RADIO
In the year 2024, there aren’t a whole lot of backfields that feature just one guy. That’s just not how most NFL teams decide to handle the position these days. However, there are still a few out there. In this article, I won’t highlight the obvious ones. Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Saquon Barkley all project as bell-cow backs for their respective teams this season.
Instead, I’ll dig a bit deeper. In this article, I’ll highlight four running backs that should be bell cows in 2024. All four guys showcased an every-down skill set last season, and all four should once again have the opportunity to do so this season. The question is, why are their ADPs so much lower than the top guys mentioned above?
Well, there’s some risk with these four running backs. One of the teams mentioned wants to get their other running backs more involved. Another running back was a former seventh-round draft choice. Another team took a back in the fourth round of the 2023 Draft. And the final RB is on a new team, with a second-year back that has some juice. Despite all the hype around “the other guy” on their respective teams, these four running backs should once again be bell cows this season. Chase these one-man backfields in 2024.
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Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne very much became a workhorse in his second healthy NFL season. He went from 15.6 opportunities per game with a 60.1% opportunity share in 2022, to 20 opportunities per game with a 75.57% opportunity share in 2023. His snap share and opportunity share last season were the sixth-highest among running backs. Despite the small efficiency dip, Etienne finished as a top-five running back last season. Volume remains king for these guys.
62-YARD TRAVIS ETIENNE TD
📺: #CARvsJAX on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/sFjqko01pD pic.twitter.com/TT31OwdX6m— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023
And there’s no reason to think it won’t happen again in 2024 being as the Jaguars didn’t upgrade the running back room this offseason. D'Ernest Johnson returns on a one-year deal with just $225K guaranteed. Tank Bigsby is also there, but he was one of the worst running backs in the league last season. He averaged just 2.7 yards per touch with a yards per route run (YPRR) of 0.22. Meanwhile, Etienne averaged 4.6 yards per touch with a 1.42 YPRR.
On paper, this Jaguars offensive line has some solid contributors. Their 2023 first-round pick Anton Harrison has a full year under his belt. Guard Ezra Cleveland will spend an entire offseason in Jacksonville after being traded mid-season from the Vikings. The Jaguars also upgraded the center position by signing former Buffalo Bill and Kansas City Chief Mitch Morse. If they can all stay healthy, this offensive line could be much improved in 2024. That would bode well for Etienne, who could improve his efficiency metrics even with the expected high volume.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs entered the 2023 season with Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon as their top three running backs. Pacheco was the early-down bruiser, McKinnon was the third down back, and CEH spelled Pacheco when he needed a breather.
This season, there’s no more McKinnon. His replacement is Keaontay Ingram, who also happens to be one of the worst backs in the league from an efficiency standpoint. That leaves just Pacheco, Edwards-Helaire, and second-year UDFA Deneric Prince as the Chiefs’ primary backs in 2024.
Last season, Pacheco’s opportunity share increased exponentially from his rookie season. He went from a 41.9% opportunity share as a rookie to a 72.4% opportunity share in his second season. What’s even more telling, and probably why the Chiefs felt comfortable letting McKinnon walk, was Pacheco’s production as a pass-catcher.
In 2022, he had a YPRR of 1.02 on just a 19.5% route participation rate. In 2023, his YPRR increased to a much higher route participation rate (36.7%). And that number doesn’t even tell the full story. In four games without McKinnon, Pacheco had a route participation rate of nearly 50%. Remember, McKinnon is no longer with the Chiefs, so it’s very possible we see Pacheco operate as even more of a bell cow in 2024.
If he keeps pass-protecting like this, the Chiefs will never want to take him off the field:
Isiah Pacheco's effort in every phase of the game will always be rewarded. He's not a perfect pass protector, but the WANT TO is there and so important. One of my favorite reps of his from the 2023 season pic.twitter.com/UsirysHTCw
— Daniel Harms🏈 (@InHarmsWay19) June 9, 2024
Pacheco could have a 75% snap share this season (as he did last season without McKinnon) on one of the best offenses in the league. Last season, he had 50 red zone touches which was eighth among running backs. He was also eighth among all players in percentage of his team’s red zone rush attempts at 58.3%. Don’t let his seventh-round draft capital fool you. This is a one-man backfield to chase in 2024.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White isn’t going to blow anyone away with his shiftiness or top-end speed. In fact, in two NFL seasons, he’s had just 10 breakaway runs (runs of 15+ yards). But that’s okay, especially when you look at the sheer number of opportunities he was given last season. White was second among running backs in carries (272) and ninth in targets (70). His snap share (77.4%) was fourth among running backs and his opportunity share (75.3%) was seventh-highest. Simply put, he was a bell cow in 2023.
White finished as RB10 on a per-game basis in PPR scoring last season, yet he’s being drafted as RB14 (ADP of 62.3) on Underdog. I get it, he may not be the most exciting running back, but he might just be one of the safest on the board. He hasn’t missed a game in two seasons and the Buccaneers only added an undersized fourth-rounder in Bucky Irving to the mix. So just like last season, White shouldn’t have very much competition for touches in the backfield.
Only Joe Mixon (80.9%) had a higher percentage of his team’s rush attempts inside the 10-yard line last season than White (76%). Simply put, the Bucs trust their guy when it matters most, and that’s important in fantasy football. High-value touches (targets and red zone opportunities) are gold for running backs. White got the majority of them in 2023 and should once again get the majority of them in 2024. Chase this one-man backfield in 2024.
BAKER TO WHITE. Bucs answer back to even the score.
📺: #TBvsDET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/frRD38BNYS pic.twitter.com/rpFyHbMv6H— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Did you know no player had more carries inside the 10-yard line last season than Joe Mixon (38)? Those 38 carries were 80.9% of the Bengals’ rush attempts inside the 10. That also led the NFL. Not only was Cincinnati’s bell-cow back getting the high-value touches down around the goal line, but he was the only guy on the team getting those touches. Mixon is gone, so now it’s a competition between incomer Zack Moss and second-year back Chase Brown.
Brown did play a bit more down the stretch in his rookie season but never eclipsed a 30% snap share or 22.2% route participation rate. Cincinnati just trusted Mixon, as they had since the day they drafted him in the first round back in 2017. Now it’s Moss that appears to fit like a glove in this Bengals offense.
Per @FantasyPtsData
Most RB Carries From Shotgun in 11 Personnel (2023)
1. Colts, 233 (58%)
2. Bengals, 188 (59%)
3. Eagles, 176 (51%)YPC From Shotgun in 11 Personnel (2023)
Jonathan Taylor (5.24)
Zack Moss (5.20)
Joe Mixon (4.59)
Saquon Barkley (4.54) https://t.co/ud9aOjganM— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 12, 2024
It also doesn’t help Brown’s case that he was one of the worst backs in the league last season in pass protection. Check out the tweet below (courtesy of Adam Levitan at Establish the Run) about how Brown couldn’t even get on the field last season over Trayveon Williams:
Our team been playing around with some new data. Today I learned:
* Chase Brown appeared in 12 games last season. Recorded a grand total of three 3rd-down snaps in those. Trayveon Williams got 33, Joe Mixon 28 in that sample.
Definitely projecting big usage bump all around for…
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) June 18, 2024
However, Brown does have talent. He showed in college that he could be a very productive back. With Moss sitting out Week 1 of the preseason due to an illness, he had the opportunity to showcase that talent. Unfortunately for the second-year back, it wasn't great. He rushed five times for 10 yards and caught his only target for 0 yards. That only tells half the story. His film tells the other half and it isn't pretty:
feels good to be back on this account pic.twitter.com/zQbabpVTAt
— WinksTape (@WinksTape) August 11, 2024
The next day, Moss was back at practice working with the first-team offense, like clockwork.
Meanwhile, Moss was in Indianapolis last season showcasing a unique three-down skill set for the Colts. He played on 85-90% of the snaps in the games Jonathan Taylor missed. When making a bet on which guy will get all the high-value touches vacated by Mixon in 2024, my money is on Moss. He showed he can do it all when given the opportunity and he’s a perfect fit in the Bengals offense. Yet another (cheap) one-man backfield to chase (no pun intended) in 2024.
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