Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Outperforming Their Record - It's Not All About Dubs

The dog days of summer are here, and most leagues are past the halfway point of the fantasy baseball regular season. By this point, most managers can look around their leagues and identify the contenders and pretenders. For those managers who find themselves somewhere in the middle, finding value in fringe starting pitchers can be a key difference-maker down the stretch.

Particularly in categories-based leagues, pitchers who accrue a significant number of wins can somewhat falsely elevate their value and ranking, potentially masking mediocre ratios and strikeout numbers. More importantly for those combing the waiver wire, the opposite can also be true. Identifying pitchers whose ranking is bogged down by a relative dearth of wins can be a useful way to find value in free agency.

Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) highlights a stable of arms, available in most leagues, who are providing solid ratio and/or strikeout numbers despite a middling amount of wins. Despite not having much success in the wins column, these guys can provide significant value in points leagues, as well as supplementing ratio and strikeout needs in category leagues. Managers in need of pitching help may be lucky enough to score one of these free-agent adds before it is too late.

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Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays (55% Owned)

Bradley is an exciting, fun pitcher who garnered significant hype last year when he fireballed his way onto the MLB scene. At the young age of 23, the sky is the limit for Bradley. Unfortunately, the Rays have taken a significant step back this year. With that step back, Bradley's win opportunities have dwindled, holding a 2-4 record across nine starts in 2024.

Bradley leads with a wicked four-seam fastball, dialed in at an average of 96 mph and capable of approaching triple digits. He throws this pitch over 40% of the time, frequently letting it rise through the zone in a "high heat" fashion to blow by hitters. His off-speed repertoire is actually a little different in 2024 compared to 2023.

In 2024, he is throwing his splitter 27.9% of the time, up from 13.6% in 2023 when this pitch was more of an afterthought. That splitter has always been a strong pitch for Bradley, and he must be listening to a smart pitching coach recommending he bring it to the forefront of his repertoire. In 2024, his splitter holds a strong 33.9% Whiff% and 31.1% PutAway%.

Taj Bradley's 6th, 7th and 8th Ks.

Thru 3. 😲 pic.twitter.com/NDDMYReZEv

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 20, 2024

Bradley has always been able to amass strikeouts, and 2024 is no exception. With the slight tweak in his repertoire, his K% is sitting at a beautiful 29.6% mark in 2024, above his 28.5% career average. Interestingly, batters seem to be making more sweet spot contact against Bradley this year on the basis of a 15.1% Barrel%, up from 10.7% in 2023.

However, the exit velocity and strength of contact have been less this year with a 42.9% hard-hit%, down from 46.4% in 2023. One has to wonder if the increased splitters are the cause for softer contact, as last year Bradley threw a four-seamer and a cut fastball as his one-two punch, both faster than his splitter.

There are reasons why Bradley's ownership is sitting around a seemingly low 50%. His 3.81 ERA is decent, but his flamethrowing nature can open him up to hard hits. His FIP of 4.47 and xFIP of 3.44 are a bit challenging to put into context, but certainly there is some volatility there. Bradley did suffer a nine-ER blowup against the Orioles to start June.

Nonetheless, Bradley will contribute significantly to strikeout totals with the upside to hold above-average ratios through 2024. Consider certain matchups, such as the Orioles, as risky, but overall Bradley offers much more upside than he does risk, even if wins are limited by the Rays' overall squad. Add him confidently as an SP3/4 with the potential for ace-level strikeout contributions.

Jon Gray, Texas Rangers (45% Owned)

If the Rays have been a surprise flop this year, then the Rangers have been even more disappointing. Fresh off a World Series appearance in 2023, the Rangers currently sit in third place in the AL West with a 37-44 record. Injuries to Jacob deGrom and Josh Jung have certainly put a damper on things, but even with those two out, their current record is still a disappointment.

Wyatt Langford is underperforming relative to preseason expectations, as are Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia. There is still time for them to turn it around, but as things stand currently, win opportunities are much harder to come by in 2024 than 2023.

Nonetheless, Jon Gray is providing more value than one might expect from a pitcher owned at just a 45% clip. Gray has posted six outings this year in which he either shut out his opponent or limited them to just one ER. With a 3.77 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and 3.91 xFIP, Gray is currently pitching (at least in terms of ratios) at the level managers can reliably expect from him for the rest of the season. He can still suffer the occasional blowup, as evidenced by his recent outing against Baltimore (seeing a theme with the Orioles here...), but he is less volatile pitch-to-pitch than Bradley.

Gray has a fastball capable of dominance, clocking it at 94.9 mph on average in 2024. But his approach is not that of a "flamethrower." He has a near-even split between his fastball and slider this year, throwing the former 43.4% of the time and the latter 44.9% of the time. That slider percentage is significantly up from 2023 in which he threw the pitch 33.5% of the time.

Jon Gray already with five strikeouts through two innings

He had nine strikeouts in five innings in his last start#StraightUpTX pic.twitter.com/S0pf4FZvfV

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) April 16, 2024

In terms of strikeouts, it is hard to say the slight change in pitch frequency has really changed much. In 2023, Gray held a pedestrian 21.6% K% and he holds a nearly identical 21.4% K% in 2024. He has always limited walks and thereby damage throughout his career, and 2024 is no different with a top-50 BB% sitting at 6.1%.

Pay attention to matchups with Gray. His recent blowup with the Orioles could be blamed more on the incredible offense against him, but it was a significant blowup. Was his nine-ER outing against the Mets a few weeks ago due to the presence of Grimace or more an embodiment of his volatility?

Either way, Gray should be considered at least a full tier above a purely streaming pitcher. Smart managers keeping track of his opponents can roster and effectively use Gray for ratio stabilization with some strikeout output and (hopefully) some more wins if the Rangers can turn things around.

Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers (40% Owned)

While Tarik Skubal has deservedly been living his coming-out party in 2024, Olson has quietly been putting together a solid season for the Tigers. For many years, Detroit has been a haven for solid arms whose fantasy rankings are consistently bogged down by a lack of wins. The Tigers have watched the strong bats of J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos, and Justin Upton, amongst others, leave the organization for greener pastures, leading to many years of cobbled-together rosters of prospects and players past their prime.

For Olson, 2024 has embodied that vibe. He currently holds a 2-8 record across 15 starts. Across all pitchers with at least 10 starts and a sub-3.50 ERA, only Justin Steele has fewer wins than Olson in 2024. Olson has started four more games than Steele in 2024.

Olson, like Skubal in years past, has a lot of hidden value that can contribute to a squad in need of specific things. His ERA sits at a solid 3.35, backed by an inspiring 2.99 FIP. His current BABIP sits at .293 against a career average of .273. If anything, batters are having slightly more success on balls in play compared to the norm for Olson. A 6.6% BB% ranks Olson just outside the top 50, showing his ability to limit damage with extra baserunners.

Ho hum, another Quality Start for Reese Olson

6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. 93 pitches, 59 strikes. pic.twitter.com/T68Jkw92VI

— Calico Joe (@CalicoJoeMLB) May 25, 2024

Olson leads with an impressive 85 mph slider, currently holding an eye-popping 41.3% Whiff% in 2024. He throws the slider most often, but closely behind it is his 94 mph fastball as a nice one-two punch. His K% is slightly down in 2024, sitting at 20.7% from 24.4% in 2023. However, his CSW% is identical, 28.6% in both 2023 and 2024.

The slight downtick in strikeouts seems most likely to be "chance" or "noise" as opposed to a mechanical or velocity issue. Expect the strikeout numbers to increase. For managers who have a decent stable of wins on their existing roster, Olson is a no-brainer add for ratio stabilization and some strikeout upside across the remainder of 2024.

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs (40% Owned)

Outside of Shota Imanaga, one could pick nearly any Cubs starter for this article. Despite having similar win difficulties, for this article, Justin Steele is owned in >90% of leagues and Javier Assad just hit the IL. This leaves Taillon as the lone ranger in terms of being relatively available while flying under the radar due to a paucity of wins.

Taillon has started 12 games this year, accruing a 4-3 record over those starts. The most important disclaimer for Taillon is a well-known one: he should not be relied on to consistently provide meaningful strikeout numbers. He holds a middling 21.4% K% across his career, even lower in 2024 at just 18.3%.

That being said, he recently logged 10 Ks against the Mets and has logged five or more strikeouts in three other outings this year. Managers eyeing Taillon should allow strikeout upside to be a surprise, not an expectation.

Jameson Taillon

7 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 10 Ks, 15 Whiffs

Season ERA: 2.90

He limited hard contact today especially with his Cutter. A 80.4 MPH Avg Exit Velo, 35% Whiff%, 31% CSW%, and 62% Zone% is very Impressive!pic.twitter.com/IllCpOLNCC

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) June 22, 2024

But beyond that, Taillon does hold value in larger leagues and for those in need of some innings. His microscopic 5.5% BB% in 2024 showcases his ability to limit walks and thereby damage. That alone can be a useful contribution for those with WHIP as a scoring category. His current 2.90 ERA is good for a top-20 ranking across MLB. There will be regression, as evidenced by a 3.83 FIP, but even regressing to something like a 3.50 ERA would keep him in the top-75 rankings for that at year's end.

Taillon is not a dominant pitcher. Those in need of strikeouts specifically should look higher on this list. But managers will not be able to find a lower ERA in the free-agent pool. Even with some regression, Taillon seems positioned to contribute positively to ratios across 2024. If the Cubs flip a switch and wins follow, his ranking could rise even more. In shallow leagues, consider auditioning him in good streaming matchups. In deeper leagues, managers in need of starting pitcher help should grab him now.

Kyle Gibson, St. Louis Cardinals (35% Owned)

Admittedly, Gibson is the most "fringe" of all the fringe pitching adds discussed on this list. But those in deeper leagues could benefit from taking a closer look at what he is doing in The 'Lou this year. Across 15 starts in 2024, Gibson currently holds a 5-3 record, including a nice win at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in May and a solid six-strikeout victory against the Cubs in mid-June.

Gibson has never been a fireballer. He leads with a sinking fastball that sits around 90-91 mph, including an average velocity of 90.7 mph in 2024. He relies on pitch diversity to try to fool hitters. Statcast shows him to throw six different pitches. In order of decreasing frequency, he throws a sinking fastball, a sweeper, a cutter, a four-seam fastball, a changeup, and a curveball. This approach has been serviceable enough to afford Gibson an MLB career that has eclipsed a decade. If managers are superstitious, perhaps the graphic below will be convincing:

Kyle Gibson works every 3 years of the time, every time pic.twitter.com/kvkX1IZ08w

— Will Harris (@sandwich_pick) June 20, 2024

Currently, his ERA sits at 3.70 against a 4.18 FIP and 4.05 xFIP. While the FIP numbers do not provide much hope for a sub-3.50 ERA, they are not all that significantly higher than his current ERA. It seems very possible Gibson can end 2024 with a sub-4.00 ERA, which in deeper leagues can be much more useful than other, more volatile pitchers available at this ownership percentage. While his 8.8% Barrel% and 40.2% hard-hit% are not going to lead MLB (or even his team), they are above average and fit with his decent but not great ERA and FIP numbers.

The Cardinals currently sit at a pedestrian 41-39, better than most of the teams discussed above. Also, they play in a relatively weak NL Central. Although this article is about relatively small win totals, Gibson's squad provides more backing for win potential than the other names on this list, save perhaps the Rangers. He is unlikely to be a league-winner or a cause for disaster, but managers in deeper leagues should take a look at Gibson as a long-term add to provide the occasional Quality Start with some ratio upside.

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