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Rhamondre Stevenson disappointed fantasy football managers last year after having a huge season in 2022. Now, Stevenson has signed a big contract extension with the New England Patriots. How will this affect his fantasy value in 2024?
Even if fantasy managers value Stevenson less after his dud of a season in 2023, the Patriots value him. They added four years to his contract for $36 million.
Will Stevenson up his level of play in 2024 and produce like a top-10 NFL running back? Let's dive in.
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What Did Rhamondre Stevenson Accomplish in 2023?
Stevenson's numbers declined across the board. He saw fewer carries. His rushing yardage dropped from 1,040 yards to 619 yards. He scored one fewer rushing touchdown and one fewer receiving touchdown than in 2022. He saw fewer targets, caught fewer passes, and gained fewer receiving yards.
But the decline of the Patriots offensive line was one of the big reasons Stevenson did worse. In 2023, the Pats line ranked No. 20 in PFF's final offensive line rankings. That was a drop of nine spots from their No. 11 finish in 2022.
Stevenson still averaged 2.1 yards after contact per attempt, the same as he did in 2022, but the offensive line just produced fewer yards before contact for the back. Yards before contact dropped from 2.9 to 1.9.
To be sure, Stevenson shares some of the blame for getting hit near the line of scrimmage. Part of a running back's responsibility is to read the field and avoid defensive linemen before they touch them. But if the Patriots offensive line is better, Stevenson could be more efficient.
Rhamondre Stevenson's Contract Extension
The Patriots signed Stevenson to a four-year extension worth $36 million with $17 million guaranteed. The new contract makes Stevenson the sixth-highest-paid running back in terms of both total value and average annual value (AAV).
Being paid $9 million a year puts Stevenson outside of the top tier of running backs like Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley, who make over $12 million a year. Christian McCaffrey is the highest-paid running back at a $19 million per year AAV.
The contract could keep Stevenson in New England until as long as 2028, by which time the running back will be 30 years old and nearing the end of his career.
Rhamondre Stevenson's Fantasy Football Value in 2024
If Stevenson can return to his 2022 form, he could be a value this season. In 2022, Stevenson finished as the RB7 in PPR. He was boosted by some big games. He scored over 20 PPR points six times, but he only averaged 14.7 points per game and scored fewer than five points three times.
Last season, Stevenson was hurt by having lower volume in addition to less efficiency. Injury caused him to miss five games, but even when he was healthy, he had fewer than 10 carries three times. He only had more than 20 carries in a game twice, both of which sadly came in his last two games before he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 13. Fantasy managers drafting Stevenson will hope that the new coaching regime will lean on him more.
This offseason, Ezekiel Elliott, who led the team in carries last season, left in free agency. But former Commanders running back Antonio Gibson joined the Pats. Gibson averaged 4.1 yards per attempt last season. He's probably a better running back than Elliott, but Stevenson should remain the RB1 even if he's not a bell cow. Gibson's playing time will most likely come on third downs.
The biggest problem for Stevenson's fantasy production in his first three seasons has been the poor quality of the Patriots offense as a whole. He has never scored more than six total touchdowns in a season. Patriots fans are hoping that moving on from Bill Belichick and Mac Jones will help them build a better offense. But even if things work out over the long-term, the team's prospects for 2024 still look sketchy. Rookie quarterbacks typically take time to develop, and the Patriots wide receivers are among the worst in the league.
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