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Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the New Orleans Saints as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
The Saints let go of Pete Carmichael and hired Klint Kubiak as their new offensive coordinator. He spent last year with the San Francisco 49ers and should bring with him elements of his father Gary Kubiak's offense, along with Sean McVay's. That combination should be exciting for Saints fans and fantasy managers. Analysts often complained about issues with the offense in New Orleans last season, and hopefully, we will get a more effective and efficient unit this season. Chris Olave is the big name here, but several other players will be very fantasy-relevant this season. Alvin Kamara is giving fantasy managers pause, and there's little stock being put in at Taysom Hill. Is that correct? We'll discuss it in this article.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. I used the ADP from FantasyPros, which can be found here. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our premium account. Our premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Derek Carr: QB25, ADP 154
In Carr’s first season in New Orleans last year, he averaged 15.3 PPG in the 13 starts he made where he played at least 65% of the snaps. There were three contests he left early due to injury. He also struggled with a shoulder injury early in the season, which he reaggravated in Week 10. The injury first occurred in Week 3 and he played the following week, scoring just 3.2 points. Injury certainly impacted Carr’s performance last year. However, it wasn’t all bad.
Despite being banged up throughout the year, there were some positives. Carr finished 10th in pass attempts, sixth in completion percentage, 13th in passing yards, and 10th in passing touchdowns. His 4.6% touchdown rate ranked 12th, and his 1.5% interception rate was the third lowest in the league. He had a league average (15th) yards per pass attempt at 7.1 and finished 10th in quarterback rating. He also had the sixth-most deep-ball attempts and the ninth-most red-zone attempts. Not all of that translates to fantasy success, and his lack of rushing ability eliminates any chance of a ceiling outcome. However, there are reasons to be optimistic in Year 2.
New Orleans fired Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator and replaced him with Klint Kubiak. He worked under his father, Gary Kubiak, in Denver, under Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota, and most recently under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. We should expect significant changes, with major play-action and pre-snap motion increases, which were rarely utilized in New Orleans last season.
Due to Carr’s lack of mobility, he must get good pocket protection. He didn’t get that last season. The offensive line struggled with injuries and inefficiency. The organization selected Taliese Fuaga out of Oregon State in the first round to solidify its left tackle position. With improved health from the other returning starters, the offensive line should be expected to be better than last season.
With Alvin Kamara getting older, fantasy managers should expect this offense to be pass-centric, as last season. For fantasy, this is great news for Carr. If a quarterback cannot run, like Carr, he needs ample passing volume, and Carr should have that again this year.
His 15.3 PPG average in his 13 “healthy” starts would have been QB24 last season. In 2022, he averaged 15.5 (QB20), and in 2021, he averaged 16.0 (QB16). Given the amount of options at quarterback, many of whom have a higher ceiling than Carr, his price point is fair. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if he slightly outplays his current positional ranking and ends up in the QB18-23, but he won’t outplay his current ranking in a manner that truly impacts winning. However, at his current price, he’s a great QB3 target.
Verdict: Fair Price on Derek Carr
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
Alvin Kamara: RB17, ADP 58
Kendre Miller: RB43, ADP 138
Jamaal Williams: RB82, ADP 270
We can acknowledge that Kamara isn’t who he once was and still admit he’s a fantasy running back. These are two different discussions: his on-field and fantasy values. In reality, Kamara still gets the job done (and then some) for fantasy managers.
Last year, he finished as the RB6 with a 15.0 half-PPR PPG average. He scored more PPG than Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry (among a host of others). In 2022, he was RB19 (12.3 PPG), and in 2021, he was RB5 (16.2 PPG). How’s he able to accomplish this? He catches a lot of passes.
Since 2021, Kamara has been third among running backs in targets (230, 5.6 per game) and receptions (179, 4.4 per game). Those per-game averages equate to 95 targets and 75 receptions. While Kamara’s rushing efficiency may be waning, he remains one of the league’s best pass-catching backs. Last year, he had a 19.3% target share (second highest among running backs), 56.8% route participation rate (seventh), and a 1.73 yards per route run average (fourth).
In 2022, he finished third in target share among running backs (18.2%), second in route participation (62.6%), and sixth in yards per route run (1.76). It was more of the same in 2021 when he ranked first in target share (20.2%), first in route participation (67.2%), and fifth in yards per route run (1.83). It certainly helps that he plays with a quarterback who targets his running backs at a high rate.
Differentiating between quick and extended checkdowns via @FantasyPtsData
- Russ and Fields run around and develop nothing, eventually settling for the checkdown
- Carr checks down a ton with a much faster time to throw. I guess he's excited. pic.twitter.com/2LDmfIdWk8
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 15, 2024
Kamara has continued to rack up a ton of high-value touches. These are typically defined as receptions and red-zone touches. We’ve already touched on his appeal in the passing game, but Kamara also had 46 red-zone touches last year, the ninth most among running backs. He managed to accomplish that despite missing four games last season. While he isn’t the same explosive player he used to be, Kamara continues to monopolize the touches that matter for fantasy football. Given his age and efficiency issues, it’s fair to have some concerns, but those are more than baked into his price. Kamara’s cost is more than fair.
That brings us to Kendre Miller. He was a third-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and hardly played last season. He appeared in just eight games and only played more than 10 snaps in any one game four times. There were three games where he received at least 10 touches, and they were the only three games in which he played more than 30% of the snaps. In those three games, Miller combined for 34 carries, 144 yards, and one touchdown. He also had six targets, six receptions, and 59 yards.
He averaged 4.2 yards per carry, 9.8 yards per reception, and 5.1 yards per touch. He was inactive the first two weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury and missed an additional seven games due to an ankle sprain. Miller suffered an MCL sprain in the college football playoffs and didn’t participate in predraft workouts. He wasn’t 100% throughout training camp in his rookie season, but he should have the opportunity to grab the No. 2 role this season. He’s the most likely beneficiary of a Kamara injury or any reduced role he might see due to his rushing ineffectiveness. If Kamara were to get hurt, Miller would become a top-24 running back. His contingency value is substantial.
Williams is a relic. In his younger years, he was a quality running back. He wasn’t explosive and he didn’t generate big plays, but he was reliable, dependable, and consistent. Those traits made him a favorite among the coaching staff. However, as he’s aged, that lack of explosiveness has caught up with him. If it weren’t for that ridiculous contract the Saints gave him last offseason, he’d probably be unemployed. Fantasy managers can avoid Williams this season.
Verdict: Fair Price on Alvin Kamara, Buy Kendre Miller, Sell Jamaal Williams
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Chris Olave: WR11, ADP 17
Rashid Shaheed: WR58, ADP 135
Olave has yet to live up to his current positional ranking, but it’s all right there in front of him. As a rookie in 2021, Olave finished as the WR25 with a 11.0 half-PPR PPG average. That season, he posted the following stats:
- 119 targets (20th)
- 72 receptions (26th)
- 1,042 yards (17th)
- 26.7% target share (15th highest among receivers)
- 29.3% target rate (10th)
- 1,670 air yards (eighth)
- 40.8% air yard share (third)
- 29 deep targets (fourth)
- 2.57 yards per route run (10th)
- 8.8 yards per target (27th)
- 2.26 yards per team pass attempt (ninth)
He was sensational. His fantasy value was pulled down by finding the end zone four times and having just 27 red-zone targets and five end-zone targets. However, as far as rookie seasons go, there was every reason in the world to buy into a breakout in 2023. Unfortunately, that didn’t come to pass. He finished as the WR22 with an 11.5 half-PPR PPG average, but his expected PPG average was much higher than last season. Due to his limited utilization in the red zone as a rookie, his actual PPG average was mostly in line with his expected PPG average. In 2023, his expected PPG average was 13.5, WR11.
Once again, Olave found the end zone four times, but his expected touchdowns were 6.5. His red-zone targets increased to 34 (eighth most), and his end-zone targets increased to 10 (18th). We briefly discussed Carr’s shoulder injuries last season, negatively impacting Olave. According to PFF, Olave’s expected receiving yardage was 1,215, but he finished with just 1,067. Unsurprisingly, Olave finished with 1,058 unrealized air yards, third most among receivers.
Olave’s target share last year was 25.2%, again displaying elite target-earning potential. He also posted his second 2.00+ yards per route run average. Olave certainly has the talent and the potential to finish as a top-12 receiver; the utilization was there last season. Fantasy managers need to have it all put together.
Rashid Shaheed has never had a season with over 75 targets or 50 receptions. Juwan Johnson has never had a season with 65 targets or 45 receptions. A.T. Perry didn’t even play 350 snaps last season. Olave will be a target hog in 2024, and with the hire of Klint Kubiak and better health from Carr, Olave should finally realize all that potential.
New Orleans under former OC Pete Carmichael: 32nd in pre-snap motion
New OC Klint Kubiak comes from SF: 1st in pre-snap motion https://t.co/UZDYFcx51r
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 21, 2024
Shaheed should be expected to be the team’s No. 3 target-earner behind Olave and Kamara. In 2022, he posted a 19.3% target rate; last year, he had a 17.5% target rate. That gives fantasy managers a window of what we can expect from Shaheed as a full-time player, something he’s never done before. Just this past season, he played only 46% of the snaps.
On 600 attempts, if Shaheed has a 90% route participation and an 18.5% rate, he’d finish with roughly 100 targets. This is likely Shaheed’s ceiling in regards to target potential. In the brightest of outcomes, maybe he could flirt with 110. Based on his 9.6 yards per target average from 2023, he’d finish with around 960 yards on 100 targets. However, it’s important to note we’re working with a limited sample and with a bigger role; otherwise, his excellent efficiency could decrease to some extent, which is typical.
We have a 10 game sample on Rashid Shaheed registering at least an 80% route participation rate:
- 12.1 PPR points per game
- 18% target share
- 28% air yardage shareFor reference, Jordan Addison had an 18% target share and 28% air yardage share.
WRs in a similar PPR range: pic.twitter.com/iEYrqz431r
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 23, 2024
Shaheed, however, has shown potential in his short spurts. This past season, he posted a 1.68 yards per route run average (44th), 9.6 yards per target average (17th), and 15.6 yards per reception average (15th). As a rookie, on just 176 routes, Shaheed had averages of 2.77, 14.4, and 17.4, respectively. Given the lack of options in New Orleans, Shaheed's price point should appeal to fantasy managers.
He’s very much a boom-or-bust player. He finished with four weekly finishes inside the top 20, including three top-12 weeks, but every other week was outside WR50. He was a part-time player, and more routes and snaps will increase his floor. The weekly upside is appealing at a WR58 price.
Verdict: Fair Price on Chris Olave, Buy Rashid Shaheed
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Taysom Hill: TE17, ADP 156
Juwan Johnson: TE23, ADP 182
Hill is a unicorn in fantasy football. Some fantasy managers love him, and others despise him for thinking he’s cheap. It doesn’t matter your opinion; he’s here and relevant -- especially now. News dropped in early June that Johnson would require foot surgery, and the team is hopeful he’ll be back by the start of the season. That doesn’t sound entirely optimistic. Due to these, it won’t be surprising to see Hill’s ADP rise while Johnson’s falls.
“Folks. I don't know how else to put this, but the Taysom Hill element to this Saints offense has major potential. Today we saw him being used as a halfback more and more. He had three plays where he was the running back and took tosses to the left and right…He was even a… https://t.co/t2GEy60fR8
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) June 6, 2024
Last year, Hill finished as the TE13 with a 7.8 half-PPR PPG average. While that doesn’t sound very exciting, and for most TEs in that 12-15 range, it isn’t, Hill’s different. Most tight ends in that 12-15 range lack upside. They get you 6-13 points a week, and that’s it. Hill is not most tight ends. He had six weeks where he finished in the top 10, four weeks inside the top five, and one week as the No. 1 tight end overall. He had four weeks scoring 14 or more points, two weeks scoring more than 18, and one scoring 22 or more.
Yes, he bombed multiple weeks. He didn’t even place inside the top-30 tight ends in six weeks. However, the difference between TE40 and TE15 is about four points, and the difference between TE15 and TE5 is eight. Hill, more so than any other tight end in the 15-20 range, can impact weekly matchups. The same was true in 2022 as well.
He had eight weeks, after which he finished as a top-12 option. That includes six in the top 10, five in the top six, three in the top three, and two No. 1 overall finishes. In 2022, he finished as the TE6 with a 9.2 half-PPR PPG average. How many tight ends being drafted around Hill will give fantasy managers five weeks as a top-five tight end? The answer is most likely none.
Johnson potentially being out opens up another avenue for Hill. Last year, Hill set career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. In 2022, he had just 13 targets, nine receptions, and 77 receiving yards. This past year, that ballooned to 40 targets, 33 receptions, 291 yards, and two touchdowns. He had a five-week span where he racked up 23 targets, 18 receptions, and 143 yards. Those per-game averages across 17 games would equal 78 targets, 61 receptions, and 486 yards. That may not sound like a lot, but combined with annual 85-100 carries and strong red-zone utilization, he’s got the chance to be a top-eight tight end.
Before Johnson’s foot injury, he was becoming one of my favorite late-round tight ends to throw a dart at. That is because there is no firm No. 3 target behind Olave and Kamara. Theoretically, that person could have been Johnson, just as it could have been Shaheed. However, Johnson’s injury makes him a tough player to bet on.
His career-best seasonal targets per game average is 4.54, or roughly 77 over 17 games. Betting on Johnson before the injury was a low-cost bet, as was banking on a career year from Johnson. Making that bet with him missing training camp and undergoing foot surgery 75 days before the season starts is bad. Fantasy managers have no choice but to avoid Johnson now. There are better dart throws to make than targeting a 28-year-old tight end, fresh off foot surgery, who has yet to have more than 65 targets, 45 receptions, or 510 yards in a season.
Verdict: Buy Taysom Hill, Sell Juwan Johnson
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