world????!?!? pic.twitter.com/SV9LOBpMLP

— Anand Nanduri (@NanduriNFL) October 29, 2023

In two seasons with Philadelphia, Brown is averaging 151.5 targets, 97 receptions, 1,476 yards, and nine touchdowns. He’s finished as an All-Pro in both seasons and remains one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL after the catch. Brown is firmly in the prime of his career, which means none of his production should be dipping. He’s been a top-10 fantasy receiver in three of the last four seasons.

Drafting Brown won’t be cheap in fantasy as he’s currently going off the board as the WR6 with an ADP of 9.0. We have seen the veteran wide receiver sustain WR1 production for stretches and 2024 could be the year he finishes as the WR1 overall, especially with Kellen Moore taking over as the team’s offensive coordinator.

Avoid: Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley’s ADP (RB6, 20.7 ADP) makes a lot of sense. The veteran running back has long been a weapon as a rusher and receiver out of the backfield and now joins an Eagles offense that has little competition behind him and one of the best offensive lines in football. Barkley seems like a lock to once again surpass 275 opportunities (carries and targets) in 2024. So, why is he an avoid?

Barkley overcame an awful offensive line and abysmal quarterback situation in 2023 to finish as the RB7 in fantasy points per game (18.8). However, he was fed targets as the team’s most explosive playmaker and was the focal point of the offense, especially in the red zone. Barkley now joins a team that has two legitimate passing options (Brown and Smith), a solid receiving tight end (Dallas Goedert), and one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL.

Jalen Hurts is the crux of the issue when it comes to believing in Barkley in 2024. Since 2021, Hurts has targeted the running back just 246 times, which is a bottom-10 total. Historically, Hurts will forego a checkdown opportunity to gain his yards on the ground. There is also the issue of converting red-zone opportunities to touchdowns. The Eagles running backs had 17 carries inside the 5-yard line last season and scored five total touchdowns. Hurts accounted for 16 attempts (mostly from the 1-yard line) and scored 13 times.

The loss of Jason Kelce may mean less tush-push touchdowns for Hurts, but that is purely speculative given how dominant that play has been for the Eagles offense over the last two seasons. Targets and touchdowns are key to skill-position production in fantasy and there is a chance that Barkley sees both go down dramatically in his new setting.

New York Giants

Target: Daniel Jones

On the surface, Daniel Jones’ production was awful in 2023 before suffering an ACL tear in Week 9. Jones had 909 passing yards and two touchdowns with six interceptions and 40 carries for 206 yards and a touchdown in six games. Even with the abysmal production, he did finish as the QB1 in fantasy in Week 2 against the Cardinals, scoring 31.7 fantasy points. Unfortunately, he had four weeks with fewer than 8.0 fantasy points.

All of Daniel Jones' 25 throws of 20+ air yards last season

22 of which were Big Time Throws (BTT)

Here, BTT are throws w/ 20+ air yards and 3 or less yards of target separation at the time of the pass

The first 22 passes are BTT pic.twitter.com/MDtotwz60G

— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) August 8, 2023

It is important to note that few quarterbacks operated in a worse offensive environment than Jones in 2023. The team’s big acquisition (Darren Waller) struggled to start the year before ultimately missing time with a hamstring injury. The team’s best wide receiver (Wan'Dale Robinson) was coming off an ACL tear. Saquon Barkley sprained his ankle in Week 2, which cost him three games. The offensive line was abysmal once again.

The Giants spent the offseason trying to make sure that Jones would be in an offense that can succeed. Sure, Barkley walked in free agency, but the team added a solid running back (Devin Singletary) and drafted an explosive pass-catching back (Tyrone Tracy Jr.) on the last day of the draft. The Giants poured money into the offensive line in free agency and drafted a top-10 receiver (Malik Nabers) and a fourth-round tight end (Theo Johnson) to add talent to the passing attack.

All signs point to Jones being ready in Week 1 in 2024 and he will step into arguably the best offensive situation of his career. Jones was a top-10 quarterback in fantasy just two seasons ago (QB9) with bad receiving options thanks to efficiency and his rushing upside.

He could crush his QB27 (ADP: 197.2) price in 2024.

Avoid: Malik Nabers

I understand the hype around Malik Nabers. He’s coming off a prolific collegiate career at LSU that saw him amass 189 receptions for 3,003 yards and 21 touchdowns in just three seasons. He was a top-10 pick and landed in an offense where he will step in and automatically be the team’s WR1. It’s also an offense where we have seen wide receivers thrive.

That being said, the reason why Nabers is an avoid is due to his exorbitant ADP. Nabers is going off the board as the WR19 in fantasy drafts with an ADP of 26.1. While he isn’t the most expensive rookie receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr., WR9), that is still an extremely high price to pay for a rookie who has logged zero snaps in the NFL.

The success of rookie wide receivers in recent seasons undoubtedly has pushed players like Nabers and Harrison into the top-3 rounds in fantasy drafts. But none of those players were going as high as this and were more middle-to-late-round passing options.

Nabers is going ahead of players we know can produce at a top-15 level in fantasy (and have better quarterbacks) like DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, and Cooper Kupp. We can expect Nabers to see a healthy level of volume as a rookie, but projecting him instantly as a top-20 wide receiver based on ADP seems a tad over the top given his team situation.

Fantasy managers shouldn’t be completely fading Nabers in the third round since there is always a chance he could be a gamebreaker in fantasy. However, there are far more paths to him failing with plenty of other attractive fantasy producers where he is going in drafts.

Washington Commanders

Target: Jayden Daniels

Once again, rushing is the skeleton key to the quarterback position. And no quarterback was as dynamic as a rusher as Jayden Daniels during his two seasons at LSU. Daniels carried the ball 221 times for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns during his two seasons with the Tigers. Of course, his development as a passer can’t be ignored, either. During his Heisman-winning 2023, Daniels completed 72.2% of his passes for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns with four interceptions in the SEC.

I’m already at 4 shares of Jayden Daniels in my rookie drafts!

I just can’t help myself!

Even with the risk involved, I’ve fallen in love 😍

pic.twitter.com/P8nv4vqJMc

— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) May 2, 2024

Of course, having two first-round wide receivers certainly helps passing production, but Daniels himself deserves credit for his growth. Daniels finished first in PFF grade (94.7) and first in deep passing (99.2) while finishing second in passing under pressure (82.2) and overall passing grade (94.7) last season. Daniels is a dynamic running quarterback who also can get the ball to his playmakers down the field.

Of course, there are concerns about Daniels translating to the NFL. The offensive line in Washington isn’t good and Daniels had a 20% pressure-to-sack ratio during his final season in college. Additionally, Daniels has been known to take big hits as a rusher, a practice he will certainly need to change at the NFL level.

Still, this is one of the best rushing quarterbacks we’ve seen at the college level stepping into an offense that has weapons at wide receiver. Daniels is being selected as the QB11 in fantasy drafts, which very well could be his floor if he can remain a dangerous rusher in the NFL.

Avoid: Austin Ekeler

There wasn’t a bigger bust at cost in fantasy last season than Austin Ekeler. The veteran running back played 14 games, totaling 179 carries for 628 yards and five touchdowns while adding 51 receptions (74 targets), 436 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown. Ekeler did suffer an injury but looked slow throughout the season on a Chargers offense that failed to meet expectations.  

Now Ekeler lands in Washington, behind a worse offensive line and with legitimate competition for touches with Jayden Daniels and incumbent starter Brian Robinson Jr. in the backfield. Ekeler’s RB40 price tag is a far cry from his first-round fantasy draft capital days, but even an RB40 price tag likely requires an injury to Robinson ahead of him on the depth chart.

Buffalo Bills

Target: Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel lands in Buffalo after two strong seasons in the Washington Commanders' passing attack. Over the last two seasons, Samuel averaged 91.5 targets, 63 receptions, 634.5 receiving yards, and four touchdowns per season. Buffalo wasted no time bringing Samuel as a free agent to supplement its receiving corps, which lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis during the offseason.

Some Curtis Samuel highlights, with an easter egg at 1:01 lol pic.twitter.com/PjslXW1kx6

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) March 10, 2024

That’s great news for Samuel as he joins a receiving group without an entrenched top option in the receiving group. He also reunites with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who was able to maximize his skill set during their time together in Carolina. In 2020, Samuel had 97 targets, 77 receptions, 851 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. He also added 41 carries for 200 yards and two rushing scores that season.

Based on ADP, the expectation is that Dalton Kincaid (TE5, ADP: 52.4) or Keon Coleman (WR47, ADP: 77.6) are going to be the top target-earners in the offense. However, it seems far more likely that Samuel (WR50, ADP: 92.2) emerges as the top target- earner in this offense. That, combined with his ability to impact the game as a rusher, makes Samuel a fantastic value and an inexpensive way to get a piece of Buffalo’s offense.

Avoid: Keon Coleman

The Bills drafted Keon Coleman with the first pick of the 2024 second round. Over the last two seasons with Michigan State and Florida State, Coleman accrued 108 receptions 1,456 yards, and 18 touchdowns. Coleman started strong with Florida State in 2023 (nine receptions for 122 yards and three touchdowns against LSU in Week 1) but had just one more game with more than 100 receiving yards.

Questions developed throughout the predraft process about Coleman’s explosiveness and ability to separate at the NFL level after the big-bodied WR converted just 10 of his 30 contested catch opportunities in 2023. His performance in the 40-yard dash (4.61) didn’t help, but a strong gauntlet drill at least gave teams hope.

The expectation for many is that Coleman will step into this offense and immediately produce, taking on most of the targets vacated by Diggs and Davis. However, interviews with the head coach and general manager throughout the offseason indicate they need to see more development from Coleman.

timeline of GM/OC comments on Keon Coleman since he was drafted:

GM Brandon Beane (April 27): “We’ll bring him along. He’ll have to learn the offense. We’ll see how many spots, can he just learn the X, can he learn multiple spots, that may not be right away, but he’ll help us a…

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 1, 2024

Coleman is the first wide receiver off the board in Buffalo’s offense (WR47), but he may not even earn a full-time role to start the season.

Miami Dolphins

Target: Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert is being drafted as the RB28 just one season after finishing as the RB4 in fantasy points per game (17.9) in 15 games. Mostert had 209 carries for 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 25 receptions for 175 yards and three touchdowns. He had five weeks with 20+ fantasy points, including a 45.2-point output in Week 3.

Sure, there are injury concerns with Mostert (three seasons with 15+ games played in 12 years) and age, but his role in Miami’s run game cannot be overstated. In two seasons with the Dolphins, Mostert has averaged 195 carries and 37 targets. Others are worried that De'Von Achane and 2024 rookie Jaylen Wright will eat into his workload from last season.

Jeff Wilson on IR

Hello 10th Round Raheem Mostert.

pic.twitter.com/AUXQGLXDon

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) August 31, 2023

Even with those concerns, Mostert has two straight seasons beating his current price in fantasy drafts. It is highly likely that Mostert once again paces this backfield in touches due to his blend of size and speed. Achane is extremely explosive and can break fantasy, but struggled to stay healthy and was utilized as a change-of-pace back (if the concept even exists in Miami) in his rookie year.

Mostert is a top-10 fantasy-scoring running back who is available at an RB3 price. He’s worth the gamble and is an exceptional target, especially in Zero RB builds.

Avoid: Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa once again started the season hot before regressing down the stretch. From Weeks 1-9, Tagovailoa had four 20+ point performances in fantasy. After the team’s Week 10 bye, he had zero such performances. That culminated in a QB19 finish in fantasy points per game (16.7).

The QB's 2024 price tag isn’t unreasonable (QB15) given his nuclear upside with an array of explosive weapons. However, the reason for concern comes from his struggles under pressure combined with Miami’s losses along the offensive line. According to PFF, Tagovailoa is an exceptional passer in a clean pocket (93.6 grade, 75.5% completion percentage). However, he becomes one of the worst passers in the NFL (51.8 grade, 39.8% completion percentage) when he’s pressured.

The Dolphins let Robert Hunt and Connor Williams walk in free agency, which will mean more interior pressure for Tagovailoa in 2024. Their best offensive lineman (Terron Armstead) can’t stay on the field and his backup (2024 first-round pick Jordan Morgan) is a solid prospect who needs time to grow at the NFL level.

The Dolphins offensive line is worse, which could be a big problem for Tagovailoa given his struggles under pressure. His QB15 price tag isn’t ridiculous given his offense, but it still can go sideways in a hurry if Tagovailoa can’t figure out how to pass in less-than-ideal situations.  

New England Patriots

Target: Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry has never really hit on his awesome potential since joining the NFL; however, he’s been a solid tight end in the NFL and fantasy for most of his career. Since joining the Patriots, Henry has amassed 195 targets, 133 receptions, 1,531 receiving yards, and 17 touchdowns. Henry has finished inside the top-20 tight ends in two of his three seasons. He’s currently going off the board as the TE19 in fantasy drafts.

The reason for optimism regarding Henry is that the new offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt, loves to utilize the tight-end position. During Van Pelt’s four seasons with the Browns, the tight-end position averaged 145 targets per season. In total, the tight-end position earned a 26% target share in the Browns offense over the last four seasons.

Henry not only enters 2024 with uncertainty in target competition at the receiver position but with little meaningful competition at his position. Austin Hooper will earn his share of targets as the second tight end in the offense given his familiarity with Van Pelt’s offense, but Henry will be on the field most.

It doesn’t take much for a tight end to score in the top 10 in fantasy, and given the importance of the tight end in this offense, Henry has an excellent chance to do it.

Avoid: None

The Patriots don’t have any egregious values in fantasy drafts since most expect the offense to be bad for fantasy in 2024.

Rhamondre Stevenson is going off the board as the RB20 with an 82.2 ADP, but he is healthy in a run-heavy offense with his primary competition (Ezekiel Elliott) leaving via free agency. The pass-catching option (Antonio Gibson) is being drafted as the RB52 at pick 165.

The top receiving option in this offense is rookie Ja'Lynn Polk being selected as the WR66, just ahead of Demario Douglas (WR72), Javon Baker (WR83), and Kendrick Bourne (WR95). Javon Baker is the one that seems least likely to hit this season (especially if Bourne is healthy quickly after tearing his ACL), but that price tag isn’t going to destroy a fantasy draft.

Even the quarterback (Drake Maye) is going at a realistic QB26 price. The Patriots can start the year with Jacoby Brissett, but will need to get a look at their 2024 first-round pick at some point.

New York Jets

Target: Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson is an exceptional wide receiver talent who has been destroyed by quarterback play through his first two seasons. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Wilson finished 2023 seventh in target share (30.1%), fourth in targets (168), and first in routes run (666). Unfortunately, he was 76th in target accuracy, 54th in yards per route run (1.56), and 87th in yards per target (6.2).

14 Garrett Wilson targets but they be looking like this pic.twitter.com/ckFOdKHQKo

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 6, 2023

No quarterback in the NFL will have a greater leap in quarterback play than Wilson, with Aaron Rodgers healthy and ready to play after missing all of 2023 (minus four snaps) with an Achilles injury. Wilson earned 168 targets with bad quarterbacks last season and we have seen Rodgers pump targets to the most talented players in his offense.

Wilson’s price in fantasy drafts (WR8, ADP: 10.7) is exceptionally high and requires a fair amount of projection. But it is a fair price to pay for a wide receiver who has a WR1 overall finish in his range of outcomes with better quarterback play.

Avoid: Aaron Rodgers

It seems odd to list Wilson as the target but Rodgers as an avoid, but here we are. The quick injury last season and subsequent bad quarterback play have inflated Rodgers’ worth in fantasy given how crucial he is to the offense (we think). It wasn’t long ago that we were wondering if Rodgers still had “it” in fantasy.

According to PlayerProfiler.com, Rodgers was 23rd in yards per attempt (6.8), 21st in expected points added (45.2), and 26th in clean pocket completion percentage (67.4%). Not only that, but the Packers were in the bottom half of the NFL in pace of play given Rodgers’ control of the offense and use of audibles. Rodgers was the QB13 in total fantasy points (251.2), but 29th in fantasy points per game (14.8).

Add those questions to a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, and you have a player who is hard to trust in fantasy, even at a QB20 price tag.

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