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The wait is almost over, folks. As anticipation builds, UFC 303 promises to be an outstanding event that fans won't forget anytime soon. When discussing the main event, I would normally describe it as "highly anticipated," but we didn't have much time to prepare for it. With Conor McGregor out of the UFC 303 main event bout against Michael Chandler due to a broken toe, former UFC middleweight and current light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka have answered the call and agreed to step in and replace McGregor and Chandler. Former UFC light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill also fell off the card, and then the same thing happened to his opponent, Carlos Ulberg.
The new co-main event added to the card pits two-time featherweight title challenger against a fan favorite and a rising star, Diego Lopes. Also on the card, Anthony Smith is scheduled for a bout against Roman Dolidze. Smith stepped in as a replacement for Hill while Dolidze stepped up after injury forced Ulberg out of his scheduled UFC 303 bout. UFC 303 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. On the main card, there's also Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael "Venom" Page. There are some great matchups on the prelims as well, with Joe Pyfer taking on Marc-Andre Barriault and Cub Swanson taking on Andre Fili.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 on 06/29/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Pereira, $8500 - vs. Jiri Prochazka
As you all know by now, McGregor withdrew from his planned main event with Chandler, leading Pereira and Prochazka to step in. Light heavyweight champion Pereira will aim to defend his light heavyweight belt for the second time this weekend at UFC 303 while Prochazka looks to avenge his loss to Pereira. The two will meet for the second time following competing for the vacant light heavyweight title in November 2023. Despite both fighters having little time to prepare, the fight is expected to deliver on most expectations.
Two Titans collide Saturday night 👊@AlexPereiraUFC vs @Jiri_BJP
[ LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | SATURDAY | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/N6AZ2suf7t
— UFC (@ufc) June 27, 2024
In their initial bout, Pereira knocked Prochazka out in the second round, earning himself the vacant light heavyweight title. Pereira has been nothing but great since starting his UFC career in November 2021. In just eight UFC fights, he was able to win middleweight and light heavyweight titles. Out of those eight fights, Pereira has defeated five former world champions. Only nine UFC fighters have won a belt in two weight classes and Pereira is one of them. This is without a doubt an extraordinary accomplishment.
Both fighters have picked up wins since their Madison Square Garden meeting. In his last bout, Pereira defeated Hill via TKO, earning himself his first title defense. Just like Pereira, Prochazka won his last fight via TKO, defeating Aleksandar Rakic in the second round of their bout. Don't expect to see much wrestling as both Pereira and Prochazka enjoy a good old-fashioned striking battle. When it comes to striking, Pereira is more technical while Prochazka is extremely unorthodox, unpredictable, and deceptively intelligent in his wild approach to fights.
In the first meeting with Pereira, Prochazka was coming off a year-and-a-half layoff from competing while recovering from a shoulder injury that required multiple surgeries. He averages an impressive 5.75 significant strikes per minute, but he absorbs 5.43 significant strikes per minute as well. On the other hand, Pereira averages 5.10 significant strikes landed per minute in the Octagon, while absorbing only 3.65. He has a 70% takedown defense. Prochazka's biggest asset is his unique style. He moves in a way that is hard, if not impossible, to imitate.
Pereira should follow the same plan he had against Prochazka in their first fight. He's got great calf kicks and should trust those to wear Prochazka down and set him up for the knockout or TKO. On the other hand, it would be wise for Prochazka to mix his striking and wrestling to keep Pereira guessing. While Prochazka has the tools to defeat Pereira, I still think Pereira is going to be victorious again. I think we’re going to see a pretty similar fight this time around as he did in November. That is one of the reasons Pereira is the favorite to win this fight.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brian Ortega, $7800 - vs. Diego Lopes
Of the several changes made just weeks before UFC 303, a high-profile featherweight matchup between No. 3-ranked Brian Ortega and No. 14-ranked Diego Lopes was added as the co-main event. Ortega has gone 8-3-0-1 during his illustrious UFC career as a former title challenger. His opponent, Lopes, has gone 3-1 during his frantic run in the UFC since 2023.
Both men head into their matchup coming off stoppage wins. Ortega most recently appeared at UFC Mexico City where he defeated Yair Rodriguez via third-round submission in a fight where he seemingly hurt his ankle just seconds before the opening bell. It took Ortega a round to find his range, but once he did, he steamrolled Rodriguez, earning himself a “Performance of the Night” bonus along the way. Ortega's record is 16-3 (1 NC) as a professional, but 2-3 in his last five. However, he was fighting the best of the best, with his three losses coming against Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway.
His opponent, Lopes, made his UFC debut against Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 where he lost via decision, even though he had an impressive performance. Since then, Lopes has run off three straight stoppage wins over Sodiq Yusuff, Pat Sabatini, and Gavin Tucker. His latest victory was a first-round knockout over Yusuff, which propelled him into a fight against a former title challenger. This is a significant step up in competition for Lopes. Lopes lands 3.22 significant strikes, absorbs 4.73 significant strikes per minute, and only defends 37% of strikes.
Ortega lands an average of 4.07 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 38%. The former UFC title challenger absorbs 6.54 significant strikes per minute on a defensive striking percentage of 49%. When it comes to wrestling, he averages 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and succeeds on 27% of his takedown attempts. Ortega is without a doubt one of the most durable fighters in the UFC. Considering his toughness and high-level grappling, it would be a surprise if Lopes manages to finish Ortega.
This is arguably the closest fight on this card in terms of matchmaking given both fighters’ extreme skill on the ground with their jiu-jitsu. Neither of these men has lost a fight via submission, and it could turn into a striking match, but it would not be surprising to see Ortega try and wrestle because he has landed at least one takedown in his last five fights against fighters who have a better takedown defense than Lopes.
Yusuff, Sabatini, and Tucker are all solid wins for Lopes, but none of those guys are close to Ortega's level. Overall, this featherweight matchup between Ortega and Lopes has all the makings of an exciting 15-minute battle that could go either way. That being said, my prediction is that Ortega is going to win this fight via unanimous decision. I just think that his experience is going to be too much for Lopes.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Anthony Smith, $7800 - vs. Roman Dolidze
Last weekend, it was announced that Roman Dolidze is stepping in to replace Carlos Ulberg and face Anthony Smith. The reason for Ulberg’s withdrawal was not disclosed. Ulberg was riding a six-fight winning streak before he initially accepted the fight with Smith. The co-main event was originally scheduled between the former UFC light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree. After a series of events, Rountree was replaced by Ulberg and Hill was replaced with Smith. And now, Ulberg is replaced by Dolidze.
After losing to Rountree, Smith got back in the win column back in May when he defeated previously unbeaten Vitor Petrino via first-round guillotine choke. On the other hand, Dolidze is on a two-fight skid. In his last two fights, Dolidze has lost to Marvin Vettori, and most recently, Nassourdine Imavov. This fight is set to take place in the light heavyweight division. Smith will be making his 22nd UFC appearance while Dolidze is set for his 10th UFC appearance.
After an incredible 2022 campaign where he went 3-0 with three stoppage victories, Dolidze has had a tough run. In his lone fight of 2023, Dolidze suffered a controversial decision loss to Vettori at UFC 286. Dolidze got back into the Octagon almost a year later, but the fight didn't go his way as he lost via majority decision to Imavov. His opponent, Smith, is hanging on by a thread, but there's still enough left in the tank where he can still beat up second-tier fighters. On the other hand, Smith is 2-6 in his last eight fights. It will be very difficult for Smith to climb up in the ranks again and challenge a champion.
Both these guys have been rushed into this booking with little to no time to prepare for each other. Smith was getting ready to face Ulberg, a technical striker with solid knockout power. Now, he's getting ready to face a well-rounded fighter in Dolidze. Dolidze's path to victory is to take Smith down and hold him there. But, his cardio has already been a concern and now he's taking a fight up 20 pounds on a week's notice. Just like Dolidze, Smith is an elite grappler, which means he should at least be competitive on the ground, if not outright win those exchanges. Smith had slightly more time to prepare and is considered to be a better striker than Dolidze.
Because his last two fights were close and that wasn't outclassed, I can see why Vegas thinks Dolidze will win this, despite this being a better matchup for Smith. That being said, I'm still going for Smith, who has been fighting in the light heavyweight division for some time now. Considering he's moving up a weight class, Dolidze is going to have a tough test in front of him.
