RADIO
Welcome back to another week of Unlikely Aces. We have officially reached July, and teams have eclipsed the halfway mark of the season. We are flying toward the All-Star break at breakneck speed, and we're nearing now-or-never time for fantasy managers who find themselves in the bottom third of their league standings.
Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory, or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!
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Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
43% Rostered
Olson made 18 starts for the Tigers in 2023 after being promoted from Triple-A pretty early on, and he's up to 16 starts in 2024, making his stat lines pretty easy to compare. This year, the 24-year-old is striking out a few less batters. His ERA has dropped a good amount down to 3.32, and the underlying numbers say that's a pretty sustainable number.
The right-hander has increased his changeup usage by 7%. While that has surprisingly dropped his strikeout rate, the other effects of this change, along with improved command, have yielded fantastic results. Olson has increased his ground-ball rate by more than 8%, he's allowing half as many barrels and home runs, and his hard-contact percentage is down to 32.2%. He's not dominating, but he's avoiding the crooked numbers time and time again.
It's clear we have a strong floor for Olson to rely on now, and here comes the better news: There may be more strikeout upside on the way!
Ho hum, another Reese Olson quality start:
6 IP | 2 ER | 5 H | 3 BB | 9 K | 98 pitches/63 strikes pic.twitter.com/uPsvkXYtmp
— Calico Joe (@CalicoJoeMLB) June 30, 2024
Olson has thrown three straight quality starts to end June, and he racked up a combined 20 strikeouts with just three walks and four earned runs over the 18.1 innings. It appears as though the youngster is starting to get more aggressive with his breaking balls, and the results could be a K/9 rate closer to 9.5 rather than 8.5.
Overall, there's tons to love here in terms of consistency, upside, and continuous improvement from the young righty. If for some reason your league mates are sleeping and ownership percentages suggest that half of you may be in that scenario, go scoop up Olson now before it's too late.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
28% Rostered
Manaea has quietly started to find his groove over the past month, and his last four starts have been uncharacteristically consistent. Walks remain an issue for the 32-year-old, but outside of some free passes, the first-year Met has been reliable in June. He has 21 strikeouts over his last 22.2 combined innings while allowing just one homer and five earned runs.
A very low BABIP and a relatively-high LOB% suggest that this stretch has been a bit lucky for Manaea, but building confidence for the aging veteran could only mean good things for now. While the southpaw has limited fly balls a bit in his past handful of appearances, his season-long number is still the highest of his career at 43%. A raised hard-contact rate but a lower HR/FB rate than previous seasons suggests some more long balls could be on the way.
Manaea has switched largely to a cutter/sinker combination approach this year, and while the numbers for now suggest that improvements are being made, the underlying metrics tell a dangerous story. With the lefty's new fly-ball tendencies in mind, I would only consider starting the former ace in a cavernous ballpark, perhaps with wind blowing in, that will hold long fly balls.
I'm not ready to say that a Manaea blowup is definitely coming, but there's not enough to suggest he's made real improvements to his 4.5-4.9 ERA ways. In the deepest of leagues, play the matchups carefully. Otherwise, you can leave the southpaw on the waiver wire.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Guardians
7% Rostered
His overall numbers this season are nowhere near ace-worthy, but Carrasco's last three outings are providing a glimmer of hope for the 37-year-old veteran. While still facing strict pitch counts, the right-hander threw two quality starts in that span, with long balls being the only hiccup on his stat lines. Carrasco struck out 17 hitters through the 17 innings pitched, walking three hitters and letting up four homers, yet only allowing six earned runs.
It's been the reliance on his slider and changeup that seem to be the key behind an improved strikeout rate of late, and a hard- hit rate below 30% with a 45.5% ground-ball rate are both strong metrics for how Carrasco will need to pitch moving forward to remain effective.
Carlos Carrasco, Dirty 87mph Changeup. 🍪 pic.twitter.com/4woBQQMZPb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 2, 2024
Still, there's so much working against him in terms of fantasy value, including a lack of strikeouts, low pitch counts, and the volatility that he can let up a crooked number in an instant. I would need to be in a very deep league with loads of pitching trouble to consider starting Carrasco. Regardless, this stretch is worth monitoring in case he's found something that could help him contribute to what is a very good Guardians team. Maybe the 37-year-old isn't quite cooked after all.
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