RADIO
For the third consecutive week on the PGA Tour, players will face a breakneck sprint to 20-under and beyond. Despite some less-than-stellar fields through the years, TPC Deere Run has spent each of the last eight seasons as one of the easiest 10 courses on the PGA Tour and is one of only three courses on the schedule with a sub-70 scoring average in that time.
This combination of easier scoring conditions and the absence of many of the game's preeminent stars has made the John Deere Classic one of the premier breakout spots for golf's brightest up-and-comers. From Jordan Spieth's magical hole out in 2013 to Bryson DeChambeau's back-nine 30 in 2017 and Sepp Straka's dramatic fight for 59 last year, there have been many memorable moments down the stretch at Deere Run. This week, we'll once again pit a few of the game's brightest starlets with an established roster of short-course ringers. Can a Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton, or Neal Shipley carry on the Quad City tradition of crowning another future star? Or will one of the many Deere Run vets capture another one for the old guard?
This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on the TPC Deere Run and the 2024 John Deere Classic!
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The Golf Course
TPC Deere Run - Par 71; 7,289 yards
Past Champions
- 2023 - Sepp Straka (-21) over B. Todd/A. Smalley
- 2022 - J.T. Poston (-21) over C. Bezuidenhout/E. Grillo
- 2021 - Lucas Glover (-189 over R. Moore/K. Na
- 2019 - Dylan Frittelli (-21) over Russell Henley
- 2018 - Michael Kim (-27) over S. Ryder, J. Dahmen, F. Molinari, and B. Burgoon
Deere Run by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):
- Average Fairway Width -- 38.4 yards; sixth widest on the PGA Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 290.2 yards; 15th highest on Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 69.6%; sixth highest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.40; 10th highest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.046); fourth easiest on Tour
We talked in detail last week about how the sheer forgiveness of Detroit GC's fairways provided as simple of a driving course as there is to be had on the PGA Tour. With an average width of 38.4 yards, however, TPC Deere Run is one of just seven courses on the schedule with landing areas off of the tee that exceed the breadth of what we saw last week.
With fairways as wide as Vidanta Vallarta (and Par 4s/5s measuring 40 yards shorter on average), TPC Deere Run presents players with as non-strenuous of a driving test as we'll see all year. Normally, landing areas this forgiving would point us in the direction of players looking to employ a bomb-and-gouge approach (a la Vidanta, Detroit, Craig Ranch, etc.).
However, there is one key difference between these bomber-favored venues and TPC Deere Run: the penalty in play for off-line tee shots. Deere Run features the third-highest rough penalty and the 10th-highest overall missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour -- and players who do miss into the 4" thick Kentucky Bluegrass will see their expected scores jump nearly half a shot above players who keep their ball in the short grass.
This stark dichotomy between drives in the fairway and drives off of it have turned the screws on many of the Tour's premier power players attempting to carpet bomb the midwestern countryside. Instead, the John Deere Classic has provided a haven for the likes of Ryan Moore, Lucas Glover, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker, all players who rely on precision over power off of the tee.
In fact, each of the last seven champions in the Quad Cities have rated out above field average in driving accuracy (five of whom finished inside the top 10 for the week). While Driving, in general, hasn't been nearly as predictive as other metrics we'll discuss in future sections (accounting for just 16% of average strokes gained by top 10 finishers), there is no question what profile has proven more consistent through the years. Keeping the ball in play is of the utmost importance -- you're scoring clubs will have plenty of time to make up the difference in firepower out of the blocks.
Deere Run by the Numbers (Approach):
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 72.2%; seventh highest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (+0.026); fifth easiest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- 125-150 yards (accounts for 20.0% of historical approach shots)
- 150-175 yards (18.9%)
- 75-125 yards (20.6%)
Speaking of scoring clubs, wedge play has proven to be the clearest through-line for success around TPC Deere Run. Nearly two-thirds of historical approach shots have come from inside 175 yards here, and one look at the list of past champions through the years here should give you a clear indication of the importance of a strong wedge game.
Steve Stricker completed the JDC three-peat from 2009-2011 whilst leading the PGA Tour in proximity from <125 yards on five separate occasions. Zach Johnson won two Major Championships on the back of his elite driving accuracy and acumen from inside of 150 yards, and Jordan Spieth, while not as reliable as Stricker or ZJ with the driver, historically remains unquestionably one of the best wedge players of his generation.
Since 2018, only two players have managed to finish inside of the top five at the JDC without gaining strokes on approach (Adam Schenk in 2021; Dylan Frittelli in 2019), and each had to log career-best weeks with their short games to manage that position. Proximity/Strokes Gained splits from inside 150 yards will each be among the most highly weighted metrics in my modeling this week -- as will more general iron metrics like SG: Approach and Birdie Chances Created.
Deere Run by the Numbers (Around the Greens):
- Scrambling Percentage -- 58.6%; 1.1% above Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.027); ninth easiest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.022); eighth toughest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.005); 14th toughest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.007); Ninth toughest on Tour
While the thick rough around the greens at TPC Deere Run does make chipping one of the more difficult propositions facing players this week, there isn't much evidence to suggest that around the green play should be an even remotely essential aspect of your player assessments this week. Only two of the last seven champions here have ranked inside the top 40 that week in SG: ARG, while four players in that time have sat within a stroke of the field average.
As with any week, it is important to have enough of an aptitude around the greens to not tank your chances every time you're forced to chip, as only one player since 2016 has managed to finish inside the top 10 whilst losing more than 2 strokes for the week around the greens. However, as the best ball-strikers in this field could near Green in Regulation rates of 85%, the old adage in these birdie parties has never rung truer than this week:
"There are two things in this world that don't last: dogs chasing cars and pros putting for par."
Deere Run by the Numbers (Putting):
- Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. feet
- Agronomy -- Bentgrass
- 3-Putt Percentage: 2.7% (0.3% below Tour Average)
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (+0.011); Third easiest on Tour
As was the battle cry on last week's betting card, putting will be as essential of a tool around the TPC Deere Run as anything we've talked about to date. Winners here have averaged a whopping 5.5 strokes gained on the greens and only five of 71 players since 2017 have managed to finish in the top 10 at the JDC whilst losing strokes on the greens.
The good news for some of the game's more... inconsistent putters is that TPC Deere Run won't provide nearly the same sort of putting test as we've seen in the last few weeks on the schedule. The addition of poa annua on the greens at Detroit and River Highlands made them much more difficult than the bentgrass birdie parties we're accustomed to in the midwest/northeast -- whereas Deere Run's pure bentgrass surfaces routinely rank as some of the easiest to navigate all year.
As a result, historically poor putters such as Kevin Yu, Emiliano Grillo, and Dylan Frittelli have putted their way onto the first page of the leaderboard. However, as we alluded to in earlier sections, Deere Run has still very much been a haven for the game's preeminent plodders -- particularly those who can heat up on the greens. From Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson in the 2010s to Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd, and Adam Schenk in recent iterations, aptitude with the flat stick remains one of the most important ingredients in this week's winning formula. I'll be weighing long-term bentgrass putting as the second most important metric in my modeling after wedge play and would need a very compelling ball-striking profile to even consider backing a player who hasn't proven moderately capable of spiking on the greens.
Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):
- Wedge play; particularly looking at Strokes Gained/Proximity/Good Shot splits from inside 150 yards
- General iron metrics: SG: Approach, Birdie Chances Created
- Historical putting splits on Bentgrass Greens
- Driving Accuracy -- specifically measured by stats like Good Drive Percentage, Fairways Gained, and Past acumen on similarly positional driving tests
- Strokes Gained: Easy Scoring Conditions
- Stroked Gained: Shorter Courses
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Sungjae Im
Sungjae Im finishes in style with a 41-foot birdie putt on 18! 🔥
📺: CNBC pic.twitter.com/5KjfEbA7Ao
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) June 23, 2024
Although Patrick Cantlay's John Deere Classic debut off of two consecutive top-five finishes will garner most of the attention this week, it is actually the field's second-highest-ranked player who has shown a more extensive run of lead-in form. Sungjae Im comes into his first "non-elevated" start since the Valspar Championship in March on the back of a third-place finish at the Travelers Championship (besting the aforementioned Cantlay), and four additional top 12 finishes coming at the Memorial Tournament, Charles Schwab Challenge, Wells Fargo Championship, and RBC Heritage.
In fact, outside of the Major Championships, you could argue Sungjae sits as one of the hottest commodities in the golfing world: ranking third in Birdie or Better Percentage over his last 24 rounds, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and sixth in Positional Driving. He's historically had his greatest success on the Tour's shorter, more accuracy-intensive setups (TPC Summerlin, Sedgefield, Harbour Town, PGA National), and he's coming into the week on the back of his best approach week (+5.1) in nearly 18 months (2023 Farmers Insurance Open).
Sungjae's driver remains as metronomic as it gets in the game of golf: gaining strokes in each of his last 10 starts, and his putting (although inconsistent to this point in the year) has still shown a profound ability to carry him to top finishes: gained at least 2.4 strokes in five of his six top 15 finishes this season. Sungjae also ranks as a top 20 putter in this field over the long-term on bentgrass greens, and in his last three forays on this surface (River Highlands, Muirfield Village, Colonial), Sungjae has gained a combined 9.5 shots to the field with his flat stick.
It seems like everything is finally coming together after a headache-inducing start to his 2024 campaign, and this course and field should give the young Korean fond memories of his last win in the fall of 2021: a swing season event on 7,100-yard TPC Summerlin. Given his recent form, we'll almost certainly have to pay a hefty price for the world No. 28, but in a field devoid of reliable options, I'd be more than comfortable paying anything in the 20-1 range for a player who I believe will one day count himself as one of the ten best players on the planet.
Daniel Berger
Daniel Berger with the excellent approach shot for a chance at a birdie.
📺:@Sentry_TOC on GOLF pic.twitter.com/IVYQVmxLI0
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 7, 2022
The cover boy of last week's betting article was a disappointment in Detroit, but if we get anywhere near the same 100-1 price tag on Daniel Berger this week, I'll be more than happy to jump back in for another shot. Berger was once again let down by an unreliable short game at the Rocket Mortgage, losing over a stoke and a half in two rounds on and around the greens, but his driver remained as reliable as it had ever been (missing just 3/28 fairways through those two rounds), and his short-iron play ranks as one of the most prolific weapons in any players toolkit this week.
Since the start of the 2024 season, Berger ranks eighth on the entire PGA Tour in Strokes Gained per shot from inside 150 yards. He sits in the 93rd Percentile for both Proximity to the Hole and Good Shot Percentage from 100-150 yards, and in three starts at the John Deere Classic, Berger has gained a combined 8.0 shots on approach in 12 competitive rounds.
Notably, Berger's putter has also found repeated success here in the Quad Cities, gaining a combined 5.2 strokes to the field in 12 rounds around Deere Run. Just a few weeks removed from recording his best tee-to-green performance in over seven years (+10.7 at the 2024 U.S. Open), if these putting trends can continue on these benign bentgrass complexes, it's clear that the framework is still there for Berger to recapture the form that allowed him to be a mainstay in the top 20 of the world rankings just a few years ago. I'm not giving up just yet -- especially at prices nearing triple digits on a positional, wedge-intensive golf course with just one top-20 player in attendance.
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