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Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Kansas City Chiefs as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
The Chiefs routinely have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and that'll happen when your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. This offseason, they've also added two high-level receivers, Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, who will help give this offense more speed and explosiveness, which it lacked last season. Rashee Rice's pending suspension is one fantasy managers must track, but Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce are primed to be elite fantasy assets again this season.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. I used the ADP from FantasyPros, which can be found here. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our Premium account. Our Premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our Premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Patrick Mahomes: QB3, ADP 36
From 2018 to 2022, Mahomes had a 6.5% touchdown rate and an 8.1 yard per attempt (YPA) average. In 2023, he finished with a 4.5% touchdown rate and a 7.0 YPA average, both career lows. In fact, his lowest touchdown rate before 2023 was 5.4%, and his lowest YPA was 7.4.
If Mahomes had just performed at his worst level before 2023, he would’ve had an extra five touchdowns and 235 yards. That would’ve added 29.4 fantasy points to his total or around 1.8 PPG. Had Mahomes performed at his 2018-2022 career average, he would’ve had 12 more touchdowns and 653 yards. This would’ve added 74.1 fantasy points, or 4.6 PPG, to his total. 4.6 more PPG would’ve taken Mahomes’ 2023 PPG average of 18.4 to 23.0, which would’ve been right in line with QB2 Jalen Hurts (23.1).
4. PATRICK MAHOMES
While the league's best player posted a 4.5% TD rate in 2023 (above the league mean for the season), that mark was 1.9% below his career rate entering the season.
He was a dink-and-dunk machine in 2023 and Chiefs receivers struggled to secure the ball,…
— Matt Okada (@MattOkada) June 5, 2024
Last year, his starting receivers in Week 1 were Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. This year, it’ll be Rashee Rice (possible suspension), Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown. In five seasons, Toney and Moore have combined for 1,254 yards and four touchdowns in 62 games. In Hollywood’s last two seasons, he had 1,283 yards and seven touchdowns in 26 games.
Patrick Mahomes was already alone at the top of the quarterback hierarchy. Then he decided to become an unstoppable quick game passer for good measure.
For all the ups and downs the Chiefs offense had last year, Mahomes himself was almost perfect.https://t.co/4ZTupymc7x pic.twitter.com/zI3xUKK6W3
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) June 24, 2024
In 2023, MVS played 618 snaps, while Rice played 622. Rice had 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 yards, and seven touchdowns, while MVS had 42 targets, 21 receptions, 315 yards, and one touchdown. We haven’t even touched on first-round pick Xavier Worthy yet. Yeah, we’re buying Patrick Mahomes.
Verdict: Buy Patrick Mahomes
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
Isiah Pacheco: RB13, ADP 39
Pacheco didn’t get the start in Week 1 due to an offseason wrist injury. Excluding Week 1 and adding their four playoff games, Pacheco played 17 total games last season. He finished with 278 carries, 1,225 yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. He also had 57 targets, 52 receptions, 273 yards, and two touchdowns. That equates to a 14.57 half-PPR PPG average. Last year that would’ve been the RB8, yet he’s being drafted as the RB13. It gets even better, though!
From Weeks 1-8, Pacheco averaged 3.4 targets and 3.0 receptions per game. Over 17 games, that would equal 57 targets and 51 receptions. However, his averages increased from Weeks 9-17 to 3.7 targets per game and 3.3 receptions. That would be 62 targets and 57 receptions over 17 games. The best part is that it wasn’t just variance. In Weeks 1-8, Pacheco did not have a single game with a route participation rate over 35%. He had five in Weeks 9-17, and what happened in three games where Jerick McKinnon didn’t play was even better.
Chiefs RB Depth Chart:
Isiah Pacheco (averaged 22.1 FPG in four games without Jerick McKinnon last year)
---
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Deneric Prince
La'Mical Perine
Louis Reese-Zammit
Keaontay Ingram
Hassan Hall
Emani Bailey
Carson Steele— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 8, 2024
McKinnon is currently a free agent, and the backup is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Fantasy managers should expect Pacheco in a true three-down role in 2024. Edwards-Helaire will be a change of pace back to give Pacheco a breather, but he’s unlikely to vulture any high-value touches, such as targets and goal-line carries. This makes Pacheco one of the better bargains in the earlier rounds. He has true top-10 potential, and it’s not out of the question that he finishes top-five.
Verdict: Buy Isiah Pacheco
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Marquise Brown: WR36, ADP 69
Rashee Rice: WR39, ADP 80
Xavier Worthy: WR41, ADP 83
Fantasy managers have likely taken the concerns regarding a possible (likely) Rice suspension too far. From Weeks 12-Super Bowl, Rice averaged 13.7 half-PPR PPG. In those 10 games, Rice had 89 targets, 69 receptions, 780 yards, and four touchdowns. Using his per-game averages from these 10 contests, Rice was on pace for 159 targets, 117 receptions, 1,326 yards, and 7 touchdowns. His 13.7 half-PPR PPG average would have placed him as the WR13 for the 2023 season. From Weeks 12-17, Rice finished as the weekly WR4, WR26, WR12, WR10, WR38, and WR16.
Once we get into round seven, how many players possess the kind of upside that Rice displayed over the final 10 games of the Chiefs’ season? The answer is not many. While I think it’s fair to expect a 4-8 game suspension, likely landing around six, the seventh round often consists of your flex-level players. Such a player can easily be replaced with later picks or waiver wire additions. In that sense, waiting for Rice’s top-20 upside for six games is easy.
prior to 2023, only SIX Rookies had posted a 25%+ Target Rate and 2.25+ Yards per Route Run on 200+ Routes
ALL have posted a 14+ PPG Season
and ALL but Chris Olave have posted a 16+ PPG Season
in 2024, Rashee Rice did it…
and you can now BUY for CHEAP pic.twitter.com/y2pmSFqgxj
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) June 7, 2024
Brown has shown the ability to earn targets. From 2021-2023, he is averaging 8.4 targets per game, equating to 143 over 17 games. He has struggled with efficiency in Arizona for the last two years, but he’s also been hampered by injuries to himself and quarterback Kyler Murray. However, his best fantasy finishes in half-PPR PPG were WR23 (2021) and WR25 (2022). Now entering his sixth season in the NFL, it’s fair to say he is who he is now.
That’s not to say he can’t outplay his current WR36 ADP ranking, but it’s not likely to be significantly so. Quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Kyler Murray are all going after Brown. Diontae Johnson is sure to have more targets than Brown this season. While Brown’s price isn’t terrible, there are certainly other players on the board I’d prefer. You can even make a strong case that Christian Watson at WR42, with an ADP of 89, is getting more bang for your buck than Brown.
Much like Brown, Worthy’s price isn’t outrageous. However, it’s hard to imagine a rookie receiver with the kind of target competition he has in Brown, Rice, and Travis Kelce emerging as a consistent fantasy weapon. When Rice is suspended, I suspect Kelce will be the clear No. 1 target, Brown the No. 2, and Worthy the No. 3.
Don’t let the 4.21 distract you. Xavier Worthy is a good WR who happens to be fast. pic.twitter.com/p0Go8BxtRm
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) March 20, 2024
Once Rice returns, Worthy will fall to fourth on the target hierarchy. Maybe by that time, he’s played his way to being even with Brown, in which case he’d be the No. 3A or No. 3B. Either way, Worthy is a sell for me. Other receivers going behind Brown and Worthy are Christian Watson (WR42), Ladd McConkey (WR43), Keon Coleman (WR46), and Brian Thomas Jr. (WR48). I’d rather have them at cost than Brown and Worthy.
Verdict: Buy Rashee Rice and Sell Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Travis Kelce: TE2, ADP 31
Sam LaPorta just edged out Kelce for TE1 honors last year in half-PPR scoring, averaging 11.6 to Kelce's 11.5. However, if we include Weeks 1-17 and the NFL playoffs, Kelce's half-PPR PPG average jumps to 12.9, while LaPorta's goes to 11.3. We'll stick with Weeks 1-17, though. During that time, Kelce's expected half-PPR PPG average was 12.0, first among tight ends. LaPorta's was 10.2, tied for fifth. The number one reason for the discrepancy is touchdowns.
Kelce scored five on 117 targets, while LaPorta scored nine on 111. Kelce's expected touchdowns were 7.7, almost three more than he scored. LaPorta's was 6.1, almost three fewer than he scored. Kelce had more targets than LaPorta and finished with more red zone targets and end zone targets. Let's stop focusing on LaPorta for a second. In the past three seasons before 2023, Kelce hadn't scored fewer than eight touchdowns in a season. Therefore, we need to determine if Kelce scoring only five touchdowns last year was just noise or something to be concerned with.
| Year | Targets Per Game | Red Zone Targets Per Game | End Zone Targets Per Game | Touchdowns | TD Rate |
| 2023 | 7.80 | 1.67 | 0.47 | 5 | 4.2% |
| 2022 | 8.94 | 2.50 | 0.56 | 12 | 8.4% |
| 2021 | 8.40 | 1.53 | 0.20 | 8 | 6.3% |
| 2020 | 9.27 | 1.93 | 0.80 | 11 | 7.9% |
| 2020-2022 | 8.87 | 2.00 | 0.52 | 31 | 7.6% |
In the table above, you can see his targets, red zone targets, and end zone targets per game averages from 2020-2023. It also includes his 2020-2022 average. You'll also see his touchdown rate for each season and his three-year average from 2020-2022. As you can see, his target numbers align with his three-year average. His targets per game dropped by one, his red zone targets dropped by 0.33, and his end zone targets dropped by 0.05 per game. Those numbers do not come close to explaining why he went from scoring 12, 8, and 11 touchdowns to just five. His 2020-2022 touchdown rate was just 7.6%, but in 2023, he scored just 4.2%. Considering Mahomes' touchdown rate from this year, it's safe to say both players are in store for a major rebound this season.
Verdict: Buy Travis Kelce
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