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Is it fair to call one season missing the playoffs a drought?
Retooling after the trade of Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love led the youngest roster in the NFL to the postseason. The offense in particular was a surprise, leaning on Love and a handful of rookie and second-year pass-catchers. The best performer and most talked about fantasy football prospect of that group is Jayden Reed.
But there are almost too many good players in the wide receiver room, which sparks the question: Can you trust Jayden Reed in 2024?
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Jayden Reed's 2023 Season Recap
Efficiency was the theme of Jayden Reed's rookie season because the opportunities weren't exactly plentiful.
The second-round pick out of Michigan State ran 24 routes per game for a total of 385, 60th among NFL wideouts. He was on the field for 56.8% of Green Bay's offensive snaps. Jordan Love looked his way when he was on the field, snagging a 24.4% target rate. Despite the limited snaps and routes, Reed led the Packers in targets per game, receptions, receiving yards, plus touchdowns. He was the WR10 from Week 10 through the end of the season.
Jayden Reed's second TD of the first half! @Packers take a 23-3 lead
📺: #GBvsMIN on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cOt1Gy93Av pic.twitter.com/ot9CR0RipK— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2024
Most of that was not by design. Christian Watson was out of the lineup nearly as often as he was suited up. Aaron Jones missed six games and was limited in a handful of other contests. The responsibility to carry the offense shifted to the arm of the inexperienced Love. He struggled a few games before emerging and continuing the lineage of Packers quarterbacks. Reed and Romeo Doubs were his dependable targets for a large chunk of the season.
When Love wasn't fixated on targeting the rookie, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur drew up rushing opportunities for Reed. 10 of his 11 carries came in a six-week span. While it is a small sample size, Reed averaged over 12 yards per carry on those attempts and scored twice. Once again, his efficiency reached incredible levels. And then Green Bay went away from those designed runs by the end of the season.
In some games (four catches for 46 yards, three carries for 46 yards, and one touchdown on 69% of snaps in Week 11 and eight catches for 27 yards, four carries for 38 yards, and one touchdown on 69% of snaps in Week 14), he's heavily featured in the offense. In others (three targets for zero stats in the Wild Card game against Dallas), he's invisible and underutilized.
Will The Real WR1 In Green Bay Please Stand Up?
"I think you don't have to have a No. 1 receiver. I think it works out well when you can spread the ball out and you got different guys making different plays and you can put 'em in different areas." - Jordan Love
Jordan Love and the Packers don't know who the go-to wide receiver in the Green Bay offense will be. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and even Bo Melton flashed at various times last season. Melton never finished a week as the top fantasy wide receiver for the Packers (although he was the WR6 overall in Week 17). Including the postseason, Reed was the WR1 for Green Bay nine times, Doubs six times, Watson three times, and Wicks once. Although, Wicks nearly matched Reed in yards per route run as a fellow rookie.
Watson, who entered the 2023 season as the WR1, missed eight games with hamstring issues and was a part-time player on three other occasions. He believes they found the root of the problem this offseason: his legs were uneven. Watson and doctors are working to balance out his muscles. If he can stay healthy, the Packers offense will be even more explosive.
Reed lined up in the slot on 71 percent of his offensive snaps last season. Measuring in at 5-foot-11, 187 pounds, it's a role that makes sense. No matter who else in the wide receiver room is healthy or injured, his slot role is secure. What others do impact is Reed's target share. Reed earned 29% of the targets per route run when Watson was injured or sidelined. That number slipped all the way down 18% when Watson and Reed lined up together. When the trio was on the field, Watson led the group of himself, Reed, and Doubs in targets and air yards. As witnessed in the playoffs, Reed wasn't as involved as he was during regular-season games.
The Packers also roster two young tight ends, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, brimming with potential. In the offseason, the team delivered a hefty bag to running back Josh Jacobs. The offense will be balanced and the target share will be diluted.
Can You Trust Jayden Reed For Fantasy Football In 2024?
Slot receivers need volume to produce for fantasy football. Reed averaged about 60 air yards per game. On four receptions per game, that's nothing special, especially when Reed is coming off draft boards early in the sixth round (ADP of 76). That's the most expensive Packers pass-catcher.
But there is the evolution factor. What if Reed develops further into the Deebo Samuel mold? His nickname, after all, is Wisconsin Deebo (although Samuel has nearly 30 pounds on Reed). What if LaFleur schemes the offense around getting the football into the hands of Reed more often and letting No. 11 make the plays?
The likely outcome is that the Packers will utilize all the receivers on the roster. Having a room full of talented, young receivers is great for any offense. It's not great for fantasy football. There's also a chance that the Packers turn to their splashy offseason addition, Jacobs, to be the offensive centerpiece.
Green Bay Packers now have officially signed RB Josh Jacobs to a four-year contract that includes $12.5 million guaranteed.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 14, 2024
Reed is a great player and could very well deliver for fantasy managers in 2024. He's better trusted in best ball leagues, where managers can afford to sit through the games where he doesn't score or break away from defenders after a short catch.
Grabbing a piece of a good offense is a smart strategy in any format. At cost, Reed is a little too pricey in drafts when Wicks (158 ADP) and Doubs (135 ADP) are coming off the board so late.
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