RADIO
A new fantasy football season is fast approaching. That means it’s time for managers to start preparing for their fantasy football drafts.
While much of the attention is focused on which players to target, it’s arguably more important to recognize which players you need to avoid. You don’t win your league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it. A few bad picks can crush your championship dreams before the season even begins.
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Let’s take a look at the all-bust team that’s filled with players you should avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
QB: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie last year. He finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game and genuinely looked the part as a franchise quarterback.
The Buckeye connection from C.J. Stroud to Noah Brown goes for a 75-yard touchdown. pic.twitter.com/qQ9w5hNPrH
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 5, 2023
His situation further improved when the Texans acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade. He joins Nico Collins and Tank Dell to form arguably the best receiving trio in the league. This sounds great, but it doesn’t change the fact that Stroud offers very little rushing upside.
For him to make a run at the overall QB1, Stroud would have to finish with close to 5,000 passing yards and 40+ passing touchdowns. It’s within the range of outcomes, but it’s not certain the Texans offense will go in that direction.
The team acquired former Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon to improve the ground game. The addition of Mixon (and signing him to a contract extension) shows the team wants more out of its ground attack and might not prefer a pass-happy approach.
While we should expect improvement from Stroud in Year 2, the reality is that it’s more difficult for him to yield a profit at his NFFC ADP than some gamers think.
RB: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs’ 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics.
He finished 45th in Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE), 41st in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in Fantasy Points Data Suite's Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). These are concerning marks, and outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient player.
The team also drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class on pure talent, and the Packers have stated they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film. Lloyd picked up a hamstring injury this summer, but this shouldn’t deter Green Bay from giving him touches in the season if Jacobs continues to struggle.
There’s just a little too much risk to recommend investing in Jacobs this year.
RB: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 was a true breakout season for White as he finished as the PPR RB4.
Rachaad White 31-Yard Touchdown!
pic.twitter.com/2QopotDLFW— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023
Even though White delivered the goods for fantasy managers, things get a little concerning when we look under the hood. Among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished:
- 28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
- 40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Explosive Run Percentage (EXP RUN %)
- 42nd in MTF/ATT
- 44th in PFF’s Rushing Grade
- 49th in RYOE
Here is how White finished in these same metrics as a rookie in 2022 (among 48 rushers with 90+ carries):
- 38th in Exp Run %
- 39th RYOE
- 41st in Elusive Rating
- 46th in MTF/ATT
- 46th in PFF Rushing Grade
Two years into his career, we have enough data to say that White is a below-average back at the NFL level. Should Tampa Bay begin losing games this year, the team might experiment with other options. While he was a reliable asset down the homestretch in 2023, it’s best to fade White in drafts this year.
WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Collins enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 as he set career highs across the board. While he was a bargain in drafts last year, gamers now have to pay a premium for his services. It’s understandable, as Collins’ play was incredible.
His analytical profile was also off the charts. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, his 3.37 yards per route run was second only to Tyreek Hill.
Nico Collins puts the Texans up with a 15-yard TD catch! 🐂
Over 73.5 rec yards and anytime scorer (+150) bettors cash early (odds via @DKSportsbook)
(Via: NFL, NBC)pic.twitter.com/8aVJ7gP2hw
— NBC Sports Bet (@NBCSportsBet) January 13, 2024
Despite the breakout season, there are a few issues that complicate matters. Houston acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade this offseason, and Collins already has second-year receiver Tank Dell to compete with for targets.
Dell is set to return from a leg injury that ended his rookie season. This is a concern for Collins. When both he and Dell were on the field last year, Dell appeared to be the team’s top receiver.
Nico Collins vs. Tank Dell
[in games each played 60%+ of snaps]Target share: 21.0% to 21.4%
Yards per game: 85.9 to 80.3
Air yards share: 25.7% to 35.1%FPG: 18.2 to 18.8
Are you sure you're drafting the correct Texans WR first? pic.twitter.com/wLNZQzAAit
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) August 12, 2024
Diggs now adds further target competition into the mix, and it’s unclear exactly how targets will be divided among these three players. While Collins is undoubtedly talented, paying up for him without knowing how targets will be distributed doesn’t feel like the smartest play.
WR: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp’s 2023 season started on the wrong foot when an August hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve to start the year. When he returned, Kupp didn't seem like the same player. He averaged just under 62 yards per game, and this was his lowest mark since his rookie season.
Now contending for targets with last year’s fantasy football MVP in Puka Nacua, it may be time for fantasy managers to adjust expectations.
It’s also hard to justify taking Kupp when you consider the downward trajectory he’s been on since 2021. He has struggled with injuries each of the last two seasons and turned 31 years old this summer. Kupp is hoping to finally shake the injury bug and return to his previous form.
Matthew Stafford (20) to Cooper Kupp (4)
Los Angeles Rams
62 yards
pic.twitter.com/wrqPwQlwkI— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) December 17, 2023
However, there’s an old rule when it comes to fantasy football. Old players who get hurt usually keep getting hurt. While it’s not unfathomable that Kupp can bounce back, gambling on a 31-year-old receiver who is struggling with injuries/declining play is typically not a wise bet.
TE: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
After losing starting receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, it appeared that Kincaid’s role would expand in 2024. While many expect that to be the case, it may not necessarily happen. There are quite a few new additions to the receiving room, and it’s unclear how things will shake out.
Buffalo added the aforementioned Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel this offseason. Third-year pro Khalil Shakir is in the mix for targets as well.
There’s also a lot of overlap between Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel in terms of usage/where they run their routes. All three players ran over 59% of their routes from the slot in 2023, according to Fantasy Points Data Suite.
The Bills also plan to use rookie Keon Coleman at the X receiver position, but he’s not a strong separator, and such a move may not benefit his skill set. Should the team move Coleman inside in a “big slot” role, that presents even more of an issue for Kincaid.
There’s also the fact that his splits with and without fellow tight end Dawson Knox are concerning.
Data courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite
Games with Knox:
| TPRR | 20% |
| YPRR | 1.48 |
| Target Share | 13.3% |
| Air Yards Share | 9.7% |
| PPR Points Per Game | 7.4 |
| Receptions Per Game | 3.8 |
| Receiving Yards Per Game | 35.6 |
Games without Knox:
| TPRR | 23% |
| YPRR | 1.77 |
| Target Share | 19% |
| Air Yards Share | 19% |
| PPR Points Per Game | 13.8 |
| Receptions Per Game | 6.2 |
| Receiving Yards Per Game | 56.2 |
While there’s a path for a Kincaid breakout, it’s a little murkier than some realize. There are better tight ends with fewer question marks available elsewhere in fantasy drafts.
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